PatrickSumner Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Trend not my friend..and with that said, I'm going to bed. Just keep an eye on temperature and your observations. It's NOWCASTING time anyways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The blizzard begins. Report of whiteout conditions in Moore, OK, which is between OKC & Norman. It's epic here in Norman. 0.25 mile VSBY at best. Ripping +SN maybe still some IP as well...about to go outside and check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What's the QPF for STL on the 6z NAM? Thanks again. A little over 1" it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 That doesn't shock me, because my high was supposed to only be in the mid 50's but it's already 55 here. Warm air might be coming north quicker than expected? It's certainly good for the northern part of the PAH CWA because this will cause there ice accumulation to be lower. Wonder if this will affect the folks that are just near the freezing rain. I've been concerned about an ice threat sneaking farther north. The 6z NAM isn't quite there for LAF but one more warmer/north bump and all bets are off. Gonna be watching the trends like a hawk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM has really bumped up the QPF here it looks like. Probably around .5 qpf for the 2nd storm while 0z nam was around .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Trend not my friend..and with that said, I'm going to bed. Anyone outside of the 12" zone will have to pay very close attention to surface temps and 850 temp data.. the gradient is so tight on the east side of the storm a shift of 25-30 miles could mean the difference between 4" w/ .5 - 1.0 of ice and 12-15" of all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 All snow here in Norman now...on that note I'm gonna hold off on going outside until (a) it gets light enough to take decent pictures again or ( I see a potentially convective band about to hit me. Also I can tell accurate measurements are going to be futile, as the blowing snow is already crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I've been concerned about an ice threat sneaking farther north. The 6z NAM isn't quite there for LAF but one more warmer/north bump and all bets are off. Gonna be watching the trends like a hawk. How much ice you get so far, assuming you got ice. Where do u live anyways, LAF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 temps here have dropped, down to 29.4 that is great news for us...right on schedule...ice taking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Anyone outside of the 12" zone will have to pay very close attention to surface temps and 850 temp data.. the gradient is so tight on the east side of the storm a shift of 25-30 miles could mean the difference between 4" w/ .5 - 1.0 of ice and 12-15" of all snow. Yep and even seeing a tight gradient with temperatures down here. It's 55 here. Paducah which is 45 miles to north is 42 and Harrisburg which like 30 miles north of Paducah is 34. So a 21 degree difference in only 75 miles. Going to be a fun day to watch where the temperature gradients set up when it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think we must be getting alot of LES right now, easily moderate snow with only 10 dBZ aloft. That just doesn't add up. The LES bands close enough for the radar to see have 25-30 dBZ, more in line with what's happening here. Strongest LES setup tomorrow night when winds get up to 50 kt out of the east at 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 the models are smoking crack...this storm is dynamic....this will be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Have picked up 4.5" of very dense WAA snows in the past 3 hours. Incredible snowfall rates here for not being a lake effect event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 the models are smoking crack...this storm is dynamic....this will be huge. Yea the insane thunderstorm we got 5 hours ago here sold me on the dynamics of this one lol. This is gonna be awesome over the next 9 hours or so here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 CLE picked up 0.18" liquid equivalent snow last hour at a temperature of 19. Absolutely crazy, these are east coast type snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Alright, last one... 7z RUC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 dynamical cooling will play a huge role. Precip forming SW of us, with convective look, def sleet entering into colder airmass..will update if any snow is reported down this way as temps crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Does anyone know Ice Storm Warning criteria for CR by chance? Curious why theres not one in effect for indiana, or at least a watch. I'm not a warning weenie, don't get me wrong, the WSW more than covers the situation, just wondering why they might not get more specific with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Alright, last one... 7z RUC... What are the temps for me on this? The heavies return on there is sitting on me 40-45dbz. Wondering if its zr or just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sleet in the Rolla, MO area heading NE towards STL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 They busted on that already. I've got .25 of ice already and they got me close to only 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What are the temps for me on this? The heavies return on there is sitting on me 40-45dbz. Wondering if its zr or just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Lol thanks, but I guess it don't really tell me much.. between 30-40 degrees, it could be 30, 31 or 32 and it'd be zr, and obviously 33 up just rain.. So I guess the temp map for the ruc don't help much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Answered my question: FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH STORM AND IMPACTS. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SO USED A BLEND. TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE. THIS COULD WARM THINGS UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH. THE WARMING/MOISTENING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAVY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THIS SHOULD STILL SEE SNOW BUT COULD SEE SLEET MIX IN AS WELL. ALSO WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SURFACE LOW ARRIVES EXPECT TO SEE WINDS PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY AND THUS EXPECTING ANYWHERE THAT SEES SNOW WILL SEE BLOWING SNOW. THE SLEET COULD TEMPER THIS SOMEWHAT AND THUS KEPT IT JUST AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WHILE THE CHANCE FOR SLEET IS THERE. AFTER 9Z SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE AREA TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BUT COULD SEE SOME SLEET IN THE EAST AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT MAY NOT HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA JUST YET. HEAVIEST SNOW AND ICE SHOULD BE SEEN ACCUMULATING BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z AS THE ISENTROPIC...LOW LEVEL JET...AND UPPER DYNAMIC FORCING ARE ALL MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOK LIKE ONLY ABOUT AN INCH NORTH WITH HALF AN INCH OR SO CENTRAL. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HOWEVER STILL LOOK LIKE OVER A FOOT IN THE NORTHWEST. ICE ACCUMULATIONS STILL AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE IN SPEED BY THIS EVENING AND BY TONIGHT COULD SEE 25-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. THIS WILL WREAK HAVOC ON POWER LINES AND TREES THAT ARE COVERED IN ICE AND RESULT IN LONG DURATION POWER OUTAGES. THE ICE ITSELF WILL CAUSE TRAVEL TO BE VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. WHILE THE CASE COULD BE MADE FOR A BLIZZARD WARNING IN THE NORTHWEST AND AN ICE STORM WARNING ALONG THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THINK IT IS BEST AT THIS TIME WITH THE MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AND FOR CLARITY TO THE PUBLIC TO CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER STORM WARNING. THE WEATHER WILL BE DANGEROUS IN ALL THESE AREAS AND THAT CASE HAS ALREADY BEEN MADE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 lol at DTX. Even the Weather Channel is calling for 10-15" JUST on Tuesday night with an ADDITIONAL 4-6" Wednesday. Anyway, I noticed Harry is under a Blizzzard Warning. Congratulaitons and stay safe!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 lol at DTX. Even the Weather Channel is calling for 10-15" JUST on Tuesday night with an ADDITIONAL 4-6" Wednesday. Anyway, I noticed Harry is under a Blizzzard Warning. Congratulaitons and stay safe!!!! Hey now, DTX is about to make me look like a genius to everyone in my hometown (Lake Orion), as I'm forecasting 12-16". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Indy already has 0.63 inches of ZR. Going to be an absolute nightmare for those folks if they can't get above freezing with the main event. http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KIND.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ewww, I hope the NAM is still out to lunch as of its 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 318 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011 ...DANGEROUS MULTIFACETED AND LIFE THREATENING WINTER STORM TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON... ...FINAL PREPARATIONS PRIOR TO THE STORM SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS MORNING... ILZ003>006-008-010>014-020-022-INZ001-002-011730- /O.CON.KLOT.BZ.W.0001.110201T2100Z-110202T2100Z/ WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK- KENDALL-WILL-LAKE IN-PORTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK... WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO... OSWEGO...JOLIET...GARY...VALPARAISO 318 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY... A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY. * TIMING...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTH TO THE WISCONSIN STATE LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW MAY COME IN A COUPLE OF WAVES...WITH THE FIRST WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE OF INTENSE SNOW LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 10 TO 18 INCHES IS LIKELY TOWARD ROCKFORD AND DIXON. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 FEET POSSIBLE. * WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH LIKELY TONIGHT. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH. * BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...THE STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH BLOWING AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY FALLING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED SNOW PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOCALLY VERY INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO SEE SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES PER HOUR IN THUNDERSNOW MAKING TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. * TRAVEL...ROAD CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SNOW DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME TREACHEROUS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS BY EARLY EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE RESULTING IN WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE SO INTENSE AT TIMES THAT ROAD CREWS WILL BE UNABLE TO KEEP EVEN PRIMARY ROADS AND HIGHWAYS CLEARED. UNNECESSARY TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED AT ALL COSTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MORE THAN HALF OF THE FATALITIES IN PREVIOUS ILLINOIS BLIZZARDS HAVE OCCURRED AS A RESULT OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS. BEFORE MAKING THE DECISION TO TRAVEL...CONSIDER IF GETTING TO YOUR DESTINATION IS WORTH PUTTING YOUR LIFE AT RISK. * POWER OUTAGES...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY WET SNOW STICKING TO POWERLINES COULD RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES. DUE TO THE PROLONGED NATURE OF VERY ADVERSE CONDITIONS...PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A PROLONGED DISRUPTION IN COMMERCIAL POWER. * OTHER IMPACTS...THE HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE SHOVELING EXTREMELY DIFFICULT...AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY. DURING AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE BLIZZARD OF 1999 OVER 40 PEOPLE IN THE CHICAGO AREA ALONE LOST THEIR LIVES TO HEART ATTACKS WHILE SHOVELING THE HEAVY SNOWFALL. IF YOU MUST SHOVEL THE SNOW...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS INDOORS AND DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE TASK AT HAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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