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NYC Area February 1st-2nd OBS and Discussion


earthlight

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Winter storm warning for NYC.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY415 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGHWEDNESDAY...NJZ006-106-108-NYZ072>075-176>179-012215-/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0005.110201T1100Z-110203T0000Z//O.EXA.KOKX.WS.W.0005.110201T1100Z-110203T0000Z/HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-415 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS INEFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY.* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY AND PORTIONS OF THE NEW JERSEY METROPOLITAN AREA...AND NASSAU COUNTY.* HAZARDS...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION... AND FROM A QUARTER TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMOUNTS AWAY FROM OCEAN FACING COASTAL AREAS.* TIMING...SNOW...TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN AROUND MID MORNING...AND CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SLEET THIS EVENING. A HEAVY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THEN DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...LIKELY CHANGING TO ALL FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING TO RAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGEOVER WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ICING AMOUNTS.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD KNOCK DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.&&
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Accumulation forecast (includes sleet):

Part 1/Total

TEB: 0.5-1" / 1-2"

EWR: 0.5-1" / 1-1.5"

SWF: 4-6" / 5-9"

HPN: 0.5-1" / 1-3"

DXR: 2-4"/ 3-6"

BDR: 1-2" / 1-3"

MMK: 2-4" / 3-6"

HVN: 1-3" / 2-4"

GON: 1-3" / 2-4"

NYC: 0.5-1" / 1-1.5"

LGA: 0.5-1" / 1-1.5"

JFK: 0-1" / 0-1"

ISP: 0-1" / 0-1"

Port Jefferson, NY: 0.5-1" / 1-2"

FOK: 0-1" / 0-1"

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Wow. Radar looks very minimal for part 1. Nothing falling here just a few tenths of new snow on the ground.

T-28

Td-27

Wind - NE 11mph

The NAM nailed the placement on this from 84 hours out...outside of the one egg it layed on the 1/11 storm I believe its been on about as good a run this winter as I've ever seen any model be during a 2-3 month stretch.

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The NAM nailed the placement on this from 84 hours out...outside of the one egg it layed on the 1/11 storm I believe its been on about as good a run this winter as I've ever seen any model be during a 2-3 month stretch.

Yeah. Had precip really beginning by 7am right?

It's typical in these SW flow events that the southern edge of the precip. is very sharp.

Also seems like that high is cutting into it a bit, no?

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Back to light snow here in Setauket.

Just overcast next door (at the moment)...about 1/2 inch of snow fell overnight...

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FWIW the 6z NAM simulated radar looked pretty active over the area at hour 6 (7:00 AM Eastern)...it has 36 minutes to come to life...

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Well I was just basing it off of this:

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_030l.gif

It's easy to compare to prior maps of the GFS and see how much warmer the onset of this precip. has trended.

That was back before the models had this initial first round of precipitation for today...this round sort of killed us, otherwise we'd probably have gotten relatively decent snows with the start of the system tomorrow.

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That was back before the models had this initial first round of precipitation for today...this round sort of killed us, otherwise we'd probably have gotten relatively decent snows with the start of the system tomorrow.

Well I was focusing more on the freezing rain threat which seems to be dwindling as well.

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Does anyone see South Shore Nassau County getting .50"-1.00" ZR from late tonight through 3PM tomorrow ? This threat look real on the 6Z NAM, which never gets the 32 line north of the south shore beaches through the entire event. Am I looking at this wrong ? Won't the surface trend colder with strong low level CAA through out the entire event tonight and tomorrow with 1032 high and 1052 high much further west keeping it ZR completely ? Let's anticipate the worse so everyone is prepared in case it really comes to fruition. Isn't that 1/1994 0.75" ice storm the #1 analog for this event for this region ? Be careful with this event and expect the worse outcome so everyone is prepared and not shocked if we have massive ZR glaze on everything. It can ZR on the southshore of LI, I have seen this a lot in 1994.

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