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NYC Area February 1st-2nd OBS and Discussion


earthlight

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latest surface analysis has the high north of VT one MB weaker at 1033. Still stronger than progged by both the 12z GFS and NAM for this hour. Also looks like its starting to become elongated and merge with high pressure moving eastward north of the lakes. Looks like a bannana high setting up like was origionally modeled. Overall I think the trends are good. Would have liked to see that high hold steady north of VT but a 1 mb flucuation is not that big of a deal if it holds steady from here.

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Hey help a novice out-- how is this a trend? and how is it good? means more frozen precip?

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Ice Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1123 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH

WEDNESDAY...

NJZ002-004-103>105-107-NYZ067>070-020600-

/O.CAN.KOKX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110203T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KOKX.IS.W.0001.110201T1623Z-110202T2300Z/

WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-

WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-

NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-

1123 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM

WARNING...WHICH REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WARNING THAT WAS IN

EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND

NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A 1/4 TO 1/2 AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BY

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING

RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS

EVENING. WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE

REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE

WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF

THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY

EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVELING

CONDITIONS...WITH TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES LIKELY BEING

FELLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS

WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY

DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU

MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR

VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL

LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT

ADD TO THE DANGER.

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It wasn't expected so early. Temps were expected to crash late this afternoon and evening as the weak low off the NJ coast moved eastward and winds turned to the north.

The temps crashing over Brooklyn/Queens appears to be related to the coastal front moving slowly SE.

A few WeatherBug stations in southern Brooklyn and Queens have seen temps drop 4 degrees from their daily high! Also, the coastal front is getting closer to JFK - the station in Jamaica, Queens is only about 6 miles north of JFK. The coastal front appears to be oriented SW to NE, because the temp. drop has just made it to west-central Nassau (Floral Park) within the past 10 minutes.

Midwood, Brooklyn: http://weather.weath...6286&stat=BRKMD

East New York, Brooklyn: http://weather.weatherbug.com/NY/Brooklyn-weather.html?zcode=z6286&stat=BROKN

Jamaica, Queens: http://weather.weatherbug.com/NY/Jamaica-weather.html?zcode=z6286&stat=JMCST

Fresh Meadows, Queens: http://weather.weath...6286&stat=QNSFP

Everything seems to be much quicker, as the change to sleet and freezing rain wasnt expected until 10 AM either-- looks like the cool down has also sped up. I wonder what this means for later today, tonight and tomorrow.

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Ice Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1123 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH

WEDNESDAY...

Just saw that. Wonder if Mt Holly will follow suite at some point for the N&W parts of the CWA. Will be a fine line between sleet and freezing rain and eventually the already discussed push NW of the surface freezing line.

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NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-

SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-

EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-

NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-

KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-

NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

1123 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6

PM EST WEDNESDAY. THIS REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WARNING THAT WAS

IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW

JERSEY...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN

CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...BETWEEN 1/10 AND 1/4 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BY

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...SNOW HAS MIXED WITH AND CHANGED TO SLEET AND SOME

FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH PLAIN DRIZZLE ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE

IMMEDIATE OCEAN-FACING COASTS. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET

WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE

WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL

CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY

CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME

UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGEOVER WEDNESDAY...WHICH

WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ICING AMOUNTS.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ICE

ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL DURING THE

WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD KNOCK DOWN

SOME TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

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Precip. will be over by about noon in NYC, at the time OKX says a change to rain will be occurring.

NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-

SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-

EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-

NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-

KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-

NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

1123 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* TIMING...SNOW HAS MIXED WITH AND CHANGED TO SLEET AND SOME

FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH PLAIN DRIZZLE ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE

IMMEDIATE OCEAN-FACING COASTS. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET

WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE

WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL

CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY

CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME

UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGEOVER WEDNESDAY...WHICH

WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ICING AMOUNTS.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ICE

ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL DURING THE

WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD KNOCK DOWN

SOME TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

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Ice Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1123 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH

WEDNESDAY...

NJZ002-004-103>105-107-NYZ067>070-020600-

/O.CAN.KOKX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110203T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KOKX.IS.W.0001.110201T1623Z-110202T2300Z/

WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-

WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-

NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-

1123 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM

WARNING...WHICH REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WARNING THAT WAS IN

EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND

NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A 1/4 TO 1/2 AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BY

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING

RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS

EVENING. WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE

REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE

WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF

THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY

EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVELING

CONDITIONS...WITH TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES LIKELY BEING

FELLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS

WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY

DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU

MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR

VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL

LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT

ADD TO THE DANGER.

No mention of plain rain anywhere. Interesting but as much as I hate ice, I am glad the potential for no plain rain at all from this is still on the table. Watch those high pressure areas in Canada. They will be the tell all about how this thing goes for this region.

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StormTotalIceFcst.png

Extrapolating that into NNJ and NW NJ and I start to cringe at what may happen between 12AM & 12PM Wednesday. Hopefully we can keep ice accumulations at or below 0.5". If so we should avoid widespread problems. If they climb to 0.6 or 0.7" then things get a bit more criticial as more widespread disruptions may develop. Time will tell.

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I'm a bit puzzled by Upton here they are forecasting 1/4 inch of ice here and they canceled the WSW. I know ice storm warning is .5 inches but why didn't they leave up the WSW that they issued just 7 hours ago? Also they are still saying 4.9 inches of snow here in Manhattan...

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I think the temp. sensor at LGA is messed up. Bayside down to 26F, Elmhurst down to 28F, Astoria down to 26.5F and LGA is still at 30F with no temp. drop at all?

http://weather.weatherbug.com/NY/Elmhurst-weather.html?zcode=z6286&stat=IS5WC

http://weather.weatherbug.com/NY/Bayside-weather.html?zcode=z6286&stat=BYSD1

Temps down to 26.5 here and have sleet now mixing in with drizzle.

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