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NYC Area February 1st-2nd OBS and Discussion


earthlight

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They just changed from a WWA to FRZA what the heck is going on there? This is the 3rd product they've issued today..

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY403 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL BRING ICY CONDITIONS TO THE AREALATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NJZ006-106-108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-021100-/O.CAN.KOKX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-110202T1400Z//O.NEW.KOKX.ZR.Y.0001.110201T2103Z-110202T1400Z/HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-403 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAINADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY.* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND LONG ISLAND.* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.* ACCUMULATIONS...BETWEEN 1/10 AND 1/4 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN BY MID MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGEOVER WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ICING AMOUNTS.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD KNOCK DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ORFREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.&&

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Guest stormchaser

Model forecast temperatures remain too high in NW NJ.

Model forecast temperatures for my location as of 4pm

Euro 29

GFS 27

NAM 24

Actual surface temperature is 21.

Werent you arguing that this was going to be a major snowstorm? I would have rather you have been right about that then the impending ice storm were going to have to deal with. For future reference you should realize that models underdo surface cold air and also underdo mid level warming. Keep that in mind for the next time we run into this situation, cold HP's help but they DO NOT translate into snow.

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They just changed from a WWA to FRZA what the heck is going on there? This is the 3rd product they've issued today..

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY403 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL BRING ICY CONDITIONS TO THE AREALATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NJZ006-106-108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-021100-/O.CAN.KOKX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-110202T1400Z//O.NEW.KOKX.ZR.Y.0001.110201T2103Z-110202T1400Z/HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-403 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAINADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY.* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND LONG ISLAND.* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.* ACCUMULATIONS...BETWEEN 1/10 AND 1/4 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN BY MID MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGEOVER WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ICING AMOUNTS.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD KNOCK DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ORFREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.&&

The WWA was for the overnight period, last night, and this morning's event. The FRZA is for tonight's.

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Not saying it will happen but it would definitely be ALOT easier with a wound up low driving into OH/PA pumping warm air into the region

Oh yes, I completely understand that. However, I still have concerns with coastal redevelopment expected near delmarva. Especially being that pretty much all guidance had me above freezing at this time while I'm currently at 27

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<BR>They just changed from a WWA to FRZA what the heck is going on there? This is the 3rd product they've issued today..<BR><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif, Verdana, Geneva">RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY403 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL BRING ICY CONDITIONS TO THE AREALATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NJZ006-106-108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-021100-/O.CAN.KOKX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-110202T1400Z//O.NEW.KOKX.ZR.Y.0001.110201T2103Z-110202T1400Z<U><STRONG>/</STRONG>HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU</U>-403 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAINADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY.* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND LONG ISLAND.* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.* ACCUMULATIONS...BETWEEN 1/10 AND 1/4 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN BY MID MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGEOVER WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ICING AMOUNTS.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD KNOCK DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ORFREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.&&</FONT><BR>

They continue to keep Bergen (Eastern and Western) in an Ice Storm Warning and out of these continuous switches.

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The WWA was for the overnight period, last night, and this morning's event. The FRZA is for tonight's.

No it wasn't. The WWA was issued at 319 PM for tonight and tomorrow morning and just changed now.

Go to this page. This shows the current advisory. http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.wwus41.KOKX.html

Then click for previous bulletins, and click on the one issued at 313 PM or whatever time it was.

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Things could be very bad for some tomorrow morning especially if the surface temps stay a bit colder than guidance suggests, which a lot of times they do. Low level cold tends to be very stubborn especially when you have a nice cold high in SE Canada. A .5" of ice glaze would be very damaging, anything over that could be destructive.

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Things could be very bad for some tomorrow morning especially if the surface temps stay a bit colder than guidance suggests, which a lot of times they do. Low level cold tends to be very stubborn especially when you have a nice cold high in SE Canada. A .5" of ice glaze would be very damaging, anything over that could be destructive.

Add to that the fact that we already have a lot of snow and ice on the trees, and we got big problems.

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It didn't start yet? So why is there freezing drizzle now?

And has there been a constant advisory this whole time? Yes. Just what would you like them to do? Issue a Ice Storm Warning and scream doom and gloom when they don't think it will happen? Stop with the frigging arguing already. You guys are acting like people are dying because there was no warning, when there has been plenty of it.

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And has there been a constant advisory this whole time? Yes. Just what would you like them to do? Issue a Ice Storm Warning and scream doom and gloom when they don't think it will happen? Stop with the frigging arguing already. You guys are acting like people are dying because there was no warning.

I want them to issue a warning because that's the smart and logical thing to do, coordinate with the other office, put the damn warning out, because people listen to warnings more. Who the hell are you anyway? And why are you trolling me from 100 miles away? Why don't you go out and play in the ice?

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Indeed...I've had freezing drizzle here all afternoon, and it still continues btw. On a side note, my road here is on a hill and I just saw a car NOT make it up. Turned around and went back the other way.

Probably was a car that's not too good in the snow to begin with, but that's pretty impressive.

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Indeed...I've had freezing drizzle here all afternoon, and it still continues btw. On a side note, my road here is on a hill and I just saw a car NOT make it up. Turned around and went back the other way.

Lol, I saw someone who ended up doing the same thing at 1am during last week's snowstorm as I also live on a hill. As dangerous as it can be it was quite amusing to watch with no other cars around at that hour.

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Why is every post of yours argumentative or poised at calling people out? This is a WEATHER board, people are DISCUSSING something and you always seem to come along and call everybody weenies. Pleas take a step down off your soapbox and either join us in discussion or dont read it.

That said- if it has not started yet then why have i been getting freezing drizzle and ice accretion all day long?

I am joining in the discussion, if you guys can't take getting called out for arguing about what warning is issued and such, honestly? That's not my problem. There has been an advisory all day, people have been warned. Just because you guys aren't getting the Ice Storm Warning you want, doesn't mean Upton should get trashed for a 1/2 page of this thread. If after the storm, you see Ice Storm Warning criteria icing? Have at it.

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I am joining in the discussion, if you guys can't take getting called out for arguing about what warning is issued and such, honestly? That's not my problem. There has been an advisory all day, people have been warned. Just because you guys aren't getting the Ice Storm Warning you want, doesn't mean Upton should get trashed for a 1/2 page of this thread. If after the storm, you see Ice Storm Warning criteria icing? Have at it.

So does that mean tomorrow we can create a whole thread bashing them when they bust? Will you, of no forecasting knowledge, own up to it then?

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I agree, and am afraid this could be another bust in NYC if Upton doesn't go with a warning for NYC. As there's a big difference in people's expectations in terms of "danger" when they hear the term "ice storm warning" versus "freezing rain advisory" or "winter weather advisory." Obviously the former sounds much more threatening.

that's probably true... although i bet more than half the population doesn't even know what freezing rain is.

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Guest stormchaser

I am joining in the discussion, if you guys can't take getting called out for arguing about what warning is issued and such, honestly? That's not my problem. There has been an advisory all day, people have been warned. Just because you guys aren't getting the Ice Storm Warning you want, doesn't mean Upton should get trashed for a 1/2 page of this thread. If after the storm, you see Ice Storm Warning criteria icing? Have at it.

I can take it, they are the preoffesionals, not I and i respect whatever their decision may be. However was it equally as necessary for you to come in here and tell people to "stop frigging arguing" or calling people weenies for discussing it? If people want to disagree with them then let them/us, is it hurting you in any manner for anyone to disagree? If there is a 1/2 page or full page or full thread of it, so what? It's a discussion board, if it upsets you so terribly then just skip it over.

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000

NOUS41 KOKX 011938

PNSOKX

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-020735-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

235 PM EST TUE FEB 01 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 27 HOURS

FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. SNOWFALL

REPORTS INCLUDE ANY COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED

TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS

AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR

HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...

DANBURY 2.9 100 PM 2/01 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NEWTOWN 2.6 1200 PM 2/01 PUBLIC

GREENWICH 1.8 800 AM 2/01 PUBLIC

BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 1.5 100 PM 2/01 COOP OBSERVER

NEW CANAAN 1.5 1015 AM 2/01 SKYWARN SPOTTER

3 SSE BROOKFIELD 1.0 700 AM 2/01 COCORAHS

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...

1 S PORTLAND 0.5 800 AM 2/01 COCORAHS

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...

3 ESE MILFORD 2.0 915 AM 2/01 COCORAHS

NORTH HAVEN 1.5 1155 AM 2/01 PUBLIC

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...

VOLUNTOWN 2.0 1141 AM 2/01 SKYWARN SPOTTER

LISBON 1.5 1045 AM 2/01 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...

1 SSE OAKLAND 1.0 840 AM 2/01 COCORAHS

RIDGEWOOD 0.7 100 PM 2/01 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...ESSEX COUNTY...

WEST ORANGE 0.5 1000 AM 2/01 PUBLIC

...PASSAIC COUNTY...

WAYNE 1.0 830 AM 2/01 SKYWARN SPOTTER

3 NE WEST MILFORD TW 1.0 600 AM 2/01 COCORAHS

CLIFTON 0.5 1030 AM 2/01 PUBLIC

NEW YORK

...NEW YORK COUNTY...

CENTRAL PARK 1.1 100 PM 2/01 CENTRAL PARK ZOO

...ORANGE COUNTY...

MOUNT HOPE 6.0 1135 AM 2/01 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MIDDLETOWN 5.5 1010 AM 2/01 PUBLIC

NEWBURGH 4.5 750 AM 2/01 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MONTGOMERY 4.0 700 AM 2/01 SKYWARN SPOTTER

GREENWOOD LAKE 3.8 100 PM 2/01 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NEW WINDSOR 3.8 100 PM 2/01 SKYWARN SPOTTER

GOSHEN 3.5 1031 AM 2/01 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MONROE 2.8 1200 PM 2/01 PUBLIC

HARRIMAN 2.6 1026 AM 2/01 PUBLIC

TUXEDO PARK 2.5 1030 AM 2/01 PUBLIC

2 SE MONROE 1.7 800 AM 2/01 COCORAHS

...PUTNAM COUNTY...

CARMEL 2.2 800 AM 2/01 COOP OBSERVER

4 ESE BEACON 1.7 645 AM 2/01 COCORAHS

8 NE COLD SPRINGS 1.3 625 AM 2/01 COCORAHS

...ROCKLAND COUNTY...

NEW HEMPSTEAD 2.2 1200 PM 2/01 PUBLIC

NYACK 1.8 1130 AM 2/01 PUBLIC

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...

ORIENT 2.0 200 PM 2/01 PUBLIC

PATCHOGUE 0.7 820 AM 2/01 NWS EMPLOYEE

2 NNE NORTHPORT 0.7 730 AM 2/01 COCORAHS

1 SSW JAMESPORT 0.5 900 AM 2/01 COCORAHS

3 SW RONKONKOMA 0.5 700 AM 2/01 NWS EMPLOYEE

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...

ARMONK 3.8 1215 PM 2/01 PUBLIC

CHAPPAQUA 3.5 1200 PM 2/01 PUBLIC

PORT CHESTER 3.2 1059 AM 2/01 DPW EMPLOYEE

YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 2.8 100 PM 2/01 SKYWARN SPOTTER

RYE 1.6 900 AM 2/01 PUBLIC

WHITE PLAINS 1.5 715 AM 2/01 PUBLIC

MAMARONECK 1.4 1000 AM 2/01 PUBLIC

2 NW SOUTH SALEM 0.8 800 AM 2/01 COCORAHS

***********************STORM TOTAL ICE***********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

ICE OF

/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...

ELMWOOD PARK 0.10 1200 PM 2/01 SKYWARN SPOTTER

RIDGEWOOD 0.05 100 PM 2/01 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...PASSAIC COUNTY...

CLIFTON 0.10 1030 AM 2/01 PUBLIC

NEW YORK

...NASSAU COUNTY...

NEW HYDE PARK 0.10 204 PM 2/01 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...ORANGE COUNTY...

MONROE 0.13 1200 PM 2/01 PUBLIC

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...

UPTON 0.10 100 PM 2/01 NWS OFFICE

$$

LN

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Based on temps being mostly in the mid 20's right now I think were going to have quite the icy situation on our hands rush hr tomorrow morning, and many people may not be expecting it. It appears that we'll get 0.5-1.0in of QPF tomorrow of which I believe at least a qtr is ZR/IP for the eastern part of the area and maybe from northern Nassau and Suffolk North and West you could be looking at close to 1/3 of the QPF as ZR. Once you get North of the city that is where I think you'll really encounter the major problems where the ZR will struggle at all to change to rain, esp from 287 North...I've never seen an ice-storm so I'm nervously anticipating this, hopefully everyone stays safe and doesn't lose power, although the latter is unlikely

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