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NYC Area February 1st-2nd OBS and Discussion


earthlight

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I believe Mt. Holly made the right move, as this has the potential to be a damaging ice storm across a rather large geographical area. I'm going to stick w/ synoptics over models here, and say that current timing for the ZR-RN changeover is a bit rushed on most data. With a strong 1032-33mb sfc high parked just NW of Maine, I expect the coastal front to progress no more than 10 miles or so inland from the beaches. Would not be surprised if Upton has to upgrade NYC from an advisory to an ice storm warning later tonight w/ cooler than progged ground temps. All in all, those of you that have generators should get those fired up as it may be a long night (and day tomorrow) for some.

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I believe Mt. Holly made the right move, as this has the potential to be a damaging ice storm across a rather large geographical area. I'm going to stick w/ synoptics over models here, and say that current timing for the ZR-RN changeover is a bit rushed on most data. With a strong 1032-33mb sfc high parked just NW of Maine, I expect the coastal front to progress no more than 10 miles or so inland from the beaches. Would not be surprised if Upton has to upgrade NYC from an advisory to an ice storm warning later tonight w/ cooler than progged ground temps. All in all, those of you that have generators should get those fired up as it may be a long night (and day tomorrow) for some.

Re that, I recall in the VD 2007 storm, the forecast was for mainly rain in Monmouth County, but I was looking at my wx station and noted the continually dropping temp, into the mid 20s on a NE. Knew something was up. Finally after several hours of icing, Mt. Holly included us in the ice storm warning. Basically what I'm saying is there's big bust potential for you folks in western Monmouth right along the border of that ice storm warning (or anyone near the border of warning vs advi). Pretty sharp difference in forecast, from .4-.7" ice accretion for Mercer County to a tenth or so in Monmouth.

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And still a WWA by Upton. I think this is going to be a big issue for the NYC area.

Makes no sense to me...I of course am biased as I would have liked to have an ice storm warning up so my night class would have been canceled..I'm not looking forward to skating home since I live in Stuy town which isn't going to be salted very well..

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I'm beginning to wonder if NYC is going to get above freezing at all tommorrow. I still think the urban heat factor saves them from a devistating storm as marginally below freezing surface temps should keep the accumulations just below warning criteria. What's scary for folks like me is that if the city doesn't get above freezing, I sure as heck won't and that probably means I'm in for a catastrophic event.

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Re that, I recall in the VD 2007 storm, the forecast was for mainly rain in Monmouth County, but I was looking at my wx station and noted the continually dropping temp, into the mid 20s on a NE. Knew something was up. Finally after several hours of icing, Mt. Holly included us in the ice storm warning. Basically what I'm saying is there's big bust potential for you folks in western Monmouth right along the border of that ice storm warning (or anyone near the border of warning vs advi). Pretty sharp difference in forecast, from .4-.7" ice accretion for Mercer County to a tenth or so in Monmouth.

We stayed below freezing here in SW Nassau during that storm.

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Not really sure why Upton decided to split Union County in half with the western side being under an Ice Storm Warning and the eastern side being under a Winter Weather Advisory, even the advisory area could see up to a quarter inch of ice. I am actually in the northeast corner of Middlesex County about a mile or so from the Union County border and we are under an Ice Storm Warning.

Anyone else find it odd that areas due south of NYC (Middlesex County, NJ) have an Ice Storm Warning for 0.4 to 0.7" of ice, while NYC, southern Westchester and even coastal SW CT only have an Advisory for 0.1-0.25" of ice?

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NWS OKX AFTN AFD UPDATE:

FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND

INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NW CT...TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO RISE ABOVE

FREEZING AT ALL ON WED. SO ALL PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL BE FREEZING

RAIN ALONG WITH SOME SLEET AND NO PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED. THIS WILL

RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS...WALKWAYS...

TREES AND POWER LINES. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. NUMEROUS

TREES AND POWER LINES CAN BE EXPECTED TO FALL...RESULTING IN POWER

OUTAGES. EVEN AREAS UNDER THE ADVISORY AND NOT THE ICE STORM

WARNING SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS...AS 1/4" OF ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL

TREACHEROUS AND COULD ALSO RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF BY WED EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...LIKELY AS

SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE COAST.

WITH STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THIS INTENSE SYSTEM...BITTERLY COLD

AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE LOCAL AREA WED NIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP

FAIRLY RAPIDLY INTO THE 20S...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A RAPID FREEZE

OF ANY LIQUID ON UNTREATED AND POSSIBLY EVEN TREATED SURFACES.

TRAVEL WED NIGHT COULD BECOME QUITE DANGEROUS.

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This is just out from upton, now is it me or wasn't that LP supposed to be a little further north? Forming right over us?

LOW PRES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK NE INTO THE

TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MIDNIGHT...THEN MOVES INTO WESTERN NY BY WED

MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE

DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT AND MAKE A RUN AT NYC WED MORNING THROUGH

EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK

AND POSITIONING OF THE LOW...WHERE THE GFS IS THE SLOWER OF THE

MODELS...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CLUSTERING AMONG THE

OPERATIONAL GFS...THE GEFS AND EVEN THE ECMWF...WHILE THE NAM

SEEMS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK AMONG THE MODELS.

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what is wrong with upton!? they have nyc .25 of ice atleast and still no warning, someone get intouch with em haha

SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM LATE TONIGHT...AND AS PRECIP MOVES

INTO THE REGION...WILL GENERALLY EXPECT FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME

SLEET POSSIBLE. H8 TEMPS WILL WARM TO 0-2C ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND

TO 2-4C FOR THE SOUTH. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR NOT WARMING

MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 20S...THIS SETS UP FOR A PROLONGED FREEZING

RAIN EVENT. ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS UP FOR THESE AREAS...AS UP

TO 1/2" ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...

GENERALLY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...NYC...COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE NJ

AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1/4" ARE

EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO

WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 40 IN SOME

SPOTS ON LONG ISLAND. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOK TO CHANGE TO

PLAIN RAIN WED MORNING ACROSS NYC/COASTAL NJ/LONG ISLAND AROUND

9AM...AND THEN AROUND NOON FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CT. WITH SUCH

WARM AIR ALOFT...NOT EXPECTING SNOW DURING THE DAY...SO WILL

REMOVE FROM FCST. WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN THE

REGION...COULD EVEN EXPERIENCE SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE

DAY WED.

Very good disco by Upton, I do expect parts of LI to reach 40 degrees. Even NYC and NE NJ should see a temp spike once the precip exists the area and before the cold shot moves in.

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I'm prepared not to have power at some point tomorrow...I'm in Putnam county about 55 miles north of NYC. We haven't had a real bad ice storm in quite some time and this looks like it is shaping up to be our next. I would much rather snow, and even plain rain.

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Guest stormchaser

25.7 at Kean as reported from the official weather center in the science building. A light drizzle continues to fall despite the radar showing nothing really. Trees are glazed and sidewalks are absolutely treacherous, thus the university is closed until further notice.

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Very good disco by Upton, I do expect parts of LI to reach 40 degrees. Even NYC and NE NJ should see a temp spike once the precip exists the area and before the cold shot moves in.

18z Nam text soundings for NYC.

It is in the 20's until hour 24. By hour 24, all the precip is out of the area.

http://68.226.77.253/text/meso/NAM_Knyc.txt

Hour 24 on the Nam.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_ref_024l.gif

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Sorry, but winds ain't shifting to the east with this damming setup for NYC. ENE at best for a few hours.

FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...

GENERALLY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...NYC...COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE NJ

AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1/4" ARE

EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO

WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 40 IN SOME

SPOTS ON LONG ISLAND. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOK TO CHANGE TO

PLAIN RAIN WED MORNING ACROSS NYC/COASTAL NJ/LONG ISLAND AROUND

9AM...AND THEN AROUND NOON FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CT. WITH SUCH

WARM AIR ALOFT...NOT EXPECTING SNOW DURING THE DAY...SO WILL

REMOVE FROM FCST. WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN THE

REGION...COULD EVEN EXPERIENCE SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE

DAY WED.

Very good disco by Upton, I do expect parts of LI to reach 40 degrees. Even NYC and NE NJ should see a temp spike once the precip exists the area and before the cold shot moves in.

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SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM LATE TONIGHT...AND AS PRECIP MOVES

INTO THE REGION...WILL GENERALLY EXPECT FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME

SLEET POSSIBLE. H8 TEMPS WILL WARM TO 0-2C ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND

TO 2-4C FOR THE SOUTH. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR NOT WARMING

MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 20S...THIS SETS UP FOR A PROLONGED FREEZING

RAIN EVENT. ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS UP FOR THESE AREAS...AS UP

TO 1/2" ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...

GENERALLY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...NYC...COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE NJ

AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1/4" ARE

EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO

WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 40 IN SOME

SPOTS ON LONG ISLAND. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOK TO CHANGE TO

PLAIN RAIN WED MORNING ACROSS NYC/COASTAL NJ/LONG ISLAND AROUND

9AM...AND THEN AROUND NOON FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CT. WITH SUCH

WARM AIR ALOFT...NOT EXPECTING SNOW DURING THE DAY...SO WILL

REMOVE FROM FCST. WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN THE

REGION...COULD EVEN EXPERIENCE SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE

DAY WED.

Very good disco by Upton, I do expect parts of LI to reach 40 degrees. Even NYC and NE NJ should see a temp spike once the precip exists the area and before the cold shot moves in.

LOL! VERY good idea to agree with them and go against Tony and Walt!

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Sorry, but winds ain't shifting to the east with this damming setup for NYC. ENE at best for a few hours.

Through the rest of today you mean?

Or at any point?

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Guest stormchaser

LOL! VERY good idea to agree with them and go against Tony and Walt!

Hows things around the corner there in Elizabeth my friend?

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Guest stormchaser

latest ice forecast from Upton :yikes:

StormTotalIceFcst.png

Yikes yikes yikes yikes.........

The meteorologist in me loves it.................the human side in me says holy crap its getting real

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