whiteoutwx1796 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Winter storm warning for NYC. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY415 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGHWEDNESDAY...NJZ006-106-108-NYZ072>075-176>179-012215-/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0005.110201T1100Z-110203T0000Z//O.EXA.KOKX.WS.W.0005.110201T1100Z-110203T0000Z/HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-415 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS INEFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY.* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY AND PORTIONS OF THE NEW JERSEY METROPOLITAN AREA...AND NASSAU COUNTY.* HAZARDS...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION... AND FROM A QUARTER TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMOUNTS AWAY FROM OCEAN FACING COASTAL AREAS.* TIMING...SNOW...TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN AROUND MID MORNING...AND CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SLEET THIS EVENING. A HEAVY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THEN DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...LIKELY CHANGING TO ALL FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING TO RAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGEOVER WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ICING AMOUNTS.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD KNOCK DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Accumulation forecast (includes sleet): Part 1/Total TEB: 0.5-1" / 1-2" EWR: 0.5-1" / 1-1.5" SWF: 4-6" / 5-9" HPN: 0.5-1" / 1-3" DXR: 2-4"/ 3-6" BDR: 1-2" / 1-3" MMK: 2-4" / 3-6" HVN: 1-3" / 2-4" GON: 1-3" / 2-4" NYC: 0.5-1" / 1-1.5" LGA: 0.5-1" / 1-1.5" JFK: 0-1" / 0-1" ISP: 0-1" / 0-1" Port Jefferson, NY: 0.5-1" / 1-2" FOK: 0-1" / 0-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 How OKX thinks any snow is going to fall tonight in Brooklyn, Queens and Nassau County is beyond me. I could see it perhaps in northern Manhattan and the Bronx right at the beginning of round 2. Winter storm warning for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Here's my forecast for the max temp on Wed before the precipitation tapers to drizzle: TEB: 32F EWR: 33F SWF: 25F HPN: 30F DXR: 29F BDR: 32F MMK: 30F HVN: 33F GON: 34F NYC: 32F LGA: 33F JFK: 34F ISP: 36F Port Jefferson, NY: 34F FOK: 37F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wow. Radar looks very minimal for part 1. Nothing falling here just a few tenths of new snow on the ground. T-28 Td-27 Wind - NE 11mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wow. Radar looks very minimal for part 1. Nothing falling here just a few tenths of new snow on the ground. T-28 Td-27 Wind - NE 11mph The NAM nailed the placement on this from 84 hours out...outside of the one egg it layed on the 1/11 storm I believe its been on about as good a run this winter as I've ever seen any model be during a 2-3 month stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It's typical in these SW flow events that the southern edge of the precip. is very sharp. Wow. Radar looks very minimal for part 1. Nothing falling here just a few tenths of new snow on the ground. T-28 Td-27 Wind - NE 11mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The NAM nailed the placement on this from 84 hours out...outside of the one egg it layed on the 1/11 storm I believe its been on about as good a run this winter as I've ever seen any model be during a 2-3 month stretch. Yeah. Had precip really beginning by 7am right? It's typical in these SW flow events that the southern edge of the precip. is very sharp. Also seems like that high is cutting into it a bit, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Evansweather Bill Evans Wednesday could be considerable Freezing Rain around NYC, that will coat surfaces, trees with ice, power outageshttp://tinyurl.com/45wqktk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sleet/Freezing Rain just began here in Clifton. Debating the drive to White Plains.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Back to light snow here in Setauket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Back to light snow here in Setauket. Just overcast next door (at the moment)...about 1/2 inch of snow fell overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nothing on radar but definitely sleet/freezing rain here. Temperature is 24.0 even, on with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 FWIW the 6z NAM simulated radar looked pretty active over the area at hour 6 (7:00 AM Eastern)...it has 36 minutes to come to life... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Lol, 6z GFS has no icing here whatsoever, along with all of LI and most of NJ. It just starts as rain. (part 2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 About 1/2' of "snow" overnight. Temp is 28. I don't see or feel any type of precip. I'm gonna eat crow at work if nothing happens soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Light snow and 24.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Lol, 6z GFS has no icing here whatsoever, along with all of LI and most of NJ. It just starts as rain. (part 2) http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR Which GFS would that be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Anyone have any info on what the Euro showed last night for the area in terms of ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I really do not see any support for uptons 3 to 6 inch call for nyc, seems like they want to go with a snowier forecast because of persistance. That dosent make much sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR Which GFS would that be? Well I was just basing it off of this: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_030l.gif It's easy to compare to prior maps of the GFS and see how much warmer the onset of this precip. has trended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well I was just basing it off of this: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_030l.gif It's easy to compare to prior maps of the GFS and see how much warmer the onset of this precip. has trended. That was back before the models had this initial first round of precipitation for today...this round sort of killed us, otherwise we'd probably have gotten relatively decent snows with the start of the system tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That was back before the models had this initial first round of precipitation for today...this round sort of killed us, otherwise we'd probably have gotten relatively decent snows with the start of the system tomorrow. Well I was focusing more on the freezing rain threat which seems to be dwindling as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Very light Misty freezing drizzle here in Somerville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Temp as risen 0.2 degrees to 24.2. Calm conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Mist here in piscataway. 24.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sleet now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sleet falling here in Astoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 30 degrees here in Long Beach with freezing drizzle. There is a light glaze and the street in front of my house is very slick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Does anyone see South Shore Nassau County getting .50"-1.00" ZR from late tonight through 3PM tomorrow ? This threat look real on the 6Z NAM, which never gets the 32 line north of the south shore beaches through the entire event. Am I looking at this wrong ? Won't the surface trend colder with strong low level CAA through out the entire event tonight and tomorrow with 1032 high and 1052 high much further west keeping it ZR completely ? Let's anticipate the worse so everyone is prepared in case it really comes to fruition. Isn't that 1/1994 0.75" ice storm the #1 analog for this event for this region ? Be careful with this event and expect the worse outcome so everyone is prepared and not shocked if we have massive ZR glaze on everything. It can ZR on the southshore of LI, I have seen this a lot in 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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