Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

NYC Area February 1st-2nd OBS and Discussion


earthlight

Recommended Posts

I don't know if this has been mentioned already, but not even taking into account the road conditions, GETTING INTO YOUR CARS may very well be an issue. Car tops/exteriors are notorious for accretion of ice. There will be issues of people not able to GET THEIR KEYS into the lock, so if you don't have automatic (most do, but some don't) then you will be in for a rude surprise. Bank on spending time heating your car tomorrow from the inside/out and or some very heavy scraping of the windshield. Those with key locks and no automatic, a blowtorch may be handy...

That's assuming of course your even able to drive down the road

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0077

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0739 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TO SERN PA...MD PANHANDLE AND W CNTRL NJ

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 020139Z - 020715Z

FREEZING RAIN...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS CNTRL

PA...WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E TONIGHT. EXPECT RATES AROUND 0.05" TO

0.10" PER 3 HOURS EXCEPT IN ANY HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT MAY

DEVELOP WHERE RATES MAY BRIEFLY BE HIGHER.

01Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO

ACROSS MUCH OF PA INTO W CNTRL NJ. AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND

SLEET WERE MOVING INTO WRN PA AS PRECIPITATION SHIELD /ASSOCIATED

WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 850 MB LOW NEAR ST.

LOUIS/ TRACKS NEWD. 23Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN ELEVATED

WARM NOSE AROUND 860-870 MB OF 3-6 C WITH SFC TEMPERATURES RANGING

FROM THE LOW 20S TO NEAR 30 F ACROSS THE MCD AREA. THE ONLY

QUESTIONABLE AREA IS NEAR THE MARYLAND PANHANDLE WHERE SFC

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS

AS SFC LOW NOW OVER SRN IND/SWRN KY TRACKS E/NEWD AND ATTENDANT WARM

FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM APPROACHING MID LEVEL LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM...850 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW AS

WILL MID LEVEL JET /40-50 KT/...LEADING TO INCREASED FORCING THROUGH

THE SATURATED WARM LAYER. EXPECT RATES TO INCREASE ACROSS WRN PA BY

03Z...REACHING W CNTRL NJ BY AROUND 06-09Z.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/02/2011

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't know if this has been mentioned already, but not even taking into account the road conditions, GETTING INTO YOUR CARS may very well be an issue. Car tops/exteriors are notorious for accretion of ice. There will be issues of people not able to GET THEIR KEYS into the lock, so if you don't have automatic (most do, but some don't) then you will be in for a rude surprise. Bank on spending time heating your car tomorrow from the inside/out and or some very heavy scraping of the windshield. Those with locks and no automatic, a blowtorch may be handy...

ive been worried about the same thing...... even w/ keyless entry, the doors could freeze shut easily. ive had it happen once before.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Runs from Easton Pa to West Milford NJ to New Milford CT to I 84 at the Conn/Mass border

Almost all the QPF is gone by then though

not good for my area...that would mean roughly 3/4 of an in of ZR...I don't want to sound excited because this will almost invariably cause severe tree damage and have associated power outages, but I'm nervously anticipating my first ice storm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Patrick

I am, just posted that ob. Thanks for the confirmation..I thought it was a weenie hallucination. Didn't expect the cold layer to be deep enough to support that. Just proves how effective that high to our North has been. Unfortunately, with the firehose coming later, it's highly unlikely there is any room for serious snow growth.

Anybody seeing some flurries out there? I'm in Kearny NJ husdon county and I see some from the street light. :huh:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What are the implications; possible implications of this for NYC/LI?

well the 00z NAM shows this and in-fact 2m temps remain below freezing until about 9-10am in and around the city. For you out on LI maybe 8-9am or so. I'd think a stronger secondary (or even a secondary at all) helps keep the NE/ENE component to the winds filtering just enough cold in to keep us AOB 32.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What are the implications; possible implications of this for NYC/LI?

The further south it goes, the more winds are kept in a NE direction and the longer cold air hangs on. If it comes too close, our wind switches to E or even ESE and we torch (relatively speaking) with onshore flow. I think we change to rain eventually, but the question is whether it happens after a tenth of an inch of ice, or a half inch. 2-3 hours can determine that difference if it comes down hard enough.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The further south it goes, the more winds are kept in a NE direction and the longer cold air hangs on. If it comes too close, our wind switches to E or even ESE and we torch (relatively speaking) with onshore flow. I think we change to rain eventually, but the question is whether it happens after a tenth of an inch of ice, or a half inch. 2-3 hours can determine that difference if it comes down hard enough.

We havent had a big ice storm in so long that I almost want to see that again, though I know how bad it could get. Were you in Long Beach for Jan 1994? We got about 1.5-1.75 inches of ice here and it got to 31 for the high during the storm after starting out in the teens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Been warning of the possibility of a longer duration ice event on Facebook and Twitter. I mean, if that happens, the public isn't going to know what hit them! Latest ice forecasts for LI range .1-.2" ice. This could still hold true, but to be honest, I'm getting a little nervous lol. That high is holding it's ground and temperatures are still dropping. And have to watch for that coastal! So much to watch with this!

Have a safe night everyone!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 weather stations reporting 27.2, 27.8 and 28 so I base it on them

I see the one in Middle Village Queens is at 26.8 and Astoria 26.6

Weird, somehow JFK is colder than LGA lol. Well, considering the temp issue at LGA, maybe not so weird. FRG is the coldest at 24.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We havent had a big ice storm in so long that I almost want to see that again, though I know how bad it could get. Were you in Long Beach for Jan 1994? We got about 1.5-1.75 inches of ice here and it got to 31 for the high during the storm after starting out in the teens.

I was but I don't remember it-I was a youngun' at that time. I don't really recall specific events from that winter but I remember there were a lot of them and we had tons of it.

It's just hard for me to get excited about an icestorm here-it's so easy to warm me up above 32 and make it all liquid cold rain. The wind direction is key here, as long as it stays NE or so we should be below 32. When it switches to E, the "torch" to 34 or so is coming right behind it. I'm thinking I get some ice but not a whole lot. You could probably get more than I would since you're a few miles inland. It seems even now as though you guys just a few miles away have more snow on the ground even though we both have about the same for the winter. The LIRR though is going to be atrocious either way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...