Boreal Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Latest surface analysis shows a 1032 mb high still firmly parked just north of the NY/VT border. A 997 mb low is located over southern Illinois about to cross over into southern Indiana. The pressure was steady over the past two hours over much of the area but pressure falls were beginning to advance eastward. Our weak low from this morning was now located well SE of Cape Cod. Precip is beginning to break out in earnest just to the west of the CWA with temps well below freezing in most spots. Nice summary/map--appreciate the contribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 temps risen about a half degree in the last 2 hours. now 26.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Almost 1.5" of rain for the Island ?? Nah I don't see it. It has us in about 2mm of frz rain lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 As is always the case at this time frame, its now nowcasting time. I can see using the NAM since its a short range model to begin with but the GFS for all intents and purposes is about as usefull as an umbrella in a hurricane in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 greatest pressure falls for the "primary" low are still in SC. good sign. even some upper 30s in NW SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Temp rising here apparently, up to 28 now. BTW I just noticed the wunderground.com changed it's look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwang0725 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 As is always the case at this time frame, its now nowcasting time. I can see using the NAM since its a short range model to begin with but the GFS for all intents and purposes is about as usefull as an umbrella in a hurricane in this time frame. NAM is actually pretty close in terms of placement of HP up north and SLP out in IL. The HP was progged perfectly by the NAM and the SLP was 2mb too high (NAM had it at 1000mb). Upper air maps are also fairly close. 850mb freezing line running across Northern PA and still up by southern Sullivan Co in NY at this time as depicted perfectly by the NAM. If anything, it just has the surface temps a degree or 2 high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Currently at 25.1F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Their is a slight curve in the isobars near western SC. I'm not sure if it means anything at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 again, very ROUGH approximations, comparing 18z 9hr NAM 2m temp forecast to actual 3z obs... looks pretty much on track, although maybe a tick milder than forecast south, a tick cooler up north. now that is an insane temperature line on long island...now if you correlate the 26 line to the topographic maps of the island posted earlier, it seems that the areas with the highest elevation are all below 26...from those areas to just north of the south shore...any idea why that pattern other than elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It has us in about 2mm of frz rain lol. That's a trace. Your confusing it with cm. 1inch is about 24mms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 NAM is actually pretty close in terms of placement of HP up north and SLP out in IL. The HP was progged perfectly by the NAM and the SLP was 2mb too high (NAM had it at 1000mb). Upper air maps are also fairly close. 850mb freezing line running across Northern PA and still up by southern Sullivan Co in NY at this time as depicted perfectly by the NAM. If anything, it just has the surface temps a degree or 2 high. As I said, the NAM can be usefull but the GFS....not so much. The GFS is a very good medium range model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Here it comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Here it comes Precip is not only advancing, but intensifying and filling in over EPA. That initial brighter band might be sleet, or it could be the start of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Here it comes That first birst of moderate precip. is responsible for the rising temperatures in the western portion of the CWA and signals the begin of a steady temperature rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xdurango Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It looks like some of the weatherbug stations in my area have been creeping up with a switch to a more ENE wind in my area. Temps ranging from 26 to 28 or so. Temp rising here apparently, up to 28 now. BTW I just noticed the wunderground.com changed it's look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 That's a trace. Your confusing it with cm. 1inch is about 24mms Nope, the light green color has 2mm next to it-- that's about 0.1 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 still dont see much more than .25 around the NYC area but time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 That first birst of moderate precip. is responsible for the rising temperatures in the western portion of the CWA and signals the begin of a steady temperature rise. respectfully disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 That first birst of moderate precip. is responsible for the rising temperatures in the western portion of the CWA and signals the begin of a steady temperature rise. This is going to be one heck of an icestorm for N NJ, E PA, points NW...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 still dont see much more than .25 around the NYC area but time will tell still 1/4in of ice could easily cause enough of a disruption to be a huge headache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 respectfully disagree I was just basing that off of surface obs further to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The trees outside my house look just beautiful with the ice cover. However, I could do without the ice covering the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I was just basing that off of surface obs further to our west. current synoptic setup is as clear and perfect of a CAD signiauture as I've seen in quite some time. Most guidance is now even keeping most if not all the area below freezing through 12z WED. Even if temps rise a degree or two it won't matter over the ISW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Sparta, NW NJ 11PM Precip on the door step Temp: 20 DP: 18 Wind: N @ 1 Pressure: 1023. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Very impressive as the ice area is expanding as we speak, as well as being fed by an influx of moisture coming in off the Gulf. Temps in Southern Brooklyn has dropped 1 degree to 26* F from 27* F in the past 20 minutes with a NE wind still. Barometer remains unchanged for the past 2 hours @ 30.18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 As of 10:25PM from Upton SHORT TERM /1 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --HIGHLY COMPLEX SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED... WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE INTERIOR...AND FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN AND POSSIBLY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES FOR COASTAL AREAS. LOW PRES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK NE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MIDNIGHT...THEN MOVES INTO WESTERN NY BY WED MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT AND MAKE A RUN AT NYC WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND POSITIONING OF THE LOW...WHERE THE GFS IS THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CLUSTERING AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS...THE GEFS AND EVEN THE ECMWF...WHILE THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK AMONG THE MODELS. SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM LATE TONIGHT...AND AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION...WILL GENERALLY EXPECT FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE. H8 TEMPS WILL WARM TO 0-2C ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TO 2-4C FOR THE SOUTH. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR NOT WARMING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 20S...THIS SETS UP FOR A PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN EVENT. ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS UP FOR THESE AREAS...AS UP TO 1/2" ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... GENERALLY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...NYC...COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE NJ AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1/4" ARE EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 40 IN SOME SPOTS ON LONG ISLAND. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOK TO CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN WED MORNING ACROSS NYC/COASTAL NJ/LONG ISLAND AROUND 9AM...AND THEN AROUND NOON FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CT. WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT...NOT EXPECTING SNOW DURING THE DAY...SO WILL REMOVE FROM FCST. WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN THE REGION...COULD EVEN EXPERIENCE SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WED. FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NW CT...TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL ON WED. SO ALL PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL BE FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH SOME SLEET AND NO PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS...WALKWAYS... TREES AND POWER LINES. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES CAN BE EXPECTED TO FALL...RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES. EVEN AREAS UNDER THE ADVISORY AND NOT THE ICE STORM WARNING SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS...AS 1/4" OF ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS AND COULD ALSO RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. PRECIP TAPERS OFF BY WED EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...LIKELY AS SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE COAST. WITH STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THIS INTENSE SYSTEM...BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE LOCAL AREA WED NIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP FAIRLY RAPIDLY INTO THE 20S...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A RAPID FREEZE OF ANY LIQUID ON UNTREATED AND POSSIBLY EVEN TREATED SURFACES. TRAVEL WED NIGHT COULD BECOME QUITE DANGEROUS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Sleet and freezing Drizzle in North Brunswick NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Where do you get your temp from? I'm checking wunderground stations from central Brooklyn and they are at 28 degrees. Very impressive as the ice area is expanding as we speak, as well as being fed by an influx of moisture coming in off the Gulf. Temps in Southern Brooklyn has dropped 1 degree to 26* F from 27* F in the past 20 minutes with a NE wind still. Barometer remains unchanged for the past 2 hours @ 30.18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 current synoptic setup is as clear and perfect of a CAD signiauture as I've seen in quite some time. Most guidance is now even keeping most if not all the area below freezing through 12z WED. Even if temps rise a degree or two it won't matter over the ISW areas. not sure how accurate it is, but ewall surface maps show high pressure actually nosing further south over the last 2-3 hours across NYC metro and LI. that might partially explain why some temps across interior western LI have fallen into the mid-20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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