Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 24hrs: 1000mb SLP centered in the IL/KY/TN/AR/MO border area. Nice hit from TUL to DVN. 30hrs: 996mb SLP near Terre Haute, In. Same location and strength as 12z run. Nice hit from KC to far S. Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hey can you link me to the site you get the 24hr RUC from? The NCEP one goes to 18hr I believe. http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 30hrs: 996mb SLP near Terre Haute, In. Same location and strength as 12z run. Nice hit from KC to far S. Michigan. 36hrs: 1000mb SLP in NE. Ohio. Likely a weaker occluded SLP in N/C. Indiana. Nice hit from DVN to YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I hear ya, my drive home from work tomorrow evening looks downright awful, as for Wednesday...I expect a lot of shut down roads/interstates...and likely having police telling people to stay off the roads or get a ticket. They usually do that in really bad storms...they only want plows and emergency vehicles on the roads, thats it. I heard a lot of pessimistic people today at the store...its unreal. The storms is knocking on the doorstep and people aren't heeding the warnings or blowing it off. Hope they don't get stranded because they won't get rescued. Yeah Dwyer and Michaels were sort of playing up the hype on the radio this morning in sort of a sarcastic fashion. We've been burned so many times over the last 10 years after all they hype that I think some folks have become a little complacent to word of the storm. I think this will give people in the QC a reality check in that these big storms actually can happen lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 36hrs: 1000mb SLP in NE. Ohio. Likely a weaker occluded SLP in N/C. Indiana. Nice hit from DVN to YYZ. 42hrs: Sub 1000mb SLP centered in PA. Decent hit from ORD to YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah Dwyer and Michaels were sort of playing up the hype on the radio this morning in sort of a sarcastic fashion. We've been burned so many times over the last 10 years after all they hype that I think some folks have become a little complacent to word of the storm. I think this will give people in the QC a reality check in that these big storms actually can happen lol. I could tell you how I really feel about those two due to some past run ins, but I won't I don't want to get banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Likely wetter for ORD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Moderate IP/SN....just now got a CG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 How's it look for STL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Moderate IP/SN....just now got a CG! Cool, and congrats!!!! Its an awesome thing to experience. I love thunderstorms in winter precip, its great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Measured exactly a half inch of new WAA snow. Sort of a letdown compared to what models indicated previously, but obviously that's tempered by what's coming tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 List of ECMWF QPF coming soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 30hrs: 996mb SLP near Terre Haute, In. Same location and strength as 12z run. Nice hit from KC to far S. Michigan. Yep, 4km NMM WRF run actually slaps the low in almost that exact location, right near the IL/IN border. It was about 1-2 hrs too slow, but otherwise looking good. Should be similar with the QPF I would imagine. Regardless, local liquid equivalents and snow totals are going to be driven largely by intense mesoscale effects, which aren't always possible to forecast and will cause actual amounts to vary quite a bit from one station to the next. The high-res WRF definitely illustrates the type of stuff we're going to be dealing with tomorrow, including convectively enhanced snow banding, incredible frontogenesis and isentropic lift, and a beautiful deformation zone. Watching that model run wrap convection (and some fairly strong stuff at that) in around the WCB is stunning to behold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Euro coming in wetter at ORD with 1.70" liquid through 18z wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 List of ECMWF QPF coming soon... Please add KMOP to your list, and thanks a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 DVN at 1.35" liquid this run will let Chi Storm do the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 List of ECMWF QPF coming soon... Thanks for the detailed info btw from all the past Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 An inch of snow in the past hour at Cleveland. METAR KCLE 010551Z 04007KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV006 M08/M09 A3014 RMK AO2 SLP219 SNINCR 1/5 P0003 60003 931006 4/005 T10781094 11072 21083 56020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 EURO has about .45 qpf here and 1.19 in mke. What a graident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What happened that brought the QPF for SEMI below 1.00 to .90 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Franklin is a sheet of ice. Looks like Terre Haute has been hit the hardest with 14,000 out of power already. I'd post in the obs thread but it does not included Indiana http://www.duke-energy.com/indiana/outages/current.asp#outagemap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ThunderSnow12, got the total for RFD? I'm getting beetween 1.25-1.5 on my graphic model, but would like to know exacts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Those meso bands will be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hey Chi-Storm, could you update Euro precip for VPZ too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ThunderSnow12, got the total for RFD? I'm getting beetween 1.25-1.5 on my graphic model, but would like to know exacts.. 1.33" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hey Chi-Storm, could you update Euro precip for VPZ too? I'm curious as to what is shows for KMOP too. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What happened that brought the QPF for SEMI below 1.00 to .90 ? .9 for kptk and kdtw for the main event about .2 for the stuff right now we'll see how the mesoscale features come together i'd still stick with a 11-15 inch forecast for the area banding and thunderstorms running up into the cold air are a wild card in this. I just hope that the dry slot doesn't get up in detroit, living there for 22 years the dry slot usually tends to track a bit further north, but with a secondary forming and occlusion they might avoid the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Verbatim the Euro would equate to over 16" for the QC with conservative 13:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm curious as to what is shows for KMOP too. Thanks! .88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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