NYC Area February 1st-2nd OBS and Discussion

[A-L-E-X]

Not much weather going on it seems, as this thread has become a discussion about hills on Long Island.

We can always talk about the hills on Staten Island-- Todt Hill is awesome There's some hilly areas in northern Manhattan and the Bronx too.

[FreeRain]

Sounds about as high as the part of Nassau around East Hills. That whole region was formed by terminal moraines from the last glacial period.

Perhps Lawrence Hill is only about 250'. I would have to check an elevation map.

I believe E Hills is higher. William would know.

[NorthShoreWx]

The elevation of Mt Sinai is 165 feet according to wunderground. Asharoken is 80 feet. How much of a temp difference should that translate to?

From an elevation perspective, almost nothing. However, given that Asharoken is a sand bar surrounded by the Sound, it's bound to be warmer (or cooler in the summer)

[IsentropicLift]

Pressure now falling in the midwest as the intensifying low approaches the area. High pressure up in Canada continuing to spread eastward. Our low that was north of VT is now down to 1032 and still seems to be getting absorbed by the much larger high to the west. A second area of 1033 mb high pressure is now located about 250 miles to the WNW of our origional high.

[EasternLI]

Steady precipitation has come to an end across most of the area...

Do you have any drizzle going on? Because I definitly do, and its not enough to be seen on radar. I'm starting to wonder if I end up with more ice than is forcast being that my temp still dropping, down to 29.0 now and the drizzle continues.

[A-L-E-X]

From an elevation perspective, almost nothing. However, given that Asharoken is a sand bar surrounded by the Sound, it's bound to be warmer (or cooler in the summer)

Ive always thought the geographical structure on that part of the north shore looked like dinosaurs sticking their heads into the sound-- Asharoken would be the "head' of the dinosaur. There used to be a station from there on wunderground; however, it's not there anymore. I use Centerport and East Northport to get representative data from that part of suffolk county.... east northport has a bit more elevation (about 200-220 feet).

[isnice]

Temperature now at 28.2, steadily rising.

[nycsnow]

what impact does the temps dropping in nyc have on ice for tonight?

[NorthShoreWx]

Ive always thought the geographical structure on that part of the north shore looked like dinosaurs sticking their heads into the sound-- Asharoken would be the "head' of the dinosaur. There used to be a station from there on wunderground; however, it's not there anymore. I use Centerport and East Northport to get representative data from that part of suffolk county.... east northport has a bit more elevation (about 200-220 feet).

These are all pinpoint loations. My area is a series of ridges and valleys...basically old glacial streams. Elevations in my neighborhood range from about 180 feet down to almost sea level at the Nissequogue River.

An interesting factoid...while we obsess about LI geography, about a mile southeast of here is a glacial esker; the only one known on LI. It is formed by deposits from a meltwater river flowing under a glacier.

Temp now 26 here.

[jconsor]

Yes, Harbor Hill in East Hills (adjacent to Roslyn) is higher - 348 ft. I grew up at the base of Harbor Hill. I find it hilarious that this site lists Harbor Hill as a "mountain."

http://www.mountainzone.com/mountains/detail.asp?fid=7631956

Perhps Lawrence Hill is only about 250'. I would have to check an elevation map.

I believe E Hills is higher. William would know.

[A-L-E-X]

Yes, Harbor Hill in East Hills (adjacent to Roslyn) is higher - 348 ft. I grew up at the base of Harbor Hill. I find it hilarious that this site lists Harbor Hill as a "mountain."

http://www.mountainz...asp?fid=7631956

I wonder if driving too fast coming down from the hill could make your ears pop.

BTW have you noticed in some marginal set ups that they'll be getting a few inches of snow while its just slush or even rain at lower elevations?

[A-L-E-X]

These are all pinpoint loations. My area is a series of ridges and valleys...basically old glacial streams. Elevations in my neighborhood range from about 180 feet down to almost sea level at the Nissequogue River.

An interesting factoid...while we obsess about LI geography, about a mile southeast of here is a glacial esker; the only one known on LI. It is formed by deposits from a meltwater river flowing under a glacier.

Temp now 26 here.

That's a gorgeous area-- do you have any pics from the area around the esker? That's got to be the southernmost extent of the last glacial period. Imagine living on long island at the height of glaciation. Perhaps there were human beings in the area at that time-- it ended about 10,000 years ago.

[A-L-E-X]

http://en.wikipedia...._glacial_period

The last glacial period was the most recent glacial period within the current ice age occurring during the last years of the Pleistocene, from approximately 110,000 to 10,000 years ago.[1]

During this period there were several changes between glacier advance and retreat. The maximum extent of glaciation was approximately 18,000 years ago. While the general pattern of global cooling and glacier advance was similar, local differences in the development of glacier advance and retreat make it difficult to compare the details from continent to continent (see picture of ice core data below for differences).

From the point of view of human evolution, it sets apart the periods paleolithic and mesolithic.

Wisconsin glaciation, in North America

The Wisconsin Glacial Episode was the last major advance of continental glaciers in the North American Laurentide ice sheet. At the height of glaciation the Bering land bridge potentially permitted migration of mammals, including humans, to North America from Siberia.

It radically altered the geography of North America north of the Ohio River. At the height of the Wisconsin Episode glaciation, ice covered most of Canada, the Upper Midwest, and New England, as well as parts of Montana and Washington. On Kelleys Island in Lake Erie or in New York's Central Park, the grooves left by these glaciers can be easily observed. In southwestern Saskatchewan and southeastern Alberta a suture zone between the Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheets formed the Cypress Hills, which is the northernmost point in North America that remained south of the continental ice sheets.

The Great Lakes are the result of glacial scour and pooling of meltwater at the rim of the receding ice. When the enormous mass of the continental ice sheet retreated, the Great Lakes began gradually moving south due to isostatic rebound of the north shore. Niagara Falls is also a product of the glaciation, as is the course of the Ohio River, which largely supplanted the prior Teays River.

With the assistance of several very broad glacial lakes, it carved the gorge now known as the Upper Mississippi River, filling into the Driftless Area and probably creating an annual ice-dam-burst.

In its retreat, the Wisconsin Episode glaciation left terminal moraines that form Long Island, Block Island, Cape Cod, Nomans Land, Marthas Vineyard, Nantucket, Sable Island and the Oak Ridges Moraine in south central Ontario, Canada. In Wisconsin itself, it left the Kettle Moraine. The drumlins and eskers formed at its melting edge are landmarks of the Lower Connecticut River Valley.

[Edge Weather]

Model forecast surface temperatures continue to be much too high in NW NJ.

Model forecast surface temperatures for my location at 1pm

Euro 27

GFS 24

NAM 24

Verification Temperature was 20

[NorthShoreWx]

That's a gorgeous area-- do you have any pics from the area around the esker? That's got to be the southernmost extent of the last glacial period. Imagine living on long island at the height of glaciation. Perhaps there were human beings in the area at that time-- it ended about 10,000 years ago.

Alas, I haven't found it yet. I've read about it on the SUNY site. Its probably not the edge of the glacier as it is a feature that formed under a glacier.

[Guest Pamela]

Do you have any drizzle going on? Because I definitly do, and its not enough to be seen on radar. I'm starting to wonder if I end up with more ice than is forcast being that my temp still dropping, down to 29.0 now and the drizzle continues.

There is freezing drizzle here. The last 12 hours worked out a bit differently than I thought they would.

[NorthShoreWx]

For Alex (and maybe others). Here are some great terrain maps for LI. You'll want to download and save a copy of the large images:

http://people.hofstra.edu/J_B_Bennington/research/long_island/li.html

[EasternLI]

There is freezing drizzle here. The last 12 hours worked out a bit differently than I thought they would.

I thought the same....Frz drizzle ongoing....temp now 27.9....DP 27.....This is going to be bad if the drizzle continues for the rest of the day

[A-L-E-X]

For Alex (and maybe others). Here are some great terrain maps for LI. You'll want to download and save a copy of the large images:

http://people.hofstr..._island/li.html

Thanks! I've been looking for something like this for awhile

[A-L-E-X]

I thought the same....Frz drizzle ongoing....temp now 27.9....DP 27.....This is going to be bad if the drizzle continues for the rest of the day

It's down to 28 even here; there's a thin layer of ice on everything.

[Quincy]

just a quick check of the NAM 2m temp trends for the morning. used 9z as a benchmark, but each of the last four runs has trended cooler for the entire area, except for areas S and E of PHL. (generally negligible changes there)

stuck at 21F here and I went with a high of 27F. going to have a very tough time getting there.

[Dosh]

Still 29 in New Brunswick and steady for at least the last hour. Looks like my area won't last too long below freezing come the second batch.

[EasternLI]

Starting to hear MANY accident reports in my area...BE CAREFUL OUT THERE

[patrick05]

i went to school at 1130am and we were at around 34F (per KISP), now we're down to 26F and the school has closed...

[jconsor]

Freezing drizzle is worse in many ways than heavy freezing rain, because people think there's no icing and therefore don't use proper caution on the roads.

Starting to hear MANY accident reports in my area...BE CAREFUL OUT THERE

[EasternLI]

Freezing drizzle is worse in many ways than heavy freezing rain, because people think there's no icing and therefore don't use proper caution on the roads.

I totally agree....Frz drizzle is the worst, plus it has no trouble building up on everything.....especially with temps in the 20's

[Jefflaw77]

While it's gotten colder over the past few hours and some of us are experiecing freezing drizzle, with this bomb of a storm (see water vapor map) developing in the plains states which appears to be nothing but a lakes cutter, (it appears to be headed directly toward the ohio valley and then up west toward Detroit).. How are we going to get more than a period of frozen precip before turning to rain in the NYC metro area.. I would appear as though with a system this strong going way to our west, we're basically doomed. What am I missing here?

Jeff

[stockmanjr]

Freezing drizzle is worse in many ways than heavy freezing rain, because people think there's no icing and therefore don't use proper caution on the roads.

Some NYCTA buses are being rerouted due to impassable streets out in Southern Brooklyn and Eastern Queens..Wondering if it's from ice?

[KEITH L.I]

Hearing about accident's on Northern State in Western Suffolk

[sferic]

What's the prognosis for an ice storm on Long Island for tonight?