EasternLI Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 That is one of the most impressive true CAD signatures I have seen in years. Temp down to 25.3 in Clifton. Seriously....This looks classic....FWIW - every ice strom I've seen on LI....and I remember a couple, they were forcast to change to rain.....ALL of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 the RUC nowcasting signal is a good one for those who want ice. 00z run has 2m temps FALLING from 03z to 06z across the entire "CWA", except for the NJ coast. heaviest precip looks to move in between 9 and 14z Yup, temps are still falling here, and not slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 its going to arrive in NYC metro by Midnight the way its developing and racing to the east - going to be a prolonged freezing rain event 7 - 10 hours in many locals in NYC metro - 1/2 inch of ice easy - just hope the winds don't start picking up too much We had more than a few people here last night discounting the freezing rain threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Really is an awesome look at the CAD. Good to see that. Notice how the rain quickly transitions to freezing rain once it hits Central PA. I wouldn't be shocked at a 11 PM start time for NYC and points south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Seriously....This looks classic....FWIW - every ice strom I've seen on LI....and I remember a couple, they were forcast to change to rain.....ALL of them Yep-- including Jan 1994 and VD 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Weird. I'm in East Setauket. Went from 24 to 27 in a matter of an hour and a half or so...that's where I stand now - 27. Yup, temps are still falling here, and not slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I think this could be the most significant freezing rain event/ice event in a while for our area. We got the CAD with the high in Canada, the temps are in the mid 20s and should stay in the mid to upper 20s for the next several hours as the rain arrives, the timing for a significant ice event is perfect (Night time vs Day), and we're going to see some significant QPF amounts (over an inch). Now I know people are going to bring up 2007, but I'm talking about strictly FRZ RAIN, not Sleet. I just hope we don't see too many power outages. Power outages will be a concern if we approach and exceed a half inch of glaze. I agree...I find it rare for the I95 corridor in NJ (ie: Trenton to EWR) to have a sustained period of Freezing Rain. So it will be interesting to see how this plays out tonight. Usually it is a pretty quick transition from snow to ice to rain. In 2007 pretty much all sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 25.0F here, thin glaze on all sidewals and trees since noon with increasing accruel with freezing drizzle, everyone who drove to the high school (students and staff) had to scrape of the glaze to leave for the day (with ice covered parking lots) Edit: current temp is 23.9F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 down to 23.1 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Just dropped two tenths more to 24.6 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Notice how the rain quickly transitions to freezing rain once it hits Central PA. I wouldn't be shocked at a 11 PM start time for NYC and points south and west. I believe there is no transition in Penn. Most of Ohio except Cincinnati is at or below 32 degrees with freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Which is more likely to keep people at home and not take the car out...shoveling 12 inches of snow or a solid half inch of Ice? the ice might lull people into complacency when 0.5 in of ice falls on all surfaces=secondary roads turn into ice skating rinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Which is more likely to keep people at home and not take the car out...shoveling 12 inches of snow or a solid half inch of Ice? Probably the 12 inches of snow since most people don't appreciate how much more serious ice is with driving and infrastructure compared to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Also take note of the recent Atlantic interaction... over Maryland. *Boom* Classic CAD, Just classic. Notice how the rain quickly transitions to freezing rain once it hits Central PA. I wouldn't be shocked at a 11 PM start time for NYC and points south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Nice CAD with the surface freezing line retreating even further south than the hour before: Also, the 925 MB temp has cooled to 0* C for NYC, which may yield some sleet mixed with the freezing rain at the onset: 925 is at -6 up this way. Surface temp. curently at 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 not the best track for the primary low, but keep a close eye on what happens near the Delmarva overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It's setting up to be a really rough commute in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Im starting to think the far western zones and northern mt. Holly zones have a shot at approaching 0.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Poorly formed snowflakes (needles) falling in Clifton... I can't believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I don't see how this doesn't become a major ice event for NW burbs of NYC, maybe even the city itself. Seems classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 NAM at 7am has NYC below 32 still with about .3"-.4" of ice. Precip ends by 11am with barely .25" of precip after 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 NAM at 7am has NYC below 32 still with about .3"-.4" of ice. Precip ends by 11am with barely .25" of precip after 7am. ya major flooding looks likely with that extra 1/4in of rain we receive..not In all seriousness though the NAM suggests very little in the way of rain from NYC west to 287 and probably no rain at all north of that. I don't have the temp profiles but that would be my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 ya major flooding looks likely with that extra 1/4in of rain we receive..not In all seriousness though the NAM suggests very little in the way of rain from NYC west to 287 and probably no rain at all north of that. I don't have the temp profiles but that would be my guess Yeah. NYC at hour 15, 10am, is barely above freezing. According to nam, I would say .25" or less is when temps are above freezing. Becoming almost a non-rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I don't see how this doesn't become a major ice event for NW burbs of NYC, maybe even the city itself. Seems classic. Oh, jeez, just get your met degree, with a physics background you're prime (of course put yourself on TV cause you won't make sh*t actually forecasting)...I guess then don't get your met degree just get on TV . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Temp still falling here, I had thought I leveled off.....down to 27.4.....still a north breeze... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 ya major flooding looks likely with that extra 1/4in of rain we receive..not In all seriousness though the NAM suggests very little in the way of rain from NYC west to 287 and probably no rain at all north of that. I don't have the temp profiles but that would be my guess Watch the rain supporters come out of the woodwork now and claim that the always overly warm RGEM is the bible for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I don't know if this has been mentioned already, but not even taking into account the road conditions, GETTING INTO YOUR CARS may very well be an issue. Car tops/exteriors are notorious for accretion of ice. There will be issues of people not able to GET THEIR KEYS into the lock, so if you don't have automatic (most do, but some don't) then you will be in for a rude surprise. Bank on spending time heating your car tomorrow from the inside/out and or some very heavy scraping of the windshield. Those with locks and no automatic, a blowtorch may be handy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Watch the rain supporters come out of the woodwork now and claim that the always overly warm RGEM is the bible. all we need is tmagan to proclaim..."eastern long island has a shot at 85," to complete the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Temp still falling here, I had thought I leveled off.....down to 27.4.....still a north breeze... Still falling here too, down to 26.1 NE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yeah. NYC at hour 15, 10am, is barely above freezing. According to nam, I would say .25" or less is when temps are above freezing. Becoming almost a non-rain event. how far north does the freezing line make it while precip is around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.