Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Look at the text printout. the NAM has NYC temps at 7am of -1.5C, GFS is +1.1 C at the same time GFS is colder then NAM. It has the freezing line on NYC at hour 24 (7am tomorrow) with .50" of liquid that fell already. After this, only .25" of rain before it ends. This is for areas not facing south shores. NYC, Northern Queens, North Shore of LI. South of there, its less ice and more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Look at the text printout. the NAM has NYC temps at 7am of -1.5C, GFS is +1.1 C at the same time Amazing what a difference of 2 degrees in a forecast can make this time of year. Rest of the year no would care the difference between the two. Just one reason winter events are such difficult and often touch forecast situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Look at the text printout. the NAM has NYC temps at 7am of -1.5C, GFS is +1.1 C at the same time I don't think either will be right through each and every step of the time period as far as temperatures as well as other things like High pressure positioning and strength. Both models are already wrong about the strength and positioning of the highs in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Look at the text printout. the NAM has NYC temps at 7am of -1.5C, GFS is +1.1 C at the same time What I should have said is GFS has precip moving faster and ending quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm keeping an eye on temps here, and for the moment I'm still stuck at 32 with freezing drizzle. It seems temps have leveled off, they were rising steadily until 32....now just staying there...at least for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm getting quite concerned right now about ice for points 20 miles north and west of the city. That warm punch at the mid-levels is clearly making itself known. The only saving grace right now may be that their is dynamic cooling taking place when the precip intensity picks up. If the precip is mod/heavy late tonight, it may be enough to temporary cool the column and produce snow. If not, its going to be a sleet/freezing rain fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Huge flakes, +sN about 15min ago. Moderate SNOW pellets right now on 84, surprised things aren't plowed much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS is colder then NAM. It has the freezing line on NYC at hour 24 (7am tomorrow) with .50" of liquid that fell already. After this, only .25" of rain before it ends. This is for areas not facing south shores. NYC, Northern Queens, North Shore of LI. South of there, its less ice and more rain. Rain is definitely better than ice. The roads are slick as it is. We got about as much snow out of this as we did from the clipper. It's already above freezing and has been above freezing for over an hour now. Up around 34 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm keeping an eye on temps here, and for the moment I'm still stuck at 32 with freezing drizzle. It seems temps have leveled off, they were rising steadily until 32....now just staying there...at least for now Haha, Ive been above freezing for the last hour and a half-- about 34 and still rising quickly. And this is on a north wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looking at radar and model forecasts is appears first shot of warm advection precip is done for our area as steadier precip is well NE of us now. I agree afternoon should see intermittent very light feeezing drizzle/sleet. Looks like next round does not arrive until near midnight for NW NJ and thinking that is will primarirly be freezing rain though more sleet at the start I would think. I am anticpating the roads to be a real mess by sunrise tomorrow when the question becomes do we break 32 at some point tomorrow, thinking down here in SE part of Sussex County we eventaully break 32 at some point (probably late morning) but the damage may have been done by that point. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out and lucky that I work out of the home so I don't have a commute to worry about. Nice almost due northerly wind right down the hudson valley into NNJ. That is a trend to keep an eye on for part two later tonight. Rest of today is intermitten periods of snow/sleet/freezing rain for NNJ. Suspect by early afternoon a real lull with develop with just patch freezing drizzle till later this evening / tonight. Will be hour by hour situation tonight into tomorrow with regard to sleet vs freezing rain vs the approach of the change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Haha, Ive been above freezing for the last hour and a half-- about 34 and still rising quickly. And this is on a north wind. Been in the mid-20's since last night. http://weather.weatherbug.com/NJ/Cliffside%20Park-weather.html?zcode=z6286 Your location is hurting you temperature wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Moderate snow at Danbury Fair, no more of that snow pellet?graupel mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Temps have already begun to drop significantly over the northern half of Brooklyn, northern third of Queens and NW Nassau with winds shifting to N or even NNW. 2 stations in Brooklyn dropped 2 degrees in a half hour. http://www.wundergro...p?ID=KNYBROOK37 http://www.wundergro...p?ID=KNYBROOK22 http://www.wundergro...p?ID=KNYMIDDL23 http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KNYROSLY5 http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KNYPORTW3 Was this expected? I thought temps would be on a slow rise all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Been in the mid-20's since last night. http://weather.weath...tml?zcode=z6286 Your location is hurting you temperature wise. I would be upset if it was going to be snow, but I'd rather have this over ice. The roads are slippery as it is But what I'm interested in is if this northerly wind drops temps below freezing again, there's going to be black ice everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Was this expected? I thought temps would be on a slow rise all day. Yes. All models had temps spiking thru 1pm and then a steady drop until midnight, when the 2nd batch hits us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Up to 34 degrees now here in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Haha, Ive been above freezing for the last hour and a half-- about 34 and still rising quickly. And this is on a north wind. Yea, I'm closer to the north shore than I am to the south... Wind here is more or less non-existant right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 24* with heavy sleet in Wayne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 We rarely break freezing with these types of events in NW NJ until the precip nearly comes to an end. Even then I am not convinced we will get above freezing. If this holds true in this case as well, we may have very serious icing problems. Looking at radar and model forecasts is appears first shot of warm advection precip is done for our area as steadier precip is well NE of us now. I agree afternoon should see intermittent very light feeezing drizzle/sleet. Looks like next round does not arrive until near midnight for NW NJ and thinking that is will primarirly be freezing rain though more sleet at the start I would think. I am anticpating the roads to be a real mess by sunrise tomorrow when the question becomes do we break 32 at some point tomorrow, thinking down here in SE part of Sussex County we eventaully break 32 at some point (probably late morning) but the damage may have been done by that point. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out and lucky that I work out of the home so I don't have a commute to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sparta, NW NJ 11:00AM Intermittent Light Sleet ~2" snow/sleet Temp: 17 DP: 14 Wind: N @ 2 Pressure: 1026.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 We rarely break freezing with these types of events in NW NJ until the precip nearly comes to an end. Even then I am not convinced we will get above freezing. If this holds true in this case as well, we may have very serious icing problems. Both you or Keith could be correct. For my specific location in the SE part of the county I have a much better chance of reaching freezing perhaps even before precip ends. Cannot not say with any certainty that will or will not happen. It will be a race between the 32 degree line coming NW, the end of precip come east and the ability of whatever HP to our north can continue to filter in low level cold air. Sleet and probably freezing rain seem rather likely 12AM-6AM. After that the race will be on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 winds have also shifted more northerly here with the temp dropping from 31 to 28.7 over the last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 winds have also shifted more northerly here with the temp dropping from 31 to 28.7 over the last hour or so. Those are the type of trends we need to watch to develop and more so see how well they can hold or continue this evening and tonight. Big key to round two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It wasn't expected so early. Temps were expected to crash late this afternoon and evening as the weak low off the NJ coast moved eastward and winds turned to the north. The temps crashing over Brooklyn/Queens appears to be related to the coastal front moving slowly SE. A few WeatherBug stations in southern Brooklyn and Queens have seen temps drop 4 degrees from their daily high! Also, the coastal front is getting closer to JFK - the station in Jamaica, Queens is only about 6 miles north of JFK. The coastal front appears to be oriented SW to NE, because the temp. drop has just made it to west-central Nassau (Floral Park) within the past 10 minutes. Midwood, Brooklyn: http://weather.weath...6286&stat=BRKMD East New York, Brooklyn: http://weather.weatherbug.com/NY/Brooklyn-weather.html?zcode=z6286&stat=BROKN Jamaica, Queens: http://weather.weatherbug.com/NY/Jamaica-weather.html?zcode=z6286&stat=JMCST Fresh Meadows, Queens: http://weather.weath...6286&stat=QNSFP Was this expected? I thought temps would be on a slow rise all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 down to 29.2 here in edion..after a high of 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Surface temps are cold/cooling, how the upper atmosphere temps look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 thats a pretty nasty band along 84 in CT. i know Quincy reported burst of HVY SNW with it. wonder if most of it along the CT shoreline is sleet though. anyone along the CT shore report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Surface temps are cold/cooling, how the upper atmosphere temps look? Warmer / warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 latest surface analysis has the high north of VT one MB weaker at 1033. Still stronger than progged by both the 12z GFS and NAM for this hour. Also looks like its starting to become elongated and merge with high pressure moving eastward north of the lakes. Looks like a bannana high setting up like was origionally modeled. Overall I think the trends are good. Would have liked to see that high hold steady north of VT but a 1 mb flucuation is not that big of a deal if it holds steady from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Surface temps are cold/cooling, how the upper atmosphere temps look? torching. if you see more zr than snow or sleet, then you know the depth of the warm layer is pretty thick. but the cold wedge from the arctic high is keeping temps near the ground very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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