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NYC Area February 1st-2nd OBS and Discussion


earthlight

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the RUC nowcasting signal is a good one for those who want ice.

00z run has 2m temps FALLING from 03z to 06z across the entire "CWA", except for the NJ coast. heaviest precip looks to move in between 9 and 14z

Yup, temps are still falling here, and not slowly.

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its going to arrive in NYC metro by Midnight the way its developing and racing to the east - going to be a prolonged freezing rain event 7 - 10 hours in many locals in NYC metro - 1/2 inch of ice easy - just hope the winds don't start picking up too much

We had more than a few people here last night discounting the freezing rain threat.

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I think this could be the most significant freezing rain event/ice event in a while for our area. We got the CAD with the high in Canada, the temps are in the mid 20s and should stay in the mid to upper 20s for the next several hours as the rain arrives, the timing for a significant ice event is perfect (Night time vs Day), and we're going to see some significant QPF amounts (over an inch).

Now I know people are going to bring up 2007, but I'm talking about strictly FRZ RAIN, not Sleet. I just hope we don't see too many power outages. Power outages will be a concern if we approach and exceed a half inch of glaze.

I agree...I find it rare for the I95 corridor in NJ (ie: Trenton to EWR) to have a sustained period of Freezing Rain. So it will be interesting to see how this plays out tonight. Usually it is a pretty quick transition from snow to ice to rain. In 2007 pretty much all sleet.

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post-455-0-24564600-1296609446.gif

Notice how the rain quickly transitions to freezing rain once it hits Central PA. I wouldn't be shocked at a 11 PM start time for NYC and points south and west.

I believe there is no transition in Penn.

Most of Ohio except Cincinnati is at or below 32 degrees with freezing rain.

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Guest Patrick

Also take note of the recent Atlantic interaction... over Maryland. *Boom*

Classic CAD, Just classic.

post-455-0-24564600-1296609446.gif

Notice how the rain quickly transitions to freezing rain once it hits Central PA. I wouldn't be shocked at a 11 PM start time for NYC and points south and west.

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NAM at 7am has NYC below 32 still with about .3"-.4" of ice.

Precip ends by 11am with barely .25" of precip after 7am.

ya major flooding looks likely with that extra 1/4in of rain we receive..not

In all seriousness though the NAM suggests very little in the way of rain from NYC west to 287 and probably no rain at all north of that. I don't have the temp profiles but that would be my guess

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ya major flooding looks likely with that extra 1/4in of rain we receive..not

In all seriousness though the NAM suggests very little in the way of rain from NYC west to 287 and probably no rain at all north of that. I don't have the temp profiles but that would be my guess

Yeah. NYC at hour 15, 10am, is barely above freezing.

According to nam, I would say .25" or less is when temps are above freezing.

Becoming almost a non-rain event.

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I don't see how this doesn't become a major ice event for NW burbs of NYC, maybe even the city itself. Seems classic.

Oh, jeez, just get your met degree, with a physics background you're prime (of course put yourself on TV cause you won't make sh*t actually forecasting)...I guess then don't get your met degree just get on TV :whistle:.

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ya major flooding looks likely with that extra 1/4in of rain we receive..not

In all seriousness though the NAM suggests very little in the way of rain from NYC west to 287 and probably no rain at all north of that. I don't have the temp profiles but that would be my guess

Watch the rain supporters come out of the woodwork now and claim that the always overly warm RGEM is the bible for this storm.

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I don't know if this has been mentioned already, but not even taking into account the road conditions, GETTING INTO YOUR CARS may very well be an issue. Car tops/exteriors are notorious for accretion of ice. There will be issues of people not able to GET THEIR KEYS into the lock, so if you don't have automatic (most do, but some don't) then you will be in for a rude surprise. Bank on spending time heating your car tomorrow from the inside/out and or some very heavy scraping of the windshield. Those with locks and no automatic, a blowtorch may be handy...

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