IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Mt. Holly just bumbed everyone from Trenton on north in their CWA up to an ICE STORM WARNING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hopefully tomorrow morning doesn't look like this. It certainly won't look like that, as there will be neither sleet nor wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Mt. Holly just bumbed everyone from Trenton on north in their CWA up to an ICE STORM WARNING And still a WWA by Upton. I think this is going to be a big issue for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I believe Mt. Holly made the right move, as this has the potential to be a damaging ice storm across a rather large geographical area. I'm going to stick w/ synoptics over models here, and say that current timing for the ZR-RN changeover is a bit rushed on most data. With a strong 1032-33mb sfc high parked just NW of Maine, I expect the coastal front to progress no more than 10 miles or so inland from the beaches. Would not be surprised if Upton has to upgrade NYC from an advisory to an ice storm warning later tonight w/ cooler than progged ground temps. All in all, those of you that have generators should get those fired up as it may be a long night (and day tomorrow) for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I believe Mt. Holly made the right move, as this has the potential to be a damaging ice storm across a rather large geographical area. I'm going to stick w/ synoptics over models here, and say that current timing for the ZR-RN changeover is a bit rushed on most data. With a strong 1032-33mb sfc high parked just NW of Maine, I expect the coastal front to progress no more than 10 miles or so inland from the beaches. Would not be surprised if Upton has to upgrade NYC from an advisory to an ice storm warning later tonight w/ cooler than progged ground temps. All in all, those of you that have generators should get those fired up as it may be a long night (and day tomorrow) for some. Re that, I recall in the VD 2007 storm, the forecast was for mainly rain in Monmouth County, but I was looking at my wx station and noted the continually dropping temp, into the mid 20s on a NE. Knew something was up. Finally after several hours of icing, Mt. Holly included us in the ice storm warning. Basically what I'm saying is there's big bust potential for you folks in western Monmouth right along the border of that ice storm warning (or anyone near the border of warning vs advi). Pretty sharp difference in forecast, from .4-.7" ice accretion for Mercer County to a tenth or so in Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 And still a WWA by Upton. I think this is going to be a big issue for the NYC area. Makes no sense to me...I of course am biased as I would have liked to have an ice storm warning up so my night class would have been canceled..I'm not looking forward to skating home since I live in Stuy town which isn't going to be salted very well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm beginning to wonder if NYC is going to get above freezing at all tommorrow. I still think the urban heat factor saves them from a devistating storm as marginally below freezing surface temps should keep the accumulations just below warning criteria. What's scary for folks like me is that if the city doesn't get above freezing, I sure as heck won't and that probably means I'm in for a catastrophic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Watching neighbor across the street trying to back his car up his driveway into carport. Not that much of an incline, but wheels are spinning on the ice. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re that, I recall in the VD 2007 storm, the forecast was for mainly rain in Monmouth County, but I was looking at my wx station and noted the continually dropping temp, into the mid 20s on a NE. Knew something was up. Finally after several hours of icing, Mt. Holly included us in the ice storm warning. Basically what I'm saying is there's big bust potential for you folks in western Monmouth right along the border of that ice storm warning (or anyone near the border of warning vs advi). Pretty sharp difference in forecast, from .4-.7" ice accretion for Mercer County to a tenth or so in Monmouth. We stayed below freezing here in SW Nassau during that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Not really sure why Upton decided to split Union County in half with the western side being under an Ice Storm Warning and the eastern side being under a Winter Weather Advisory, even the advisory area could see up to a quarter inch of ice. I am actually in the northeast corner of Middlesex County about a mile or so from the Union County border and we are under an Ice Storm Warning. Anyone else find it odd that areas due south of NYC (Middlesex County, NJ) have an Ice Storm Warning for 0.4 to 0.7" of ice, while NYC, southern Westchester and even coastal SW CT only have an Advisory for 0.1-0.25" of ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NWS OKX AFTN AFD UPDATE: FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NW CT...TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL ON WED. SO ALL PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL BE FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH SOME SLEET AND NO PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS...WALKWAYS... TREES AND POWER LINES. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES CAN BE EXPECTED TO FALL...RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES. EVEN AREAS UNDER THE ADVISORY AND NOT THE ICE STORM WARNING SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS...AS 1/4" OF ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS AND COULD ALSO RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. PRECIP TAPERS OFF BY WED EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...LIKELY AS SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE COAST. WITH STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THIS INTENSE SYSTEM...BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE LOCAL AREA WED NIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP FAIRLY RAPIDLY INTO THE 20S...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A RAPID FREEZE OF ANY LIQUID ON UNTREATED AND POSSIBLY EVEN TREATED SURFACES. TRAVEL WED NIGHT COULD BECOME QUITE DANGEROUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This is just out from upton, now is it me or wasn't that LP supposed to be a little further north? Forming right over us? LOW PRES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK NE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MIDNIGHT...THEN MOVES INTO WESTERN NY BY WED MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT AND MAKE A RUN AT NYC WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND POSITIONING OF THE LOW...WHERE THE GFS IS THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CLUSTERING AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS...THE GEFS AND EVEN THE ECMWF...WHILE THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK AMONG THE MODELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 what is wrong with upton!? they have nyc .25 of ice atleast and still no warning, someone get intouch with em haha SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM LATE TONIGHT...AND AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION...WILL GENERALLY EXPECT FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE. H8 TEMPS WILL WARM TO 0-2C ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TO 2-4C FOR THE SOUTH. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR NOT WARMING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 20S...THIS SETS UP FOR A PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN EVENT. ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS UP FOR THESE AREAS...AS UP TO 1/2" ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... GENERALLY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...NYC...COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE NJ AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1/4" ARE EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 40 IN SOME SPOTS ON LONG ISLAND. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOK TO CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN WED MORNING ACROSS NYC/COASTAL NJ/LONG ISLAND AROUND 9AM...AND THEN AROUND NOON FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CT. WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT...NOT EXPECTING SNOW DURING THE DAY...SO WILL REMOVE FROM FCST. WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN THE REGION...COULD EVEN EXPERIENCE SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WED. Very good disco by Upton, I do expect parts of LI to reach 40 degrees. Even NYC and NE NJ should see a temp spike once the precip exists the area and before the cold shot moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Noreaster, what's the difference between this set up and VD 2007, when JFK stayed below freezing throughout? Was that in a colder airmass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It's kind of funny how Newark is almost surrounded w/ an ice storm warning, with one to their W, SW and NE. Big bust potential in that area for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm prepared not to have power at some point tomorrow...I'm in Putnam county about 55 miles north of NYC. We haven't had a real bad ice storm in quite some time and this looks like it is shaping up to be our next. I would much rather snow, and even plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Noreaster, what's the difference between this set up and VD 2007, when JFK stayed below freezing throughout? Was that in a colder airmass? colder airmass stronger high pressure to the north, stronger ageostrophic flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 WOW anyone read the INDIANAPOLIS ice storm warning... POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC ICE STORM with 1" ice accumulation more in some spots.. Thats a good way to get everyone's attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 25.7 at Kean as reported from the official weather center in the science building. A light drizzle continues to fall despite the radar showing nothing really. Trees are glazed and sidewalks are absolutely treacherous, thus the university is closed until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Very good disco by Upton, I do expect parts of LI to reach 40 degrees. Even NYC and NE NJ should see a temp spike once the precip exists the area and before the cold shot moves in. 18z Nam text soundings for NYC. It is in the 20's until hour 24. By hour 24, all the precip is out of the area. http://68.226.77.253/text/meso/NAM_Knyc.txt Hour 24 on the Nam. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_ref_024l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Very rarely do you hear the NWS OKX proclaim "this is a dangerous situation". I think we have a long day or so ahead of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18z Nam text soundings for NYC. It is in the 20's until hour 24. By hour 24, all the precip is out of the area. http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_Knyc.txt Hour 24 on the Nam. http://www.nco.ncep....am_ref_024l.gif YIKES, NOT good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 what is wrong with upton!? they have nyc .25 of ice atleast and still no warning, someone get intouch with em haha warning criteria is 0.5" ice. I beleive confidence has to be 80% or greater for a warning. I would put my personal confidence in the city seeing totals like at at ~ 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sorry, but winds ain't shifting to the east with this damming setup for NYC. ENE at best for a few hours. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... GENERALLY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...NYC...COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE NJ AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1/4" ARE EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 40 IN SOME SPOTS ON LONG ISLAND. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOK TO CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN WED MORNING ACROSS NYC/COASTAL NJ/LONG ISLAND AROUND 9AM...AND THEN AROUND NOON FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CT. WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT...NOT EXPECTING SNOW DURING THE DAY...SO WILL REMOVE FROM FCST. WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN THE REGION...COULD EVEN EXPERIENCE SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WED. Very good disco by Upton, I do expect parts of LI to reach 40 degrees. Even NYC and NE NJ should see a temp spike once the precip exists the area and before the cold shot moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM LATE TONIGHT...AND AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION...WILL GENERALLY EXPECT FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE. H8 TEMPS WILL WARM TO 0-2C ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TO 2-4C FOR THE SOUTH. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR NOT WARMING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 20S...THIS SETS UP FOR A PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN EVENT. ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS UP FOR THESE AREAS...AS UP TO 1/2" ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... GENERALLY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...NYC...COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE NJ AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1/4" ARE EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 40 IN SOME SPOTS ON LONG ISLAND. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOK TO CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN WED MORNING ACROSS NYC/COASTAL NJ/LONG ISLAND AROUND 9AM...AND THEN AROUND NOON FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CT. WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT...NOT EXPECTING SNOW DURING THE DAY...SO WILL REMOVE FROM FCST. WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN THE REGION...COULD EVEN EXPERIENCE SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WED. Very good disco by Upton, I do expect parts of LI to reach 40 degrees. Even NYC and NE NJ should see a temp spike once the precip exists the area and before the cold shot moves in. LOL! VERY good idea to agree with them and go against Tony and Walt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sorry, but winds ain't shifting to the east with this damming setup for NYC. ENE at best for a few hours. Through the rest of today you mean? Or at any point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 latest ice forecast from Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 LOL! VERY good idea to agree with them and go against Tony and Walt! Hows things around the corner there in Elizabeth my friend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hows things around the corner there in Elizabeth my friend? Not too bad yet, expecting it to get bad after dark! Actually saw a few snow flakes about an hour ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 latest ice forecast from Upton Yikes yikes yikes yikes......... The meteorologist in me loves it.................the human side in me says holy crap its getting real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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