EasternLI Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I don't know if this has been mentioned already, but not even taking into account the road conditions, GETTING INTO YOUR CARS may very well be an issue. Car tops/exteriors are notorious for accretion of ice. There will be issues of people not able to GET THEIR KEYS into the lock, so if you don't have automatic (most do, but some don't) then you will be in for a rude surprise. Bank on spending time heating your car tomorrow from the inside/out and or some very heavy scraping of the windshield. Those with key locks and no automatic, a blowtorch may be handy... That's assuming of course your even able to drive down the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Anybody seeing some flurries out there? I'm in Kearny NJ husdon county and I see some from the street light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 how far north does the freezing line make it while precip is around? Precip ends shortly after 10am. Here is the surface temp map. Freezing line is just north of NYC: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110202/00/nam_namer_015_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 how far north does the freezing line make it while precip is around? Runs from Easton Pa to West Milford NJ to New Milford CT to I 84 at the Conn/Mass border Almost all the QPF is gone by then though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0077 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TO SERN PA...MD PANHANDLE AND W CNTRL NJ CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 020139Z - 020715Z FREEZING RAIN...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS CNTRL PA...WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E TONIGHT. EXPECT RATES AROUND 0.05" TO 0.10" PER 3 HOURS EXCEPT IN ANY HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP WHERE RATES MAY BRIEFLY BE HIGHER. 01Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF PA INTO W CNTRL NJ. AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WERE MOVING INTO WRN PA AS PRECIPITATION SHIELD /ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 850 MB LOW NEAR ST. LOUIS/ TRACKS NEWD. 23Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE AROUND 860-870 MB OF 3-6 C WITH SFC TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S TO NEAR 30 F ACROSS THE MCD AREA. THE ONLY QUESTIONABLE AREA IS NEAR THE MARYLAND PANHANDLE WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SFC LOW NOW OVER SRN IND/SWRN KY TRACKS E/NEWD AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM APPROACHING MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...850 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW AS WILL MID LEVEL JET /40-50 KT/...LEADING TO INCREASED FORCING THROUGH THE SATURATED WARM LAYER. EXPECT RATES TO INCREASE ACROSS WRN PA BY 03Z...REACHING W CNTRL NJ BY AROUND 06-09Z. ..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/02/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I don't know if this has been mentioned already, but not even taking into account the road conditions, GETTING INTO YOUR CARS may very well be an issue. Car tops/exteriors are notorious for accretion of ice. There will be issues of people not able to GET THEIR KEYS into the lock, so if you don't have automatic (most do, but some don't) then you will be in for a rude surprise. Bank on spending time heating your car tomorrow from the inside/out and or some very heavy scraping of the windshield. Those with locks and no automatic, a blowtorch may be handy... ive been worried about the same thing...... even w/ keyless entry, the doors could freeze shut easily. ive had it happen once before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Runs from Easton Pa to West Milford NJ to New Milford CT to I 84 at the Conn/Mass border Almost all the QPF is gone by then though not good for my area...that would mean roughly 3/4 of an in of ZR...I don't want to sound excited because this will almost invariably cause severe tree damage and have associated power outages, but I'm nervously anticipating my first ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 roads here are a disaster, sidewalks are already ice rinks ahead of round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 meso-analysis shows a low near the GA/SC border - also shows up on 00z NAM. greatest pressure falls away from the primary are also seen here. this is the feature to track and see where it shoots out over/off New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I am, just posted that ob. Thanks for the confirmation..I thought it was a weenie hallucination. Didn't expect the cold layer to be deep enough to support that. Just proves how effective that high to our North has been. Unfortunately, with the firehose coming later, it's highly unlikely there is any room for serious snow growth. Anybody seeing some flurries out there? I'm in Kearny NJ husdon county and I see some from the street light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 ah......memories! deform on yo face We've been in that exact band three times this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 3hr 2-meter temp trends across the area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 meso-analysis shows a low near the GA/SC border - also shows up on 00z NAM. greatest pressure falls away from the primary are also seen here. this is the feature to track and see where it shoots out over/off New Jersey. What are the implications; possible implications of this for NYC/LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 What are the implications; possible implications of this for NYC/LI? well the 00z NAM shows this and in-fact 2m temps remain below freezing until about 9-10am in and around the city. For you out on LI maybe 8-9am or so. I'd think a stronger secondary (or even a secondary at all) helps keep the NE/ENE component to the winds filtering just enough cold in to keep us AOB 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 What are the implications; possible implications of this for NYC/LI? simple. the further south and east the low tracks, the colder NYC/LI stays. also see how fast it strengthens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 What are the implications; possible implications of this for NYC/LI? The further south it goes, the more winds are kept in a NE direction and the longer cold air hangs on. If it comes too close, our wind switches to E or even ESE and we torch (relatively speaking) with onshore flow. I think we change to rain eventually, but the question is whether it happens after a tenth of an inch of ice, or a half inch. 2-3 hours can determine that difference if it comes down hard enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 simple. the further south and east the low tracks, the colder NYC/LI stays. also see how fast it strengthens... But not possible to bring the upper levels down to a level that it could induce snow, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 sounds like pinging. radar shows a few pop up echoes around the area. will be going for a walk in a few minutes to report back obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Just drove from Kings Park to work in Westbury for the midnight shift. Northern State east of Round swamp is getting F'in ugly. 20 minutes with warm water to get into my car. 6 car pileup at Deer Park Ave. We hold below 31ish the morning is going to be HELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 27 with winds ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The further south it goes, the more winds are kept in a NE direction and the longer cold air hangs on. If it comes too close, our wind switches to E or even ESE and we torch (relatively speaking) with onshore flow. I think we change to rain eventually, but the question is whether it happens after a tenth of an inch of ice, or a half inch. 2-3 hours can determine that difference if it comes down hard enough. We havent had a big ice storm in so long that I almost want to see that again, though I know how bad it could get. Were you in Long Beach for Jan 1994? We got about 1.5-1.75 inches of ice here and it got to 31 for the high during the storm after starting out in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 We've been in that exact band three times this winter im still in awe by it...im like a deform band groupie now lol. i just hunt for them on radar and watch them rip. no matter where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 27 with winds ENE You might be lower than that, Ben. It's down to 26.1 here with gusty NNE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 NYC Area February 1st-2nd OBS and Discussion Ol' Man winter throws a bag of crap at us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 3 weather stations reporting 27.2, 27.8 and 28 so I base it on them I see the one in Middle Village Queens is at 26.8 and Astoria 26.6 You might be lower than that, Ben. It's down to 26.1 here with gusty NNE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Been warning of the possibility of a longer duration ice event on Facebook and Twitter. I mean, if that happens, the public isn't going to know what hit them! Latest ice forecasts for LI range .1-.2" ice. This could still hold true, but to be honest, I'm getting a little nervous lol. That high is holding it's ground and temperatures are still dropping. And have to watch for that coastal! So much to watch with this! Have a safe night everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 3 weather stations reporting 27.2, 27.8 and 28 so I base it on them I see the one in Middle Village Queens is at 26.8 and Astoria 26.6 Weird, somehow JFK is colder than LGA lol. Well, considering the temp issue at LGA, maybe not so weird. FRG is the coldest at 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Why is it precipation always come in at or around midnight or right before dawn? Never between 1 and 3 in the afternoon. Usually I'll burn the midnight oil and wait for the snow, but should I wait for the trees to glaze, not much of a thrill watching rain under the streetlight I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 We havent had a big ice storm in so long that I almost want to see that again, though I know how bad it could get. Were you in Long Beach for Jan 1994? We got about 1.5-1.75 inches of ice here and it got to 31 for the high during the storm after starting out in the teens. I was but I don't remember it-I was a youngun' at that time. I don't really recall specific events from that winter but I remember there were a lot of them and we had tons of it. It's just hard for me to get excited about an icestorm here-it's so easy to warm me up above 32 and make it all liquid cold rain. The wind direction is key here, as long as it stays NE or so we should be below 32. When it switches to E, the "torch" to 34 or so is coming right behind it. I'm thinking I get some ice but not a whole lot. You could probably get more than I would since you're a few miles inland. It seems even now as though you guys just a few miles away have more snow on the ground even though we both have about the same for the winter. The LIRR though is going to be atrocious either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 You might be lower than that, Ben. It's down to 26.1 here with gusty NNE winds. Yea...My temp is still falling, down to 27.0 now....pressure 30.23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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