Bobby Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 26.5/25 and 30.20 rising still at .03/hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 once the 0z 2m temps come out, I'll post a comparison to the EURO... so far, in all honesty, temps are pretty much on track to most of the forecasts. maybe a degree or too colder, but nothing significant... the NAM has most places immediately west of nyc maxing out at around 33 degrees tomorrow... it will make a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 the NAM has most places immediately west of nyc maxing out at around 33 degrees tomorrow... it will make a difference I will also do a complete comparison analysis of 0z 2m temp vs. NAM forecasts and we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I am 20 here and the NAM had forecast me to be at 23 at 7pm. That is the closest it has been all day. Right now the NAM surface temperatures were forecast to be 20 all the way up in Albany. once the 0z 2m temps come out, I'll post a comparison to the EURO... so far, in all honesty, temps are pretty much on track to most of the forecasts. maybe a degree or too colder, but nothing significant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 27.9/27 and 30.24 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Snow for today / current snow depth: Bridgeport: 1.5" / 20" NYC Central Park: 1.1" / 18" Newark: 0.6" / 15" Islip: 0.6" / 14" LaGuardia: 0.6" / 12" JFK: 0.5" / 9" What do you have OG in PJ? Both my stakes are still a little over 21". I spent some time this afternoon knocking some huge icicles off of the roof in a controlled fashion. They've already broken some things (my snow lights ) when releasing spontaneously. I'm most worried about ice damming and water coming in the house. We already had a little within the past 24 hours, but not serious yet. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a gutter get ripped off...they must be fantastically heavy with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That high over Canada is going nowhere fast and CAD is in full effect. To bad we can't get a setup like this with a noreaster this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 KNYC 26F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 i honestly fee the same way as i felt last night about the storm; that when push comes to shove, the changeover to plain rain along most coastal sections will not come in time to save the morning commute from being terrible. i suppose that the changover and warm-up could save southern coastal communities from a damaging ice storm, but for most of us in the tri state, it 's looking very ominous. the models are pretty much not picking up on the extent of the cold air damming, nor did i read anywhere (mayby i'm wrong about this point) that the temps would fall during the day like they have. most figured that after the initial shot of snow/mixed precip, that the temps would fall off, but later on in the day than they ended up doing. To the extent they've fallen off so far, i would say i am impressed (worried) about the next part as much as i was last night at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 just went out, everything lightly glazed in brooklyn espically trees and cars, streets ok, sidewalks getting bad def much worse from sunset to now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 That high over Canada is going nowhere fast and CAD is in full effect. To bad we can't get a setup like this with a noreaster this season yea it's really hurt us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 KNYC 26F. Ray just posted something over in the PHL thread about something wes (usedtobe) suggested about heavy freezing rain. He said, and this also kind of alludes to something others were suggesting over the last couple days, that with heavy freezing rain, temps need to be below 27-28 for there to be major ice accretion. Right now, it appears that NYC will at least have a couple hours of ZR with temps below this "threshold" and therefore will likely accrete ZR very easily initially, and then as temps warm to around 30, the accretion will slow down relative to the precipitation rate. This means that there will likely be 1/4 in ice accretion in and around the city and any area that is below this threshold. For areas further north like HPN (sitting at 24) and into the LHV, this is an ominous sign and lends credence to the idea that this is really a nowcast event, because temps not rising to above freezing is one thing, but if there is a prolonged period of ZR with temps failing to get about 26 and 27 in NYC then that could spell major trouble. The more likely scenario is what I outlined above, but we really have to watch and wait to see how bad this may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 this is interesting...from mt holly. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion --OF INTEREST: MAX MODELED PRES FALLS E OF THE APPS AT 12Z TUE BY BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM OVER DEL BAY. THAT FLAGS A WIND IN MOST OF NJ STAYING NE INSTEAD OF TURNING EAST PRIOR TO 12Z...THEREAFTER TURNING LIGHT NW MIDDAY. EXCEPTION CAPE MAY COUNTY. AT 930 PM MAY ADD THUNDER TO THE FCST FOR WED MORNING. TT ARE HUGE...WOULD START WITH DEL AND ADJACENT CW FOR AN EVENT BTWN 12Z-15Z THERE...ISO SVR ANYONE? GFS ML CAPE ONLY TO 200J E OF DELMARVA AT 18Z BUT ITS WORTH A FURTHER REVIEW. ALSO... CAN SEE WIND GUSTS 35-40 KTS IN VCNTY CAPE MAY TO SRN DEL WED EVE? ADDED DENSE FOG TO PTNS OF S NJ..DEL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING IN THE 530 PM UPDATE. USING 18Z GFS 1000MB TEMPS AS A BEST EST OF SFC TEMP AS IT SEEMS TO BE A GOOD FIT AT 23Z. ALSO... THE GFS 975MB TEMPS KEEP EXTREME NE NJ AND NE PA SUBFREEZING THRU THE ENTIRE STORM. AS A FWIW...AT 1PM...COULD SEE FWN IN NW NJ SITTING AT 30F WHILE CAPE MAY ARD 50 AND GED BETWEEN 55-60 FOR AN HR OR 2. WE WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS FOR THE RDG AREA IN AN UPDATE SHORTLY. AM NOT USING THE NAM VERBATIM AS IT MIGHT BE A TAD ON THE COLD SIDE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
megals12 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I don't know who is reporting no ice in Manhattan but there's a solid glaze here on he UWS and it's hard to walk on untreated sidewalk. same on the Upper East Side and Harlem (where I just came from). definitely a thin coating of ice on any untreated surfaces and freezing drizzle continues to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 OK, now decided on a warning for the five boroughs and Nassau, the high is in a perfect position, it is unlikely the coastal front makes it too far NW of the forks; however too close to call for that area right now so FRZA remains for Suffolk. >.5 accretion for Manhattan N and W seems near certain, Queens will be close to criterium, as will Nassau, but folks drive out there so see no reason to understate the possibilities. Fascinating, <0c is very shallow, even given the energy needed to transition from liquid H2O to solid, we should be seeing sleet instead of drizzle, but this is such a near surface flow that even the higher floors of the taller buildings in Manhattan will not likely experience too much accretion (which will be good for the folks down below). Now let's wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Imagine how I feel right now being at 21 here. Ray just posted something over in the PHL thread about something wes (usedtobe) suggested about heavy freezing rain. He said, and this also kind of alludes to something others were suggesting over the last couple days, that with heavy freezing rain, temps need to be below 27-28 for there to be major ice accretion. Right now, it appears that NYC will at least have a couple hours of ZR with temps below this "threshold" and therefore will likely accrete ZR very easily initially, and then as temps warm to around 30, the accretion will slow down relative to the precipitation rate. This means that there will likely be 1/4 in ice accretion in and around the city and any area that is below this threshold. For areas further north like HPN (sitting at 24) and into the LHV, this is an ominous sign and lends credence to the idea that this is really a nowcast event, because temps not rising to above freezing is one thing, but if there is a prolonged period of ZR with temps failing to get about 26 and 27 in NYC then that could spell major trouble. The more likely scenario is what I outlined above, but we really have to watch and wait to see how bad this may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 OK, now decided on a warning for the five boroughs and Nassau, the high is in a perfect position, it is unlikely the coastal front makes it too far NW of the forks; however too close to call for that area right now so FRZA remains for Suffolk. >.5 accretion for Manhattan N and W seems near certain, Queens will be close to criterium, as will Nassau, but folks drive out there so see no reason to understate the possibilities. Fascinating, <0c is very shallow, even given the energy needed to transition from liquid H2O to solid, we should be seeing sleet instead of drizzle, but this is such a near surface flow that even the higher floors of the taller buildings in Manhattan will not likely experience too much accretion (which will be good for the folks down below). Now let's wait. Ya I mean if it was 28 or 29 right now (in NYC) then I'd buy the possibility of this being no more than a nuisance. It is however 26 and steady/dropping soo this could end up being a significant icing event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Freezing Rain Adviosrys and Ice Storm Warnings in place now..... Thinking .10-.25 for NYC and LI, .25-.4 for Coastal CT and low lying areas of NE NJ, and over .4 for interior SW CT, Hudson Valley, and Elevated areas of NE NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Freezing Rain Adviosrys and Ice Storm Warnings in place now..... Thinking .10-.25 for NYC and LI, .25-.4 for Coastal CT and low lying areas of NE NJ, and over .4 for interior SW CT, Hudson Valley, and Elevated areas of NE NJ I'm at 24.8/23 with a light freezing drizzle. Going to get nasty later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Just ran out there on Riverside Drive in Manhattan---ice glazing over quickly, almost rapidly out there, sidewalks are icing up and cars are icing up quick as well, with freezing drizzle falling. The snow cover looks nice with the ice covering it, and with .25" of Ice for the city for late tonight, .50" of rain will little to break up that frozen solid ice/snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 same on the Upper East Side and Harlem (where I just came from). definitely a thin coating of ice on any untreated surfaces and freezing drizzle continues to fall. It was the same in the village at NYU when I left work. Got off the LIRR in Douglaston where the platform was sheet of ice. Then I had to let the car warm up before trying to get the ice off the windows. The scraper was doing very little until the heat warmed up the windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Ya I mean if it was 28 or 29 right now (in NYC) then I'd buy the possibility of this being no more than a nuisance. It is however 26 and steady/dropping soo this could end up being a significant icing event heavy freezing rain would still accrete on trees/powerlines/cold surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'm at 24.8/23 with a light freezing drizzle. Going to get nasty later on. 27.8 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 very rough and APPROXIMATE 00z 2-meter temp analysis. as I said before, basically on track. if anything, then NAM might be too cold in some areas. if desired, I'll do a more thorough analysis vs. NAM, including N NJ and SE NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 still looks like it may be colder to the east? currently at 23.5 here on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 heavy freezing rain would still accrete on trees/powerlines/cold surfaces I didn't mean to stir up the debate because I do agree even at 30 or 31 it will still accrete, esp on elevated surfaces. Thing is, I had been thinking all along that our main problem would be power lines/tress as you suggest, but if temps bust even slightly low then we're looking at heavy ice accretion everywhere including roads/side walks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 very rough and APPROXIMATE 00z 2-meter temp analysis. as I said before, basically on track. if anything, then NAM might be too cold in some areas. if desired, I'll do a more thorough analysis vs. NAM, including N NJ and SE NY makes sense...I'd say the NAM is slightly too cold as well but it has a weird damming of cold air over interior SNJ that doesn't appear to actually be happening, but other than that it looks barely colder and maybe a touch warmer to the east. Reality is still colder than the euro which is no surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 more of a steady freezing drizzle now in brooklyn, everything covered very quick, temp 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 27.8 here sounds a little warm? 26 in KNYC and 24 at KHPN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 very rough and APPROXIMATE 00z 2-meter temp analysis. as I said before, basically on track. if anything, then NAM might be too cold in some areas. if desired, I'll do a more thorough analysis vs. NAM, including N NJ and SE NY Based on current obs. your 32 line should line up pretty well with the 18Z nam at this point. Just speaking for the eastern end based on rutgers 7:00 obs. Hope everyone makes out OK. Scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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