dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM would have you believe this is more or less a non event except for very late tonight for the city and points east. The interior still gets quite a bit of ice. I'm not buying the NAM's solution, its been really bad as of late. I doubt NWS would be sticking with their totals if they really thought the last few model runs were going to verify because none of them have given this area any decent snowfall and yet the forecast has changed litte. I tend to agree with this but I am sure they'll digest the entire 12z suite and adjust if needed accordingly. The NAM is assuming the high to our north is retreating east. The key is where is that High pressure area in Canada right now and how did the NAM depict it in past runs for this timeframe. If there is no mechanism to bring the high pressure further south with no movement east during the 2nd storm the NAM will have a shot at verifying at 30-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Temps rising pretty rapidly here, up to 31 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I expect them to drop totals based on their 9am update where they acknowledge the quicker changeover. The only accumulations we get are now through this evening so if we get a 10th of an inch around the city and south of I-78 at best we get a sloppy inch on top of what we have now AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 908 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion --THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BREAK IN THE SNOW MOVING INTO ORANGE COUNTY...THAT SHOULD FILL IN AS PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ TRACKS EAST. THE NOSE OF SOME WARMER AIR...WITH H8 TEMPS BETWEEN 0 AND 1.5C... HAS MOVED INTO NYC/LONG ISLAND...RESULTING IN A PTYPE CHANGE FROM SNOW TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS CHANGE OCCURRED A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. PRECIP ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND HAS DIMINISHED...AND WILL EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR HIGHS TODAY...BLENDED 5/6 NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH 1/6 MET/MAV BLEND.-- End Changed Discussion -- They will wait until the 12z suite is in and nothing in this discussion references tonight's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I expect them to drop totals based on their 9am update where they acknowledge the quicker changeover. The only accumulations we get are now through this evening so if we get a 10th of an inch around the city and south of I-78 at best we get a sloppy inch on top of what we have now AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 908 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion --THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BREAK IN THE SNOW MOVING INTO ORANGE COUNTY...THAT SHOULD FILL IN AS PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ TRACKS EAST. THE NOSE OF SOME WARMER AIR...WITH H8 TEMPS BETWEEN 0 AND 1.5C... HAS MOVED INTO NYC/LONG ISLAND...RESULTING IN A PTYPE CHANGE FROM SNOW TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS CHANGE OCCURRED A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. PRECIP ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND HAS DIMINISHED...AND WILL EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR HIGHS TODAY...BLENDED 5/6 NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH 1/6 MET/MAV BLEND.-- End Changed Discussion -- I also expect them to drop the warnings and replace them with a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM has showed the front end precip north of the area for many runs now, good job by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM has showed the front end precip north of the area for many runs now, good job by it. True but I do not have confidence that it is handling the 2nd storm properly. Anyone that does is jumping the gun and ignoring it's overall hideous performance of late even just 12 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 So much for our 36-48 hour event. As I mentioned 2 days ago...I would advise looking out your window and at radar rather than the models. It now appears there will be little or no WAA precip from NYC on south and see no reason for any "filling in of radar" for at least 12 hours, and at that point the coastal front may be north of the city thus providing a nice soaking rain. I hope I am wrong, but temps are warming very quickly and there was very little surface cooling overnight (as I suspected yesterday afternoon). Good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 yet is was dismissed (as always when it shows an unfavorable solution) Yes and dismissing it was the correct approach in the last storm which was unfavorable results for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tpalm5 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 No bust here in Orange County.... 4.5"-5" with moderate snow now. Temps holding steady at 17* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 why? i would think a meso model would be the one that gets this setup right...at 30hrs it has JFk at 37.6...ill venture a guess it gets warmer than that. It was friggin' hideous last week meso scale or not that is the bottom line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 lets hope the models are overdoing the amt of precip with the second batch....no interest in ZR or snowmelt/rain floods Maybe Upton is banking on the 2nd batch of moisture tonight and tomorrow. My point and click forecast has 3-6 inches of snow by tomorrow morning with only 1-3 this morning. Everyone is going to start out with frozen precip tomorrow morning. The question is when will the warmer air will take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 zr 21 ended up with .75 snow, forecast was 3-5 today, a little hiccup by OKX, but they have done a magnificent job all winter, and these situations are never easy. Snowpack by tomorrow will be glacial, 18-22" locked up till April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just made it to 33 degrees here in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised if eastern Long Island hits 50oF tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 quick peek at the NAM soundings for JFK....we have .27qpf with temps at 31.4...then it goes to upper 30's...there is ZERO problems with ZR on the south shore... as for NYC- it a few degrees colder but there is little chance you get ice accretion on the city streets. HPN- gets abt .5 of "frozen" then they go to 34.4 all in all...seems like a crisis was averted IF the NAM is right....my money is with the NAM not the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 quick peek at the NAM soundings for JFK....we have .27qpf with temps at 31.4...then it goes to upper 30's...there is ZERO problems with ZR on the south shore... as for NYC- it a few degrees colder but there is little chance you get ice accretion on the city streets. HPN- gets abt .5 of "frozen" then they go to 34.4 all in all...seems like a crisis was averted IF the NAM is right....my money is with the NAM not the GFS After the last storm you think the NAM will be right? You just have to learn your lesson the hard way everytime I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I can't see how you are all so quick to dismiss everything. We are in a borderline situation here, and were supposed to be. Hey, if it rains with very little ice.....Great, I hate ice.....However, what leads you to believe that the models are so accurate depicting all the features of this complex situation so as to drop warnings? A shift of 50 mi or so with certain features and everyone gets ice, then you're all complaining that there weren't enough warnings.....sheeesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM still has .28"-.30" of ice for LGA thru hour 24. Temp is 29 at hour 24 but 25-29 before that. This is for midnight thru 7am. After this, ice problems are over and temps max out to 35 before they drop into the 20's again tomorrow night. Only issues will be very late tonight into very early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 white plains looks to be getting blasted. Can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 After the last storm you think the NAM will be right? You just have to learn your lesson the hard way everytime I suppose. i actually didnt realize how warm the 0Z GFS was. Most, if not all, the precip for tonight was plain rain for JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nasty commute this morning from Lyndhurst (southern Bergen County) to the Allendale/Ramsey border (northwestern Bergen County). Encountered mostly heavy sleet for most of the drive until I got north of the Saddle River/Waldwick area on Rt.17 where it was a 50/50 snow/sleet mix at 9:30am. Temps fell slightly from 24 degrees to 22 degrees as I progressed north. Pretty much all highways were a mess, and I didn't see a single salt truck on my entire commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 stop inferring...where did I say UPTON specifically messed up. I said ANYONE who called for a front end dump. There were at least 20 here who said it. I was actually referring to them/you, not Upton. upton DOESNT do a "great " job...on the big ones they play catch and on the little ones they over forecast...it happens all the time. but that isnt a conversation for now. I never ever expected more then 1"-3" front end this morning. Got close here. Had .75" coating everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Not to jump on the bandwagon...but just as some other people dismiss the NAM when it shows unfavorable result...which may or may not be warranted depending on the circumstance, last storm you hugged the NAM and defended its solution until the end...so just as weenie's discard unfavorable readings, you tend to do the opposite...you cling to the only models that show a bad solution...which is just as confusing and hypocritical IMHO. I have been following the board for 2 years now and it gets old to see you bash the weenies, such as the last storm, and not admit that you were flat out 100% wrong with the last storm and many other storms. You have great analysis at times but I wish you could be more impartial... Well said and it really is getting old. I am not saying this time the NAM will be wrong, I am saying confidence in it should be low. Saying it is better than the GFS or has been in this instance really is not a glowing endorsement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Snowing steadily in Ramsey again here. Not sure why everyone from the city on east is crying when this was never really suppose to be that big of a deal for them to begin with. The interior was always the one that was suppose to take the brunt. With that being said, I still think the city and LI see > 0.25" ice through 9 AM tommorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I never ever expected more then 1"-3" front end this morning. Got close here. Had .75" coating everything. So far, Upton didn't do a bad job. They had 1-3 inches for the area. Upton probably put out warnings for ice accumulations. I don't think it was because of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 most were....forecasts were 4-8" in NYC and 3-5" at JFK...which i publicly questioned yesterday evening. I remember a few people agreeing with me...dont remember anyone really opening debating the forecasts, however From who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i actually didnt realize how warm the 0Z GFS was. Most, if not all, the precip for tonight was plain rain for JFK Do your mood a favor and wait until the entire 12z suite is in. The GFS and NAM could both be out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hey, man are you smoking crack....water temps aren't even that warm....BTW its still 31 here, we'd need a 50 mph south wind to get that might get to 43-44 but I doubt 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 dude- go back and read the old thread....the NWS forecast on the point and click maps were 4-8 for NYC on north....please dont debate it. Upton had 4-6 inches area on their map yesterday morning. They changed it quickly though. I was skeptical of those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Northern Nassau and NW Suffolk won't break freezing based on trends from weather stations in that area - temps have plateaued. Southern Nassau and most of Suffolk are already around 32F. Temps are rising pretty fast on Long Island...i think we break freezing...does anyone else see us busting too high on temps today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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