ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18z NAM appears a little colder. At 7am tomorrow, NYC is still below 32: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 besides some drizzle, i dont see any real precip into the NYC area untill early morning hours and by then the temp is rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 besides some drizzle, i dont see any real precip into the NYC area untill early morning hours and by then the temp is rising. Agree. Precip wont be in NYC until about 2-3am. And will fall as freezing rain until about 8am. .25" or thereabouts and then plain rain after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The 18z Nam is coming in colder for the NYC area. At hours 15-18, heavy precip comes into the area with below freezing temps. 850's are warm though. That's a big icestorm signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Agree. Precip wont be in NYC until about 2-3am. And will fall as freezing rain until about 8am. .25" or thereabouts and then plain rain after. agrees with the WWA for up to .25 ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 besides some drizzle, i dont see any real precip into the NYC area untill early morning hours and by then the temp is rising. NYC would still get several hours of freezing rain if it starts at 2-3AM, temps would still below freezing until about 8am or so. Mt. Holly raised ice storm warnings for NNJ including my county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 worst ice storm for the city especially the southern part was 12/16-17/1973...almost 1" of ice in Howard Beach...Less in Manhattan where more sleet fell...My block had more sleet and less ice/glaze... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Agree. Precip wont be in NYC until about 2-3am. And will fall as freezing rain until about 8am. .25" or thereabouts and then plain rain after. i dont see much more than an inch of total precip and that may be generous, we will probably dry slot pretty fast and have a temp spike before we cool down toward nightfall. Im not seeing much of a flash freeze threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If you look at the Nam at 21 hours, most of the precip is out of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Anyone else find it odd that areas due south of NYC (Middlesex County, NJ) have an Ice Storm Warning for 0.4 to 0.7" of ice, while NYC, southern Westchester and even coastal SW CT only have an Advisory for 0.1-0.25" of ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 About .50" of cold rain after we turn warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 worst ice storm for the city especially the southern part was 12/16-17/1973...almost 1" of ice in Howard Beach...Less in Manhattan where more sleet fell...My block had more sleet and less ice/glaze... and that is basically on the water, ice storms are possible on the south shore its just very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 besides some drizzle, i dont see any real precip into the NYC area untill early morning hours and by then the temp is rising. You seem to be missing the point.....Freezing drizzle has a MUCH easier time sticking to everything than a heavy rain does....By the time that heavy stuff gets here, the damage might have already been done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That was bad here on the Island, but the '73 storm in the City was the worst I've EVER seen. There was a half-inch of ice on EVERYTHING..... sidewalks, cars, tree limbs, wires...... unbelievable! It's hard to imagine any ice storm being worse than Jan 1994 though-- we had almost 2 inches of ice on everything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just based on the location of the high on the 18z NAM I still think it's warming up the surface temps too quickly but its an improvement from 12z if you like ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 HRRR is running 1-2 hours behind on the advance of heavy precip. in KY/TN, and it brings precip. into NYC and western LI by 3AM. besides some drizzle, i dont see any real precip into the NYC area untill early morning hours and by then the temp is rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Anyone else find it odd that areas due south of NYC (Middlesex County, NJ) have an Ice Storm Warning for 0.4 to 0.7" of ice, while NYC, southern Westchester and even coastal SW CT only have an Advisory for 0.1-0.25" of ice? I find it odd. I think Upton should issues Icestorm warnings for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 HRRR is running 1-2 hours behind on the advance of heavy precip. in KY/TN, and it brings precip. into NYC and western LI by 3AM. 18z NAM agrees with HRRR now too. Has precip entering NYC around 3am now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Anyone else find it odd that areas due south of NYC (Middlesex County, NJ) have an Ice Storm Warning for 0.4 to 0.7" of ice, while NYC, southern Westchester and even coastal SW CT only have an Advisory for 0.1-0.25" of ice? Yes, especially since Upton went with WWA for Eastern Union. Maybe a lack of correspondence between the offices. I cant see how .4-.7 verifies in Middlesex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Anyone else find it odd that areas due south of NYC (Middlesex County, NJ) have an Ice Storm Warning for 0.4 to 0.7" of ice, while NYC, southern Westchester and even coastal SW CT only have an Advisory for 0.1-0.25" of ice? Yes i find that very odd....and it makes no sense....difference in opinion between My holly and Upton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I find it odd. I think Upton should issues Icestorm warnings for the NYC area. I don't. With no precip falling and 12 hours before any arrives (just at the time when temps are progged to begin rising at the surface) I would certainly not issue an ice storm warning until at least this evening...if the trend is indeed colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monroe Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That was bad here on the Island, but the '73 storm in the City was the worst I've EVER seen. There was a half-inch of ice on EVERYTHING..... sidewalks, cars, tree limbs, wires...... unbelievable! I lived in Freehold NJ and I'm pretty sure that is the one I remember - was only 10. Went to catch bus and just fell down on front lawn. I don't know how much ice there was but school was out for 3 days and and we could ride our flyers on street until they finally sanded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just seeing on MTA.info that buses are being rerouted off Broad Street in lower manhattan due to the weather..Assuming we're getting some icy spots on the roads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just seeing on MTA.info that buses are being rerouted off Broad Street in lower manhattan due to the weather..Assuming we're getting some icy spots on the roads? Only puddles in midtown, and no precip falling (very, very light mist...more like fog). It appears to me as though even our drizzle has ceased until wave 2 comes along tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I don't. With no precip falling and 12 hours before any arrives (just at the time when temps are progged to begin rising at the surface) I would certainly not issue an ice storm warning until at least this evening...if the trend is indeed colder. As soon as the sun goes down this afternoon, wet spots will freeze quickly. When the precip arrives at 2-3am, it will still be 25-27 and everything would be frozen. The precip will accumulate easily as ice until 7am-8am. And according to NAM it would be .25"-.40" by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Not sure if its ice related TRANSCOM reports the southbound truck lanes of the New Jersey Turnpike at Exit 11 are closed for a police investigation. Southbound car lanes at Exit 11 presently have a 5 mile delay. Use alternate routes if possible. yea i heard it on cbs 880 when i was driving back to work from lunch, and this was at 1235pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 worst ice storm for the city especially the southern part was 12/16-17/1973...almost 1" of ice in Howard Beach...Less in Manhattan where more sleet fell...My block had more sleet and less ice/glaze... Yeah i do remember that one. O.J. Simpson ran over 200 yards on the Jets that Sunday......Och Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 As soon as the sun goes down this afternoon, wet spots will freeze quickly. When the precip arrives at 2-3am, it will still be 25-27 and everything would be frozen. The precip will accumulate easily as ice until 7am-8am. And according to NAM it would be .25"-.40" by then. We'll see, we'll see...but I don't think this is a situation where temps drop at all overnight, in fact I expect the reverse to happen. But I was wrong once. Edit: Incidentally, my relatively brisk NE wind has died out though my temp is down to 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hopefully tomorrow morning doesn't look like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think some people are going to be a little surprised how icy it is, getting very icy here now and just in time for rush hour. temp 27.4 DP 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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