jasonli18t Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 you can see some light precip blossoming from nyc-east. http://www.wundergro...ls=1&rainsnow=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Weird, somehow JFK is colder than LGA lol. Well, considering the temp issue at LGA, maybe not so weird. FRG is the coldest at 24. NE wind coming off the sound? I know in the summer it cools them down more than anywhere else, maybe the inverse is true now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I was but I don't remember it-I was a youngun' at that time. I don't really recall specific events from that winter but I remember there were a lot of them and we had tons of it. It's just hard for me to get excited about an icestorm here-it's so easy to warm me up above 32 and make it all liquid cold rain. The wind direction is key here, as long as it stays NE or so we should be below 32. When it switches to E, the "torch" to 34 or so is coming right behind it. I'm thinking I get some ice but not a whole lot. You could probably get more than I would since you're a few miles inland. It seems even now as though you guys just a few miles away have more snow on the ground even though we both have about the same for the winter. The LIRR though is going to be atrocious either way. How much snow do you have on the ground now? JFK somehow down to 9" snowcover, about half of NYC lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Can someone give me a link to the 3-hr interval NAM soundings? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 NE wind coming off the sound? I know in the summer it cools them down more than anywhere else, maybe the inverse is true now. Its possible. That would also explain why its 29 in Monmouth County (NE winds for them come off the Ocean.) This might be a case of where our location actually "helps" us-- as long as the winds keep a northerly component to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Can someone give me a link to the 3-hr interval NAM soundings? Thanks. I use this: http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Walking around the block. -IPBR. Very fine pellets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Basically perfect ZR scenario painted by the RUC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 How much snow do you have on the ground now? JFK somehow down to 9" snowcover, about half of NYC lol. I'd say around a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Steady Light Freezing Rain here in Lynbrook, window has nice rain streaked marks on it, temp 24.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Very interesting. Looks like flurries in the streetlight...hard to tell now if its true IP or SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I use this: http://www.wxcaster....models_text.htm Okay thanks. Does anyone know if it's normal for the 3-hr interval soundings to be slightly different from the 6-hr interval soundings? For example, the 0z NAM has KSMQ at 29.3 degrees at 12z tomorrow using the 6-hr intervals and 30.3 using the 3-hr intervals. Is one generally more accurate than the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Some light freezing rain in Long Beach currently. The real stuff is a couple of hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Very interesting. Looks like flurries in the streetlight...hard to tell now if its true IP or SN That's what I've been seeing at times here in Kearny NJ a few miles west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
66ChevelleMom Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Light freezing rain and crunchy in Oceanside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Freezing mist currently sitting at 25.3. When you look at it under a flood light, it looks like diamonds floating in the air! I wish I could capture it in a picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Just made the trip home from Newark after the Devils game. It was 27 their but to be honest it felt much colder. Here in Pompton Plains its down to 24. Upton probably waiting for the rest of the 00z package before upgrading to warnings in the NYC immediate areas. 0.4" probable their and even though its not warning criteria, its awfully close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Just made the trip home from Newark after the Devils game. It was 27 their but to be honest it felt much colder. Here in Pompton Plains its down to 24. Upton probably waiting for the rest of the 00z package before upgrading to warnings in the NYC immediate areas. 0.4" probable their and even though its not warning criteria, its awfully close. please, man.....there. there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottynic Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/hurricane2/movie/latest_sml.mov cool time lapse of this storm building up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 00Z RGEM one hour precip. types at 12Z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 From SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0077 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TO SERN PA...MD PANHANDLE AND W CNTRL NJ CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 020139Z - 020715Z FREEZING RAIN...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS CNTRL PA...WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E TONIGHT. EXPECT RATES AROUND 0.05" TO 0.10" PER 3 HOURS EXCEPT IN ANY HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP WHERE RATES MAY BRIEFLY BE HIGHER. 01Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF PA INTO W CNTRL NJ. AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WERE MOVING INTO WRN PA AS PRECIPITATION SHIELD /ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 850 MB LOW NEAR ST. LOUIS/ TRACKS NEWD. 23Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE AROUND 860-870 MB OF 3-6 C WITH SFC TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S TO NEAR 30 F ACROSS THE MCD AREA. THE ONLY QUESTIONABLE AREA IS NEAR THE MARYLAND PANHANDLE WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SFC LOW NOW OVER SRN IND/SWRN KY TRACKS E/NEWD AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM APPROACHING MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...850 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW AS WILL MID LEVEL JET /40-50 KT/...LEADING TO INCREASED FORCING THROUGH THE SATURATED WARM LAYER. EXPECT RATES TO INCREASE ACROSS WRN PA BY 03Z...REACHING W CNTRL NJ BY AROUND 06-09Z. ..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/02/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Temps rose about a degree in the past hour, I'm up to 27F from 26F. I assume temps should hold steady from this point on, maybe even drop a degree when the precip hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Waffling in between 25.1 and 24.9 now. Someone in the Phl thread mentioned that Delaware county was just upgraded to an ice storm warning. Hasn't been added yet to the NWS site though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 00Z RGEM total freezing rain 00Z RGEM total rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Latest surface analysis shows a 1032 mb high still firmly parked just north of the NY/VT border. A 997 mb low is located over southern Illinois about to cross over into southern Indiana. The pressure was steady over the past two hours over much of the area but pressure falls were beginning to advance eastward. Our weak low from this morning was now located well SE of Cape Cod. Precip is beginning to break out in earnest just to the west of the CWA with temps well below freezing in most spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 again, very ROUGH approximations, comparing 18z 9hr NAM 2m temp forecast to actual 3z obs... looks pretty much on track, although maybe a tick milder than forecast south, a tick cooler up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 GFS is a little warmer then NAM. Still has .25"-.50" of ice for NYC but at 7am, freezing line is just north or on NYC while NAM was south of NYC at that time. Like NAM, GFS also has only .25" of precip after 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Almost 1.5" of rain for the Island ?? Nah I don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 All counties in Mt. Holly's CWA west of the Delaware River are now in an ice storm warning, including Cecil county Maryland and Newcastle county Delaware. Temp. now at 25.3, up from 24.9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 again, very ROUGH approximations, comparing 18z 9hr NAM 2m temp forecast to actual 3z obs... looks pretty much on track, although maybe a tick milder than forecast south, a tick cooler up north. Thanks, Quincy, you've got that 26 line down pat, as that's where we're at in SW Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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