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NYC Area February 1st-2nd OBS and Discussion


earthlight

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No it's not, why does everyone jump off a bridge so quickly lol? Cant people disagree with one another without people thinking the world is going to hell haha?

Hmmm, not quite sure how to respond. I guess I'd rather have folks posting upper air charts, writing about high pressure positions, giving analysis of the secondary low formation and the start of precip...stuff like that. I generally enjoy this thread, I'm just rather bored with the Upton discussion. But I'm not aiming this at you, I'm also bored with the stories of cars sliding sideways and whatnot.

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Hmmm, not quite sure how to respond. I guess I'd rather have folks posting upper air charts, writing about high pressure positions, giving analysis of the secondary low formation and the start of precip...stuff like that. I generally enjoy this thread, I'm just rather bored with the Upton discussion. But I'm not aiming this at you, I'm also bored with the stories of cars sliding sideways and whatnot.

Maybe that's because Upton's AFD was the last thing to come out and there hasn't been much change since then?

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Hmmm, not quite sure how to respond. I guess I'd rather have folks posting upper air charts, writing about high pressure positions, giving analysis of the secondary low formation and the start of precip...stuff like that. I generally enjoy this thread, I'm just rather bored with the Upton discussion. But I'm not aiming this at you, I'm also bored with the stories of cars sliding sideways and whatnot.

Much understood, but also on the same hand i guess one could say that those are "observational" related.... just saying, playin' devils' advocate i suppose. But yes back to the weather.......

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I would say that over half of the population probably doesn't know the difference between freezing rain and sleet.

if you want to see a completely blank look on someone's face, ask them the difference between freezing rain, sleet and hail.

i think among the general public, freezing rain is the least understood of them all, for whatever reason.

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Hmmm, not quite sure how to respond. I guess I'd rather have folks posting upper air charts, writing about high pressure positions, giving analysis of the secondary low formation and the start of precip...stuff like that. I generally enjoy this thread, I'm just rather bored with the Upton discussion. But I'm not aiming this at you, I'm also bored with the stories of cars sliding sideways and whatnot.

Noreaster85 posted this throughout the thread. This is the most recent depiction posted here. I am sure the link for this image has an update somewhere for you to check out.

pchg.gif?1296589632473

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What an impressive radar shot of the storm; there is wintry precipitation from Oklahoma already up to Western PA. I wouldn't be surprised to see freezing rain redevelop over the area before midnight given how fast the precipitation shield is moving.

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That is whipping along at a decent clip. Pretty incredible system. And to the comment about the RGEM being too warm so we can just cut the rain in half and turn it to frza i think that is incorrect. It has been the RGEM to be one of the few models to do decently well this year so far. So we cant just arbitrarily turn half of the rain into frozen.

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Freezing rain verbatim would indicate some sort of frozen precipitation falling from the sky, ie sleet/hail. Most people don't realize freezing rain is just rain while its falling but that it freezes on contact due to surface temps being below freezing

if you want to see a completely blank look on someone's face, ask them the difference between freezing rain, sleet and hail.

i think among the general public, freezing rain is the least understood of them all, for whatever reason.

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That is whipping along at a decent clip. Pretty incredible system. And to the comment about the RGEM being too warm so we can just cut the rain in half and turn it to frza i think that is incorrect. It has been the RGEM to be one of the few models to do decently well this year so far. So we cant just arbitrarily turn half of the rain into frozen.

The GGEM and RGEM have a historically warm bias, but use it however you want!

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What an impressive radar shot of the storm; there is wintry precipitation from Oklahoma already up to Western PA. I wouldn't be surprised to see freezing rain redevelop over the area before midnight given how fast the precipitation shield is moving.

usa_None_anim.gif

Yeah, I noticed some returns now showing up on KDIX radar in eastern PA...hope it shows up soon, I hate these waiting periods.

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That is whipping along at a decent clip. Pretty incredible system. And to the comment about the RGEM being too warm so we can just cut the rain in half and turn it to frza i think that is incorrect. It has been the RGEM to be one of the few models to do decently well this year so far. So we cant just arbitrarily turn half of the rain into frozen.

RGEM has a warm bias regardless of how it has performed as of late and it struggles in this scenario the most with that bias. We really have not had this situation yet this winter so saying it has performed well in other setups this winter isn't saying anything really when it comes to this situation.

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RGEM has a warm bias regardless of how it has performed as of late and it struggles in this scenario the most with that bias. We really have not had this situation yet this winter so saying it has performed well in other setups this winter isn't saying anything really when it comes to this situation.

While that may be true, we cant just make up numbers like cut the actual rain in half and turn it to frozen, see my point?

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A lot of models have trouble with low level cold in these types of situations. That's why we often see last minute warnings put up when the temperatures are at 28-30 when they are supposed to rise to 33-35. The 18z gfs is a little colder at the surface through 18 hours, looks like the heaviest precipitation may fall when the surface is below freezing.

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Does anyone feel sleet can be a big player tonight too for LI?

Since everything has trended colder 25.2 here now, any chance of no liquid at all tomorroe or is that still in th cards for sure?

DEFINTELY still in the cards. Rain is the most likely solution, how much frozen vs wet is still up in the air a bit. However look at the radar and all you need to see is that wound up low plowing into the MW to tell you that it will not be snow/sleet south of 40N

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