Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 precip will likely move in quick and be done quick. I could see some parts of the tri-state area done with steady precip by late morning Looks like a fast mover on radar, that is for sure--I was wondering about forecasts that have this going to late day or early eve... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sometimes they do and sometimes they don't . Thanks though for being the teacher here. I definitely needed you to teach me. Why so confrontational? All im saying is that its a good thing to keep in mind. And in general that is what occurs, the surface stays colder and the mid levels warm more. Forgive me for pointing something out. So much for the saying you learn something new everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Point and click fcst low for Central Park is 29F, yet it's 27F right now. I've noted similar differentials w/ other locations in the area. Surface temps right now seem to be underdone by a couple degrees, which could make all the difference at game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like a fast mover on radar, that is for sure--I was wondering about forecasts that have this going to late day or early eve... Yea im not so sure that precip will last that long, though this could be a worse thing for the tri-state as far as icing goes. Precip moves through while colder surface air is still in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It is the way you put it. What made you think I did not already know what you were saying? Sure, what I thought would happen did not happen the way I thought it would. It does not mean that I don't understand the workings of the processes. Why so confrontational? All im saying is that its a good thing to keep in mind. And in general that is what occurs, the surface stays colder and the mid levels warm more. Forgive me for pointing something out. So much for the saying you learn something new everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Point and click fcst low for Central Park is 29F, yet it's 27F right now. I've noted similar differentials w/ other locations in the area. Surface temps right now seem to be underdone by a couple degrees, which could make all the difference at game time. upton going for a high of 40 tomorrow for my area of southern queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Already down to 25* F here in Southern Brooklyn where NWS had me for a low of 28* F for the night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Point and click fcst low for Central Park is 29F, yet it's 27F right now. I've noted similar differentials w/ other locations in the area. Surface temps right now seem to be underdone by a couple degrees, which could make all the difference at game time. Definitely, as i said before, this is such a tricky close forecast that differences like 1) HP +/- a few MB's 2) Track of N/S 5-10 miles 3) 1-2 Degrees +/- ... could make all the difference. Not so much as far is snow/rain goes but as far as icing versus escaping the icing goes. And so far things are leaning(at least for this area) towards number 1 being a few MB stronger and 3 being a few degrees cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Point and click fcst low for Central Park is 29F, yet it's 27F right now. I've noted similar differentials w/ other locations in the area. Surface temps right now seem to be underdone by a couple degrees, which could make all the difference at game time. compared to RUC and NAM, they look right on track. both the 12 and 18z NAM text data has KNYC bottoming out at 25F around 10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 just came inside, very icy out in brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It is the way you put it. What made you think I did not already know what you were saying? Sure, what I thought would happen did not happen the way I thought it would. It does not mean that I don't understand the workings of the processes. Wasnt trying to call you out, i was saying id rather have that then the ice at this point. Heck i made a call that NYC would surely not see over 6" from the last storm and basically assured my job against it..... look how that turned out. Sometimes we win sometimes we lose, thus is the fun in meteorology. Apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 by the way: KNYC 21 02/02 15Z 34 33 60 7 0.40 0.02 550 558 5.6 -17.1 1009 100 -TSRA 000OVC459 0.0 2.3 yuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 compared to RUC and NAM, they look right on track. both the 12 and 18z NAM text data has KNYC bottoming out at 25F around 10pm Will be interesting to see temps at 10pm; that should help us determine whether even the NAM or RUC are too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 compared to RUC and NAM, they look right on track. both the 12 and 18z NAM text data has KNYC bottoming out at 25F around 10pm Holding steady at 25 here at Kean. Icy as all get-out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Same here. I did not realize that last incident was you. Ouch. Yes, this one did not turn out the way I thought it would, but really not that far off. The NWS pretty much busted in this area really bad today too, so it is not just us. Wasnt trying to call you out, i was saying id rather have that then the ice at this point. Heck i made a call that NYC would surely not see over 6" from the last storm and basically assured my job against it..... look how that turned out. Sometimes we win sometimes we lose, thus is the fun in meteorology. Apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 precip will likely move in quick and be done quick. I could see some parts of the tri-state area done with steady precip by late morning Hmmm.....I was wondering about this, note the 2 highlighted statements. SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM LATE TONIGHT...AND AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION...WILL GENERALLY EXPECT FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE. H8 TEMPS WILL WARM TO 0-2C ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TO 2-4C FOR THE SOUTH. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR NOT WARMING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 20S...THIS SETS UP FOR A PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN EVENT. ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS UP FOR THESE AREAS...AS UP TO 1/2" ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... GENERALLY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...NYC...COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE NJ AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1/4" ARE EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 40 IN SOME SPOTS ON LONG ISLAND. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOK TO CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN WED MORNING ACROSS NYC/COASTAL NJ/LONG ISLAND AROUND 9AM...AND THEN AROUND NOON FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CT. WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT...NOT EXPECTING SNOW DURING THE DAY...SO WILL REMOVE FROM FCST. WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN THE REGION...COULD EVEN EXPERIENCE SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This may have been already posted or stated so my appologies.................here's what Mt. Holly is thinking..................Nasty if it verifies here in the NW Surburbs. We're down to 23F already here in Parsippany,NJ.....................temps projected to go down to the upper teens to low 20s. recipe for some major icing here. ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ...THIS REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WARNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * AREAS AFFECTED: NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. * PRECIPITATION TYPES: HEAVY FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SLEET OCCURS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY. * ACCUMULATIONS: GLAZE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY. IF SLEET OCCURS... GLAZE ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LESS BUT SLEET COULD ACCUMULATE ONE HALF INCH. * TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S THROUGHOUT THIS STORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Tmagan: These RGEM maps you post are great...is there a link open to the public for free? Yes: 1) Go to: http://meteocentre.com/home_e.html 2) Scroll down to: Vizaweb: Web access to CMC products. It takes about a day to learn how to use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sparta, NW NJ 5PM Temp: 19 DP: 17 Wind: N @ 3 Pressure: 1023.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Has anyone felt their snowpack this afternoon? You need a light hammer to break through it. I broke off the top layer and the ice is about 0.2 inches thick. Not bad at all. I also placed a large piece of cardboard on my windshield so I don't have to sit there with the ice scraper tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 current temperature is 25 degrees in Pompton Plains. Everything was covered in ice when I got home from work. Headed down to Newark now to watch my Devils play. I'm hoping the precip holds off till at least 11pm. Be safe everyone, expecting a catastrophic ice storm of 0.5" + here in Morris County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 even MOS has 36F here in Danbury tomorrow afternoon. will be interesting to see what happens once the precip shuts off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 even MOS has 36F here in Danbury tomorrow afternoon. will be interesting to see what happens once the precip shuts off everyone should see a good spike in temps once the precip shuts off and before the "cold front" or wind shift line passes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Dude, I just looked at this model....There is never any coastal transfer.....Of course it gets as warm as it does....It just keeps going up to maine I know the precip. will be done by then, but look how warm for southern Jersey the 18Z RGEM has it for 18Z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yes: 1) Go to: http://meteocentre.com/home_e.html 2) Scroll down to: Vizaweb: Web access to CMC products. It takes about a day to learn how to use it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Lon Island's Icestorm in January 1994 is my memory or memories for LI icestorms. This one is not even close to that potential, is it? How much ice accretion did we get in nass cnty with that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM text data has a lot of stations reporting thunderstorms with sleet/freezing rain/midday tomorrow. not sure how good the algorithms are though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 There will certainly be melting and re-freezing but not sure if we'll get any real flash freeze. Temps drop below freezing by early evening but its not sudden or a sharp drop. The worst I remember is March of '05 where it was raining in the morning with temps in the upper 30s and by evening we were in the teens and everything turned instantly to ice. Maybe a little flash freezing? A lot of puddles will likely rapidly refreeze as cold air quickly plunges in after things warm up during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
armadillo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Here is a link to one of the many videos regarding the January 2009 ice storm that hit northern AR, southern MO, western KY. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bn3b5KvIeRg&feature=related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwang0725 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 850 freezing line well north of NYC at the moment. Currently in southern Sullivan/Ulster County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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