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NYC Area February 1st-2nd OBS and Discussion


earthlight

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<br />Just drove up 287 from pompton plains to ramsey was snowing hard when I left but changed to sleet  in wanaque absolutly pouring sleet here now 287 is a mess btw<br />
<br /><br /><br />

287 is always a disaster in this type of weather.. I've had my fair share of snowy rides on that interstate. That is my route to work, when I have to drive into the office

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There just isn't much moisture south of from a line of rockland/ westchester... I don't see much precip falling in and around the NYC/LI area for the remaining part of the day... and by the time the next piece of moisture from the southwest reaches us, we'll be to warm..

This storm isn't looking all that great for this immediate region... But then again, who knows, things may change..

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There just isn't much moisture south of from a line of rockland/ westchester... I don't see much precip falling in and around the NYC/LI area for the remaining part of the day... and by the time the next piece of moisture from the southwest reaches us, we'll be to warm..

This storm isn't looking all that great for this immediate region... But then again, who knows, things may change..

I think 1-3 inches of snow might be a good call atm. Most of the heavier precip looks like it wants to stay north of the region. I think the area starts out with frozen precip from the 2nd storm but then changes to rain rather quickly. It should be interesting to see what unfolds.

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taking from upton discussion as of 636am....

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TAPERS OFF TUESDAY

EVENING...AND WITH THE REGION IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF A 160

KT 250 HPA JET...AND NO STRONG FRONTOGENETIC OF QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC

FORCING TO TAKE UP THE SLACK...EXPECT A PERIOD OF FREEZING

DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SLEET IN THE EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT RETURNS

AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLUS FORCING FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A

170 KT 250 HPA JET...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC

FORCING. THE RESULT WILL THE WINTRY MIX WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE

AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO GET

STARTED AND SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE...DEPENDING ON THE

EXACT DEPTH OF THE WARM LAYER (THE ONSET OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION

WILL HELP TO COOL IT DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING).

NEXT QUESTION IS WHEN DO COASTAL AREAS CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN.

THE COASTAL FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND AROUND

SUNRISE AND SLOWLY LIFT NE...LIKELY CLEARING LONG ISLAND...COASTAL

SE CT AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF NYC BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME

UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IF THE COASTAL FRONT CLEARS ALL IF NOT JUST

PART OF NYC. THIS DEPENDS ON WHEN AND WHERE THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS

TO DEVELOP...WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IF THE COASTAL LOW

DEVELOPS A LITTLE FURTHER S THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN NYC

MIGHT NOT HAVE THE COASTAL FRONT GO THROUGH...AND THUS WOULD NOT

CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN...AND THE TRANSITION ELSEWHERE WOULD BE

DELAYED

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Alot to go here as the main low is still over the Plains. Another low is developing off the coast and is shifting winds more from the north causing temps to now drop along the jersey coast.

Where did you hear this? i am up to 25 here, temp has steadly been rising the last 2 hours.

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South of about I-78 the precip doesnt look very impressive. If you look at the stuff in central PA its being shunted off to the northeast so I think most areas in central NJ into the city and LI will not see too much during the day today unless some more redevelops

There just isn't much moisture south of from a line of rockland/ westchester... I don't see much precip falling in and around the NYC/LI area for the remaining part of the day... and by the time the next piece of moisture from the southwest reaches us, we'll be to warm..

This storm isn't looking all that great for this immediate region... But then again, who knows, things may change..

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If this verifies, things are going get bad

Heavy precip over the area with 850's north of the city and freezing line right on top of the area.

It got warmer though. It will change to rain right after that hour.

Thats 7am tomorrow morning. So by the time morning comes, we would most likely already be rain and the overnight icing will be over.

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It got warmer though. It will change to rain right after that hour.

Thats 7am tomorrow morning. So by the time morning comes, we would most likely already be rain and the overnight icing will be over.

No doubt in my mind that the city and points east get above freezing sometime around the 7-9 am hour in the morinng. The interior though is a different story. Freezing rain should persist till the afternoon north and west of 95.

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Guest Patrick

Dude, if flooding turns out to be the MAIN problem with this storm, I will buy you lunch.

And no one has busted until the end of the verification period.

On another note, radar looks spotty at best, but the lift is doing some magic right now. Let's see what pops over PA over the next two hours

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=out&num=6&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=NCR&lat=40.84149170&lon=-73.28043365&label=Commack,%20NY&showstorms=0&map.x=258&map.y=346&centerx=400&centery=240&lightning=0&smooth0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1

NAM is much warmer than 6z, little ice and quickly to rain. Flooding is the main problem. Huge bust so far by upton.

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If this verifies, things are going get bad

1znu442.gif

Heavy precip over the area with 850's north of the city and freezing line right on top of the area.

So the 1031 High is scooting East as this beast cuts to the eastern lakes. Maybe a MET or anyone for that matter can advise if the high pressure area is in a position right now that will allow it to be in the position the NAM shows it will be at the 24-36 hour time frame. Did the NAM have the High in the position it is currently in on previous runs in the first place?

Quite honestly the NAM was unreliable even 12 hours out with the last storm as were all the models except for the RGEM, RUC and GGEM which at the 12-18 hour mark nailed the storm last week.

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Temps are rising pretty fast on Long Island...i think we break freezing...does anyone else see us busting too high on temps today?

Here on south shore in Nassau my thermometer's over 32, and for what its worth it seems accurate as things not already glazed from overnight are mostly 'wet.' I'm no more a met than I am an astronaut, but in the past, once we're up over freezing we stay that way until the next 'phase' of the storm happens (idiot laymans terms I know, but hopefully this makes sense.) So my thought is that we're mostly wet here for the foreseeable future today. I realize the environment changes later tonight, but whatever was supposed to happen on the front end here through evening rush is probably over in my useless opinion.

For storms like these, history seems to say that your location on the Island makes a huge difference moreso than usual. I know it often does make a big difference, but especially in the case of freezing rain, where it isn't a matter of 'degree' (for example 14" of snow is still a lot even if someone elsewhere on LI gets 20") -- if it's freezing rain it's a rare, interesting, dangerous event, and if it's just rain, who cares... I remember various times in the past being just wet here and driving up to huntington and seeing considerable glaze on the trees.

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NAM would have you believe this is more or less a non event except for very late tonight for the city and points east. The interior still gets quite a bit of ice. I'm not buying the NAM's solution, its been really bad as of late. I doubt NWS would be sticking with their totals if they really thought the last few model runs were going to verify because none of them have given this area any decent snowfall and yet the forecast has changed litte.

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I expect them to drop totals based on their 9am update where they acknowledge the quicker changeover. The only accumulations we get are now through this evening so if we get a 10th of an inch around the city and south of I-78 at best we get a sloppy inch on top of what we have now

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

908 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND

WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END

OF THE WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG

ISLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN

EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND

ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BREAK IN THE SNOW MOVING INTO ORANGE

COUNTY...THAT SHOULD FILL IN AS PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ

TRACKS EAST.

THE NOSE OF SOME WARMER AIR...WITH H8 TEMPS BETWEEN 0 AND 1.5C...

HAS MOVED INTO NYC/LONG ISLAND...RESULTING IN A PTYPE CHANGE FROM

SNOW TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS CHANGE

OCCURRED A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. PRECIP ACROSS

NYC AND LONG ISLAND HAS DIMINISHED...AND WILL EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...BLENDED 5/6 NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH 1/6

MET/MAV BLEND.-- End Changed Discussion --

NAM would have you believe this is more or less a non event except for very late tonight for the city and points east. The interior still gets quite a bit of ice. I'm not buying the NAM's solution, its been really bad as of late. I doubt NWS would be sticking with their totals if they really thought the last few model runs were going to verify because none of them have given this area any decent snowfall and yet the forecast has changed litte.

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