turtlehurricane Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I thought things would start to wind down but they aren't. Getting good bursts of moderate snow, with nice batches of precip riding up the band and filling it in. 0.27" liquid, which would be a very decent clipper by itself. 4.1" being observed in Middleton, with 5.0" just SW of Madison, so probably averaging around 5" as of now across the Madison area. I believe it with the depth out there. Main precip on the heels of the first system already, sliding up into MO. Probably won't get much of a precip break before all that starts hitting later today. Best part is, today is my birthday. Couldn't ask for much more from nature! Well, maybe a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Gonna be hard to miss that dry slot. Back home MAY be near enough to the pivot point. It's going to be close too. Still nervous about mixing issues back home, as well. I guess that's what makes these storms so interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 just a bit of 850mb frontogenesis going on...def worthy of being saved. By looking at that chart, can you predict where the deformation band will be forming? Not familiar with winter weather forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Gonna be hard to miss that dry slot. Back home MAY be near enough to the pivot point. It's going to be close too. Still nervous about mixing issues back home, as well. I guess that's what makes these storms so interesting! Jasper should be ok. I can't imagine the warm air getting THAT far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just found that MSN had 4.4" of snow on 0.26" liquid as of midnight, a more modest 17:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 already looking big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 There have been a few decent snow totals across northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin, but this WAA event has been a disappointment down here. When I shoveled a couple hours ago there may have been a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Jasper should be ok. I can't imagine the warm air getting THAT far north. WAA and the associated upper level warm noses always scare me a bit, just cause it's done a number on our area more than a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Seems like the first part of this has gone fairly close to expected. Almost time for the sh*t to hit the fan. I'm gonna be curious to see how far north the serious ice threat gets. Models notoriously do not handle strong advection scenarios all that well. I'd be pretty concerned down towards Mottster and obviously the IND area. Hoosier, I suck at winter forecasts. Hell, I suck at winter nowcasts. It feels to me like the storm didn't meet expectations today, with precip being mostly sleet? Or have I just read too much into tomorrows hype, and tried to bleed that over into the last 6 hours of precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 1207 AM SNOW 2 SW FOND DU LAC 43.76N 88.48W 02/01/2011 M3.0 INCH FOND DU LAC WI CO-OP OBSERVER 3 inches sounds about right, should have about 3.4 or 3.5 now since that report was at 12:07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 WAA and the associated upper level warm noses always scare me a bit, just cause it's done a number on our area more than a few times. I hear ya and that's a big part of why I'm leaning on the pessimistic side for LAF. There's a lot of wiggle room up north though...it would be a pretty huge model failure if it made it that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 There have been a few decent snow totals across northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin, but this WAA event has been a disappointment down here. When I shoveled a couple hours ago there may have been a half inch. I'm curious as to see what back @ home received, because they were getting some good returns for quite awhile. I am thinking between 2-3" fell, but I'm not completely positive if it stayed 100% snow. Anyways, reports from Cook County came in around 0.8-1.3", and roughly a 11:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 a good deal of thunder and lightning reports down south already, would think it would only get better. really liking my chances for some TSSN here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 FDR radar site in SW OK shows area of snow across NW TX/SW OK rapidly filling in the last 45 minutes. Getting good vibes about this. FDR radar loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hoosier, I suck at winter forecasts. Hell, I suck at winter nowcasts. It feels to me like the storm didn't meet expectations today, with precip being mostly sleet? Or have I just read too much into tomorrows hype, and tried to bleed that over into the last 6 hours of precip? Tomorrow has always been the much bigger event. Consider yourself lucky if it's been mostly sleet so far. Later on the LLJ will be much stronger which will ensure pronounced warmth aloft and less of a chance of sleet unless you're well north of Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm curious as to see what back @ home received, because they were getting some good returns for quite awhile. I am thinking between 2-3" fell, but I'm not completely positive if it stayed 100% snow. Anyways, reports from Cook County came in around 0.8-1.3", and roughly a 11:1 ratio. I think my Dad told me tonight they had around 2" (all snow) in Kankakee. Speaking of IKK, their point and click for Tuesday night is mind boggling to me...in a good way. Tuesday Night: Periods of snow and areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 17. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a northeast wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think my Dad told me tonight they had around 2" (all snow) in Kankakee. Speaking of IKK, their point and click for Tuesday night is mind boggling to me...in a good way. Tuesday Night: Periods of snow and areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 17. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a northeast wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible. Yep, that's my point forecast as well. The only thing wrong about it is that the only direction from here is down. Unless, of course, this thing takes some visine and loses control all over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think my Dad told me tonight they had around 2" (all snow) in Kankakee. Speaking of IKK, their point and click for Tuesday night is mind boggling to me...in a good way. Tuesday Night: Periods of snow and areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 17. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a northeast wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible. I really like the thunder potential along my earlier stated line (COU-UIN-PIA-IKK), hence the higher forecast totals in that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 FWIW Jan 1999 had 16.4" back in my hometown, and was the second largest snowstorm on record. Of course records around my area aren't the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yep, that's my point forecast as well. The only thing wrong about it is that the only direction from here is down. Unless, of course, this thing takes some visine and loses control all over us. Ha, I hear ya. The bar is set pretty high with those numbers. I really like the thunder potential along my earlier stated line (COU-UIN-PIA-IKK), hence the higher forecast totals in that band. You have been touting that as your sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 FWIW Jan 1999 had 16.4" back in my hometown, and was the second largest snowstorm on record. Of course records around my area aren't the best. Had 18" in Kankakee with that one. Record though is Jan 1967, somewhere in the 21-22" territory I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Had 18" in Kankakee with that one. Record though is Jan 1967, somewhere in the 21-22" territory I believe. Ours is a little over 19". 5" more, though, and we've got to take the 10 shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 one more...now going to bed, up at 7 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well I made it home from work. I cant tell how much but we have a ton of sleet with a nice coating of ice on top of it. Have a glaze on all surfaces also. Probably .15-.25in of ice so far. Waiting to see how tomorrow goes. This is a situation where you dont believe it going to be as bad as they say, and you wont know until its occuring. Ive never encountered a big ice storm...So im in the wait and see mode here 20 miles N of IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just went outside...sleet layer is very noticeable. Seems like there's some freezing drizzle right now. Temp is at 19. Very light glaze on my car...probably like 0.05" lol edit: light freezing rain on the last LAF ob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ours is a little over 19". 5" more, though, and we've got to take the 10 shots. I gladly join you in those 10 shots if it happens with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just went outside...sleet layer is very noticeable. Seems like there's some freezing drizzle right now. Very light glaze on my car...probably like 0.05" lol Yeah, touch the "snowpack"...pretty dense. (As would be expected with sleet). BTW, sleet runs at a 3:1 ratio, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just went outside...sleet layer is very noticeable. Seems like there's some freezing drizzle right now. Temp is at 19. Very light glaze on my car...probably like 0.05" lol edit: light freezing rain on the last LAF ob You got your ice "storm" then. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I gladly join you in those 10 shots if it happens with this storm. Well then you better get ready to go to Harry's soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 one more...now going to bed, up at 7 30. Nice! Think I'm gonna hit it too. Got a long day at work tomorrow. See you guys tomorrow night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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