SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 that's probably true... although i bet more than half the population doesn't even know what freezing rain is. There was discussion 2-3 years ago about changing the wording to an ice storm advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 There was discussion 2-3 years ago about changing the wording to an ice storm advisory I think the problem with that is that it's against NWS policy to use the words storm and advisory back to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 No it's not, why does everyone jump off a bridge so quickly lol? Cant people disagree with one another without people thinking the world is going to hell haha? Hmmm, not quite sure how to respond. I guess I'd rather have folks posting upper air charts, writing about high pressure positions, giving analysis of the secondary low formation and the start of precip...stuff like that. I generally enjoy this thread, I'm just rather bored with the Upton discussion. But I'm not aiming this at you, I'm also bored with the stories of cars sliding sideways and whatnot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think the problem with that is that it's against NWS policy to use the words storm and advisory back to back. How about making it an Icing advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I would say that over half of the population probably doesn't know the difference between freezing rain and sleet. and 95% don't know the difference between sleet and hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hmmm, not quite sure how to respond. I guess I'd rather have folks posting upper air charts, writing about high pressure positions, giving analysis of the secondary low formation and the start of precip...stuff like that. I generally enjoy this thread, I'm just rather bored with the Upton discussion. But I'm not aiming this at you, I'm also bored with the stories of cars sliding sideways and whatnot. Maybe that's because Upton's AFD was the last thing to come out and there hasn't been much change since then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 How about making it an Icing advisory? Doesn't sound like a bad idea, but I don't work for NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hmmm, not quite sure how to respond. I guess I'd rather have folks posting upper air charts, writing about high pressure positions, giving analysis of the secondary low formation and the start of precip...stuff like that. I generally enjoy this thread, I'm just rather bored with the Upton discussion. But I'm not aiming this at you, I'm also bored with the stories of cars sliding sideways and whatnot. Much understood, but also on the same hand i guess one could say that those are "observational" related.... just saying, playin' devils' advocate i suppose. But yes back to the weather....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 26.7 here in edison....27 in new brunswick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I would say that over half of the population probably doesn't know the difference between freezing rain and sleet. if you want to see a completely blank look on someone's face, ask them the difference between freezing rain, sleet and hail. i think among the general public, freezing rain is the least understood of them all, for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hmmm, not quite sure how to respond. I guess I'd rather have folks posting upper air charts, writing about high pressure positions, giving analysis of the secondary low formation and the start of precip...stuff like that. I generally enjoy this thread, I'm just rather bored with the Upton discussion. But I'm not aiming this at you, I'm also bored with the stories of cars sliding sideways and whatnot. Noreaster85 posted this throughout the thread. This is the most recent depiction posted here. I am sure the link for this image has an update somewhere for you to check out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18Z RGEM Total Freezing Rain 18Z RGEM Total Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 if you want to see a completely blank look on someone's face, ask them the difference between freezing rain, sleet and hail. i think among the general public, freezing rain is the least understood of them all, for whatever reason. I bet most people would answer, "freezing rain is a very cold rain that falls." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18Z RGEM Total Freezing Rain 18Z RGEM Total Rain Account for it's warm bias and you can cut that rain in half and double the Freezing Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What an impressive radar shot of the storm; there is wintry precipitation from Oklahoma already up to Western PA. I wouldn't be surprised to see freezing rain redevelop over the area before midnight given how fast the precipitation shield is moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What an impressive radar shot of the storm; there is wintry precipitation from Oklahoma already up to Western PA. I wouldn't be surprised to see freezing rain redevelop over the area before midnight given how fast the precipitation shield is moving. That is whipping along at a decent clip. Pretty incredible system. And to the comment about the RGEM being too warm so we can just cut the rain in half and turn it to frza i think that is incorrect. It has been the RGEM to be one of the few models to do decently well this year so far. So we cant just arbitrarily turn half of the rain into frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Freezing rain verbatim would indicate some sort of frozen precipitation falling from the sky, ie sleet/hail. Most people don't realize freezing rain is just rain while its falling but that it freezes on contact due to surface temps being below freezing if you want to see a completely blank look on someone's face, ask them the difference between freezing rain, sleet and hail. i think among the general public, freezing rain is the least understood of them all, for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That is whipping along at a decent clip. Pretty incredible system. And to the comment about the RGEM being too warm so we can just cut the rain in half and turn it to frza i think that is incorrect. It has been the RGEM to be one of the few models to do decently well this year so far. So we cant just arbitrarily turn half of the rain into frozen. The GGEM and RGEM have a historically warm bias, but use it however you want! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What an impressive radar shot of the storm; there is wintry precipitation from Oklahoma already up to Western PA. I wouldn't be surprised to see freezing rain redevelop over the area before midnight given how fast the precipitation shield is moving. Yeah, I noticed some returns now showing up on KDIX radar in eastern PA...hope it shows up soon, I hate these waiting periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That is whipping along at a decent clip. Pretty incredible system. And to the comment about the RGEM being too warm so we can just cut the rain in half and turn it to frza i think that is incorrect. It has been the RGEM to be one of the few models to do decently well this year so far. So we cant just arbitrarily turn half of the rain into frozen. RGEM has a warm bias regardless of how it has performed as of late and it struggles in this scenario the most with that bias. We really have not had this situation yet this winter so saying it has performed well in other setups this winter isn't saying anything really when it comes to this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18z GFS faster than NAM with more QPF by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 RGEM has a warm bias regardless of how it has performed as of late and it struggles in this scenario the most with that bias. We really have not had this situation yet this winter so saying it has performed well in other setups this winter isn't saying anything really when it comes to this situation. While that may be true, we cant just make up numbers like cut the actual rain in half and turn it to frozen, see my point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Does anyone feel sleet can be a big player tonight too for LI? Since everything has trended colder 25.2 here now, any chance of no liquid at all tomorroe or is that still in th cards for sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 A lot of models have trouble with low level cold in these types of situations. That's why we often see last minute warnings put up when the temperatures are at 28-30 when they are supposed to rise to 33-35. The 18z gfs is a little colder at the surface through 18 hours, looks like the heaviest precipitation may fall when the surface is below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Does anyone feel sleet can be a big player tonight too for LI? Since everything has trended colder 25.2 here now, any chance of no liquid at all tomorroe or is that still in th cards for sure? DEFINTELY still in the cards. Rain is the most likely solution, how much frozen vs wet is still up in the air a bit. However look at the radar and all you need to see is that wound up low plowing into the MW to tell you that it will not be snow/sleet south of 40N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18z GFS faster than NAM with more QPF by 12z. Warmer and slower than the NAM a tad too from 18-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 While that may be true, we cant just make up numbers like cut the actual rain in half and turn it to frozen, see my point? Fair enough though I have seen such great disparity of that magnitude in these setups many times in the past on the RGEM model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 precip will likely move in quick and be done quick. I could see some parts of the tri-state area done with steady precip by late morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Tmagan: These RGEM maps you post are great...is there a link open to the public for free? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Maybe a little flash freezing? A lot of puddles will likely rapidly refreeze as cold air quickly plunges in after things warm up during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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