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NYC Area February 1st-2nd OBS and Discussion


earthlight

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Upton has 4-6 inches area on their map yesterday morning. They changed it quickly though. I was skeptical of those amounts.

They still say 4-8" for union county. LOL. current NAM has about .25" of sleet/ZR then a bucket of rain I really don't see where theyre getting this.

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Does anyone have an idea of how warm the 00z Euro was? If it was as warm or warmer than the NAM/GFS that's a good indication that the models are likely not holding onto the cold air at the surface properly.

Just incase anybody wants to underplay how much QPF is going to fall as frozen, here is the 12z NAM through 36 hrs total accumulated QPF by type. Lots of sleet and freezing rain.

us.namacctype12-13.gif

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Northern Nassau and NW Suffolk won't break freezing based on trends from weather stations in that area - temps have plateaued. Southern Nassau and most of Suffolk are already around 32F.

Anytime temps get near 32 people start freaking out, when in fact this is the way things were supposed to be.

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So far, Upton didn't do a bad job. They had 1-3 inches for the area. Upton probably put out warnings for ice accumulations. I don't think it was because of the snow.

I do not like to bash the NWS at all, but as late as 7or 8pm last night they were forecasting something like 5" for the city, and 6-7" JUST west of the city. Then later last night they cut amounts down to about 3 or 4" for NYC and 4" JUST west of the city. It does not appear any of these areas have even cracked 1" of snow/sleet, though I suppose if we get a lot of sleet later we may be able to reach 1-2". Regardless, their numbers aren't gonna come close to verifying anywhere near the city/immediate suburbs.

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Forecast surface temperatures of the NAM, GFS, and Euro are busting badly in NW NJ.

Forecast surface temperature for 10am in my location

Euro 23

GFS 23

NAM 22

CURRENT ACTUAL TEMPERATURE - 17.0

17 here also with a DP of 14. Temp goes up a few degrees when in lulls of precip. It will really come down to a hour by hour forecast for round two tonight. Intermittent snow sleet north of 78 today with steadier snow north of 84. Snow accumulations will be on the low end of my call if that except for areas a bit north of 80. Sleet seems to now be the dominate precip unless north of 80 a few miles or more.

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Take a look at what's going on here. Pressure is rising over the upper great lakes and high pressure up in Canada is nudging eastward. 1034 high pressure just north of VT is higher than the 1032 as per the 12z NAM at hr 06. BTW, visibility now down to less than 1/4 mile with heavy snow.

pchg.gif?1296573199630

nam_slp_006s.gif

Thank you for taking the time to find the current depiction as I was pondering what was going on with pressure heights and positioning in Canada several posts back. I think it would be beneficial to continue monitoring the top map and repeatedly compare it against what was modeled.

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Managed to get 2 inches here before it started mixing with sleet about 20 minutes ago. Really concerned about the icing with round 2. I hope we can maintain more of the sleet to cut back on the freezing rain. Really not interested in getting 3/4 of an inch of ice up here.

17 here also with a DP of 14. Temp goes up a few degrees when in lulls of precip. It will really come down to a hour by hour forecast for round two tonight. Intermittent snow sleet north of 78 today with steadier snow north of 84. Snow accumulations will be on the low end of my call if that except for areas a bit north of 80. Sleet seems to now be the dominate precip unless north of 80 a few miles or more.

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getting ready for work. overslept, was called to come into work because everyone else called out. lol.

light/moderate snow now, but radar shows serious bright banding about to move in. 19F at the airport. will reply back with some reports as I head in.

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getting ready for work. overslept, was called to come into work because everyone else called out. lol.

light/moderate snow now, but radar shows serious bright banding about to move in. 19F at the airport. will reply back with some reports as I head in.

If you go in the HV thread you will notice someone in Mahopac reporting Hvy Snow.. You should post more there :)

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17 here also with a DP of 14. Temp goes up a few degrees when in lulls of precip. It will really come down to a hour by hour forecast for round two tonight. Intermittent snow sleet north of 78 today with steadier snow north of 84. Snow accumulations will be on the low end of my call if that except for areas a bit north of 80. Sleet seems to now be the dominate precip unless north of 80 a few miles or more.

Light Snow in Stroudsburg. Changed back from sleet to snow once the intensity picked up.

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The key to Upton verifying is if the temps drop 4° in the city late today/tonight from our current temp already at 30° (lga) as forecasted by the 12 nam below. The key is the wind shift from E/NE to N/NE. Without the wind shift to a more northerly heading we will have giant puddles to deal with Wednesday afternoon that will turn to skating rinks thursday am. Below is hourly from 12z nam lga. By the way this output gives lga .29 of zr tonight with round #2.

110201/1300Z 1 05008KT 27.3F SNOW

110201/1400Z 2 05008KT 28.2F FZRA

110201/1500Z 3 06008KT 28.9F FZRA

110201/1600Z 4 07007KT 29.5F FZRA

110201/1700Z 5 04008KT 30.2F FZRA

110201/1800Z 6 02009KT 29.8F FZRA

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110201/1900Z 7 02009KT 27.9F FZRA

110201/2000Z 8 03010KT 26.8F FZRA

110201/2100Z 9 02009KT 26.2F FZRA

110201/2200Z 10 02010KT 25.9F FZRA

110201/2300Z 11 02008KT 25.9F FZDZ

110202/0000Z 12 01007KT 26.1F

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110202/0100Z 13 02008KT 25.9F

110202/0200Z 14 03008KT 25.9F

110202/0300Z 15 04008KT 25.9F

110202/0400Z 16 04006KT 26.1F

110202/0500Z 17 06008KT 26.2F FZRA

110202/0600Z 18 07008KT 26.4F FZRA

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110202/0700Z 19 09008KT 26.6F FZRA

110202/0800Z 20 07008KT 27.1F FZRA

110202/0900Z 21 06010KT 27.5F FZRA

110202/1000Z 22 07011KT 27.9F FZRA

110202/1100Z 23 08014KT 28.6F FZRA

110202/1200Z 24 08013KT 30.4F FZRA

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110202/1300Z 25 08011KT 32.5F RAIN

110202/1400Z 26 08012KT 33.4F RAIN

110202/1500Z 27 08013KT 34.3F RAIN

110202/1600Z 28 07009KT 34.7F RAIN

110202/1700Z 29 02005KT 34.9F DZ

110202/1800Z 30 34005KT 33.6F DZ

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dynamic cooling definitly taking place at the moment. If we can get some heavier bands to setup west of the area we could still get a nice dumping of snow. I just raised my forecasted totals for Ramsey from 1-3" to 2-4" based on 1.0" already on the ground, burst of heavier snow at times, and current radar trends which seem to be improving a tad in the last half hour.

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Guest Patrick

Clifton, NJ

Temp steady at 25

SN/IP: .5"

ZR: Just reached .10

secondary / Tertiary roads terrible. Multiple spin outs and accidents along 46/80/287

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Managed to get 2 inches here before it started mixing with sleet about 20 minutes ago. Really concerned about the icing with round 2. I hope we can maintain more of the sleet to cut back on the freezing rain. Really not interested in getting 3/4 of an inch of ice up here.

Measured 1.2" at 8AM. Probably near 2" now though precip is just about all sleet now and has been for past hour though intensity rather variable as the radar suggests.

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GFS is colder then NAM. It has the freezing line on NYC at hour 24 (7am tomorrow) with .50" of liquid that fell already.

After this, only .25" of rain before it ends.

This is for areas not facing south shores. NYC, Northern Queens, North Shore of LI.

South of there, its less ice and more rain.

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Temps have already begun to drop significantly over the northern half of Brooklyn, northern third of Queens and NW Nassau with winds shifting to N or even NNW. 2 stations in Brooklyn dropped 2 degrees in a half hour.

http://www.wundergro...p?ID=KNYBROOK37

http://www.wundergro...p?ID=KNYBROOK22

http://www.wundergro...p?ID=KNYMIDDL23

http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KNYROSLY5

http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KNYPORTW3

The key to Upton verifying is if the temps drop 4° in the city late today/tonight from our current temp already at 30° (lga) as forecasted by the 12 nam below. The key is the wind shift from E/NE to N/NE. Without the wind shift to a more northerly heading we will have giant puddles to deal with Wednesday afternoon that will turn to skating rinks thursday am. Below is hourly from 12z nam lga. By the way this output gives lga .29 of zr tonight with round #2.

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Thank you for taking the time to find the current depiction as I was pondering what was going on with pressure heights and positioning in Canada several posts back. I think it would be beneficial to continue monitoring the top map and repeatedly compare it against what was modeled.

Nice almost due northerly wind right down the hudson valley into NNJ. That is a trend to keep an eye on for part two later tonight. Rest of today is intermitten periods of snow/sleet/freezing rain for NNJ. Suspect by early afternoon a real lull with develop with just patch freezing drizzle till later this evening / tonight. Will be hour by hour situation tonight into tomorrow with regard to sleet vs freezing rain vs the approach of the change to rain.

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