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NYC Area February 1st-2nd OBS and Discussion


earthlight

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not sure how accurate it is, but ewall surface maps show high pressure actually nosing further south over the last 2-3 hours across NYC metro and LI. that might partially explain why some temps across interior western LI have fallen into the mid-20s.

Still holding firm at 26 degrees here. The cold spot on LI right now looks to be Farmingdale, they were at 24 last time I checked.

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mcd0079.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0079

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1021 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NJ...SRN NY...LONG ISLAND INCLUDING NYC

METRO...AND CT

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 020421Z - 021015Z

FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES AROUND 0.05" TO 0.10" PER 3 HOURS WILL

DEVELOP EWD FROM PA AND WRN NJ LATE THIS EVENING. ACROSS NRN

PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER THROUGH MID

LEVELS...SLEET MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE OR MIX WITH

FREEZING RAIN.

A STRONG 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND AHEAD OF MID LEVEL LOW

LOCATED NEAR THE CNTRL IL/IND STATE LINE AS OF 04Z WAS PARTLY

RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH WARM CONVEYOR BELT

ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OHIO AND MUCH OF PA. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO

TRACK E/NEWD TONIGHT...CONTINUED FORCING DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL

JET AND VORTICITY MAX PROGRESSING THROUGH FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN

PRECIP SHIELD EWD ACROSS NERN NJ INTO SRN NY...LONG ISLAND AND

CT...AND WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED. 02Z

FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A COLDER SFC AND MID LEVEL COLUMN OF AIR

/WARM NOSE LESS THAN 3 C/ UNTIL AFTER 12Z...THEREFORE SLEET OR A

FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX MAY DOMINATE. FURTHER S...A WARM NOSE OF 3-5

C SHOULD ALLOW THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE TO BE FREEZING RAIN AS

FULL MELTING OCCURS WITHIN ELEVATED WARM LAYER. WHILE SOUNDINGS DID

NOT APPEAR UNSTABLE...THE 00Z NAM INDICATED SOME WEAK SYMMETRIC

INSTABILITY WHICH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS

WHERE RATES COULD BE HIGHER THAN THOSE MENTIONED ABOVE.

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Did anyone notice that Philly has ice storm warnings, didn't see anyone mention it

I did mention it in here about 20 minutes ago, that all Mt. Holly counties west of the Delaware are in ice storm warnings, including in Marlyand and Delaware.

Glaze on everything here already. Temp. has risen to 25.7, that's 0.4 degrees in the past 10 minutes. My suspicions that the initial precip. is bringing in milder air has been confirmed. Temps will begin to rise now across the area.

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radar trends and RUC have precip ending by 9/10am, which means you could easily hit 39F...

Well the NWS disagress. - Has precip hanging on through mid-afternoon. Upton also mentioned in their AFD they don't think the interior will reach freezing on Wed. If the zones to my east dont make it. I wont.

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Guest Patrick

I did mention it in here about 20 minutes ago, that all Mt. Holly counties west of the Delaware are in ice storm warnings, including in Marlyand and Delaware.

Glaze on everything here already. Temp. has risen to 25.7, that's 0.4 degrees in the past 10 minutes. My suspicions that the initial precip. is bringing in milder air has been confirmed. Temps will begin to rise now across the area.

I live only a couple miles nw of Basking Ridge so can attest to how quickly the glaze is accrueing

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My point and click forecast from NWS

Overnight: Freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet. The freezing rain could be heavy at times. Low around 25. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime ice accumulation of 0.4 to 0.6 of an inch possible. Total nighttime sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Wednesday: Rain or freezing rain before 3pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 3pm and 4pm. High near 36. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Wednesday Night: A slight chance of snow showers between 7pm and 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. West wind between 6 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

That's 0.5 - 0.9" ice expected :arrowhead: :arrowhead: :arrowhead::yikes: :yikes: :yikes:

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