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NYC Area February 1st-2nd OBS and Discussion


earthlight

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I was but I don't remember it-I was a youngun' at that time. I don't really recall specific events from that winter but I remember there were a lot of them and we had tons of it.

It's just hard for me to get excited about an icestorm here-it's so easy to warm me up above 32 and make it all liquid cold rain. The wind direction is key here, as long as it stays NE or so we should be below 32. When it switches to E, the "torch" to 34 or so is coming right behind it. I'm thinking I get some ice but not a whole lot. You could probably get more than I would since you're a few miles inland. It seems even now as though you guys just a few miles away have more snow on the ground even though we both have about the same for the winter. The LIRR though is going to be atrocious either way.

How much snow do you have on the ground now? JFK somehow down to 9" snowcover, about half of NYC lol.

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NE wind coming off the sound? I know in the summer it cools them down more than anywhere else, maybe the inverse is true now.

Its possible. That would also explain why its 29 in Monmouth County (NE winds for them come off the Ocean.) This might be a case of where our location actually "helps" us-- as long as the winds keep a northerly component to them.

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Okay thanks.

Does anyone know if it's normal for the 3-hr interval soundings to be slightly different from the 6-hr interval soundings? For example, the 0z NAM has KSMQ at 29.3 degrees at 12z tomorrow using the 6-hr intervals and 30.3 using the 3-hr intervals. Is one generally more accurate than the other?

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Just made the trip home from Newark after the Devils game. It was 27 their but to be honest it felt much colder. Here in Pompton Plains its down to 24. Upton probably waiting for the rest of the 00z package before upgrading to warnings in the NYC immediate areas. 0.4" probable their and even though its not warning criteria, its awfully close.

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Just made the trip home from Newark after the Devils game. It was 27 their but to be honest it felt much colder. Here in Pompton Plains its down to 24. Upton probably waiting for the rest of the 00z package before upgrading to warnings in the NYC immediate areas. 0.4" probable their and even though its not warning criteria, its awfully close.

please, man.....there. there.

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From SPC

mcd0077.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0077

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0739 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TO SERN PA...MD PANHANDLE AND W CNTRL NJ

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 020139Z - 020715Z

FREEZING RAIN...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS CNTRL

PA...WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E TONIGHT. EXPECT RATES AROUND 0.05" TO

0.10" PER 3 HOURS EXCEPT IN ANY HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT MAY

DEVELOP WHERE RATES MAY BRIEFLY BE HIGHER.

01Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO

ACROSS MUCH OF PA INTO W CNTRL NJ. AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND

SLEET WERE MOVING INTO WRN PA AS PRECIPITATION SHIELD /ASSOCIATED

WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 850 MB LOW NEAR ST.

LOUIS/ TRACKS NEWD. 23Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN ELEVATED

WARM NOSE AROUND 860-870 MB OF 3-6 C WITH SFC TEMPERATURES RANGING

FROM THE LOW 20S TO NEAR 30 F ACROSS THE MCD AREA. THE ONLY

QUESTIONABLE AREA IS NEAR THE MARYLAND PANHANDLE WHERE SFC

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS

AS SFC LOW NOW OVER SRN IND/SWRN KY TRACKS E/NEWD AND ATTENDANT WARM

FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM APPROACHING MID LEVEL LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM...850 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW AS

WILL MID LEVEL JET /40-50 KT/...LEADING TO INCREASED FORCING THROUGH

THE SATURATED WARM LAYER. EXPECT RATES TO INCREASE ACROSS WRN PA BY

03Z...REACHING W CNTRL NJ BY AROUND 06-09Z.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/02/2011

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Latest surface analysis shows a 1032 mb high still firmly parked just north of the NY/VT border. A 997 mb low is located over southern Illinois about to cross over into southern Indiana. The pressure was steady over the past two hours over much of the area but pressure falls were beginning to advance eastward. Our weak low from this morning was now located well SE of Cape Cod. Precip is beginning to break out in earnest just to the west of the CWA with temps well below freezing in most spots.

pchg.gif?1296617345989

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again, very ROUGH approximations, comparing 18z 9hr NAM 2m temp forecast to actual 3z obs...

looks pretty much on track, although maybe a tick milder than forecast south, a tick cooler up north.

post-533-0-13345800-1296617746.jpg

Thanks, Quincy, you've got that 26 line down pat, as that's where we're at in SW Nassau.

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