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NYC Area February 1st-2nd OBS and Discussion


earthlight

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Of course not every part of NYC is high urbanized I mean SI/Eastern Queens/Parts of NW Bronx(Riverdale) and areas like Throgs Neck are certainly more like the burbs then Urban. I've been in the burb part of the city during a freezing rain event and it isn't pretty on the sidewalks...

I agree; southern Brooklyn isn't as urbanized as Manhattan either. In addition, with temps in the mid-20s that may drop some more overnight, it would help mitigate the effects of any urbanization heat island effect as opposed to having temps in the 30-32* F degree range.

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Not yet, but cold spring harbor reporting a temp of 22.4, 25.2 in northport, and i did have a high of around 32 degrees earlier today which was consistent at the time with other reports. I will try calibrating it in a little while with the ice water method.

Miller Place and Mt Sinai would agree with you. Where did you get the Cold Spring Harbor temp? Theyre not on the north shore and arent usually one of the colder spots on the Island-- despite its name :P

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That WeatherBug station in Cold Spring Harbor is running a good 2-3F too cold - I wouldn't use it for any comparison purposes.

Not yet, but cold spring harbor reporting a temp of 22.4, 25.2 in northport, and i did have a high of around 32 degrees earlier today which was consistent at the time with other reports. I will try calibrating it in a little while with the ice water method.

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Latest from Upton, just as I feared based on the warnings, Upton not buying the warm up as advertised on the NAM/GFS.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --PRECIPITATION IS TAPERING OFF...WITH SNOW/SLEET FALLING ACROSS CT

AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH PLAIN

DRIZZLE ACROSS LONG ISLAND...WHICH HAS RISEN ABOVE FREEZING.

PARTS OF CT COULD PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF

SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF

LATE.

MAX TEMPS ON TRACK TO TOP OFF IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR

AND AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WED

MORNING. MODELS INDICATING A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS EVENING...SO

LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE REGION TO CHANCE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AS LOW PRES APPROACHES TONIGHT...PRECIP BEGINS IN EARNEST ONCE

AGAIN. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY...THEN CATEGORICAL...FROM WEST

TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH SFC TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S

ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST...THERMAL

PROFILES FROM THE 12Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING A WIDESPREAD

FREEZING RAIN EVENT. WILL BUMP UP ICE TOTALS TO AROUND 1/2" FOR

THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ AS WELL AS

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD AND NORTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES IN CT...AND

WILL CONVERT WINTER STORM WARNING TO ICE STORM WARNING FOR THOSE

LOCATIONS. FROM HERE ON OUT...H8 TEMPS WILL WARM TO ANYWHERE FROM

+2C TO +4C WHILE SFC TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. BY LATE

MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL TURN TO ALL RAIN ALONG THE

COAST. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...AS WELL AS PLACEMENT...

AS IT APPEARS AS IF THE WARM SFC AIR COULD REACH SOUTHERN CT BY

WED AFTERNOON.

IF THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS A LITTLE FURTHER S THAN CURRENTLY

EXPECTED...THEN NYC MIGHT NOT HAVE THE COASTAL FRONT GO

THROUGH...AND THUS WOULD NOT CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN...AND THE

TRANSITION ELSEWHERE WOULD BE DELAYED.

PRECIPITATION SLOWLY TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E LATE WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE

NE. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY

INTERIOR SRN CT COULD END UP IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS OF THE

DEPARTING LOW...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS ON THE

BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS NOT CONSIDERED

LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

COLD AIR POURS INTO THE LOW LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A RAPID FREEZE OF ANY LIQUID ON UNTREATED

AND POSSIBLY EVEN TREATED SURFACES.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN THURSDAY

WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED.-- End Changed Discussion --

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Miller Place and Mt Sinai would agree with you. Where did you get the Cold Spring Harbor temp? Theyre not on the north shore and arent usually one of the colder spots on the Island-- despite its name :P

Cold Spring is on the north shore. Its in between Hempstead Harbor and Northport.

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Our dots on the map are very close...I'm under the red dot that I drew on this map. It has definitely cooled quickly along the north shore. That cooling may make it down across the entire island over time:

post-290-0-38306400-1296581293.jpg

Yes it does look like it should spread to most areas on the island with time. I was no expecting it to drop so sharply so early...almost like a cold front passage.

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Cold Spring Harbor is on the north shore where the county lines on Nassau ands Suffolk meet. It might be inside a bay/inlet but they are still on the north shore.

Yes cold spring harbor is very much on the north shore, alex must have been thinking about another town. it even has cold in the name :P

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Really? How did you come to this conclusion? Why are they different from other places on the north shore (or the central parts of the island)?

You helped lol. I used the snowfall maps on your site and zeroed that area down as being the snowiest part of Long Island. I also looked at the geographical location-- that area has the longest fetch over the Sound so they probably do the best with sound enhancement. Furthermore, checking weather underground PWS data, Mt Sinai and Miller Place always seem to be the coldest during storms. Just like with this one (I posted the map earlier.)

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Both the Mt. Sinai and Miller Place Wunderground stations appear to have about a 3F cold bias. Surrounding stations are in the 26-28F range.

Yup, Im right--- Mt Sinai and Miller Place are both around 23.4 and 23.5 degrees; even Bridgeport is at 23F and I find places on the North Shore of LI mimick the South Shore of CT.

Some wunderground data:

post-143-0-04754500-1296581442.jpg

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Both the Mt. Sinai and Miller Place Wunderground stations appear to have about a 3F cold bias. Surrounding stations are in the 26-28F range.

Do you think that might be the case with two different sensors? Maybe. Usually I find Shoreham right in line with them, but this time its a bit off so you might be right. During most storms, Ive found Miller Place, Mt Sinai and Shoreham to be within a few tenths of each other.

What do you think of the idea that this region is the snowiest place on long island, based on location, fetch of northerly winds off the Sound, etc.?

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That WeatherBug station in Cold Spring Harbor is running a good 2-3F too cold - I wouldn't use it for any comparison purposes.

No wonder I couldnt find it-- weatherbug lol. I dont use that service at all because I've found them to be highly inaccurate.

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Yes it does look like it should spread to most areas on the island with time. I was no expecting it to drop so sharply so early...almost like a cold front passage.

I think it was something like a cold front with the wind shift...maybe a subspecies of coastal front :)

It's now down to 27 here ...which is about where it was during the coldest part of the pre-dawn hours. Not a good thing if someone has been driving since it was 33 and is assuming that the roads can't be icing.

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