stlirish Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 996 in NE ARK. what model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What's your opinion on STL? It's up there right now as prob one of the toughest calls IMO. A lot of the guidance came in colder today, either due to the Low shifting east more or the storm so dynamic that there's going to be quite a bit of cooling once we get on the backside of the low. I live in the city, and my prediction is some ice glaze in the early AM, 2" of Sleet and 10" of Snow....Do you think if the RUC is correct that STL will be in a less favorable position? Thanks ahead of time. Enjoy your thoughts. I personally think its a tough call there... the mid level lows on the E and SE sections of them may be enough to pull in a warm layer aloft, but at the same time their arrival will help to cool the column. My best guess for STL is more impressive totals just W and N of the city proper with a lot of sleet in the city itself...then a quick burst of 6-8" of snow quite possible and some front end icing as you have alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It sure looks like to me with the way the precip is blossoming in the plains we are going to be seeing some decent snow starting right around 10am to noon. That might be a hair faster than expected. Im liking 13-17" for the quad cities. And I think we'll be in the middle to high end of that range. I made my call at work an hour ago, so I might as well share it here too. I'm going 14.5" event total for Moline (which would bump 1/3/99 out of the top 5 snow events by 0.2"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The new RUC. HR 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I made my call at work an hour ago, so I might as well share it here too. I'm going 14.5" event total for Moline (which would bump 1/3/99 out of the top 5 snow events by 0.2"). Well if I had to pin an exact amount on this as a guessing game for the fun of it, I'll say 16.2" event total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The new RUC. HR 18. can you link me to that site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I personally think its a tough call there... the mid level lows on the E and SE sections of them may be enough to pull in a warm layer aloft, but at the same time their arrival will help to cool the column. My best guess for STL is more impressive totals just W and N of the city proper with a lot of sleet in the city itself...then a quick burst of 6-8" of snow quite possible and some front end icing as you have alluded to. Thanks Justin, appreciate your thoughts. FWIW, our local NWS guys are calling for 11-15" (11" City and 15" as you head about 20 miles NNW of City). And 16-20" NW of a Troy to Herman, MO line out towards Columbia. My favorite station guys (Fox2) are calling 8-12" Metro and 12-24" NW of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Gonna be a tough decision for the MKE office regarding my area. Right now we are under a blizzard watch, one county to west is winter storm watch. Calling for 4-7 or so here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If we're gonna guess exact amounts then I'll go with 9.5" here in Norman, with some drifts over 2'. For my hometown of Lake Orion, MI I will go with 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 can you link me to that site? It's on NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What's your opinion on STL? It's up there right now as prob one of the toughest calls IMO. A lot of the guidance came in colder today, either due to the Low shifting east more or the storm so dynamic that there's going to be quite a bit of cooling once we get on the backside of the low. I live in the city, and my prediction is some ice glaze in the early AM, 2" of Sleet and 10" of Snow....Do you think if the RUC is correct that STL will be in a less favorable position? Thanks ahead of time. Enjoy your thoughts. If this tracks W--there will indeed be more glazing with a more robust warm layer and less sleet. Watch the track and trends as if this thing intensifies faster than the NCEP NAM/GFS ops have it will track well west of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Latest RUC goes crazy with the low and has much stronger wind fields across the entire plains by tomorrow than either the NAM/GFS. I feel more confident as this unfolds those pieces of guidance will likely be wrong. Curious to know your thoughts on how far W the major (8"+) accumulations will go in KS and OK given the trends in the short term modeling tonight? I made a call earlier today of 8-10" in KICT with 14-20" on either side of the KS/MO and MO/OK borders and I am still a little leary of that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 And cyclone I think 15-18" for you very likely. I've been pretty conservative with 10-15", but seeing the new RUC and others verify better with what's going on I may be a bit too low. If the RUC scenario actually pans out the QC would have a great chance at setting a new all-time storm total record of over 18". Needless to say I don't think I'll be able to make it to work Wednesday morning lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Look at this thermal gradient in Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well if I had to pin an exact amount on this as a guessing game for the fun of it, I'll say 16.2" event total. would be curious to here your thoughts as well as any other met (baro, Ocean, etc) for here. I'm too lazy and tired to do a forecast discussion for my blog right now so going to get up at 8am and hopefully knock one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 EURO has a handle on the strength so far. HR 6 has a sub 1004 low down in S. Texas. Looks almost exact imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I've been pretty conservative with 10-15", but seeing the new RUC and others verify better with what's going on I may be a bit too low. If the RUC scenario actually pans out the QC would have a great chance at setting a new all-time storm total record of over 18". Needless to say I don't think I'll be able to make it to work Wednesday morning lol. I hear ya, my drive home from work tomorrow evening looks downright awful, as for Wednesday...I expect a lot of shut down roads/interstates...and likely having police telling people to stay off the roads or get a ticket. They usually do that in really bad storms...they only want plows and emergency vehicles on the roads, thats it. I heard a lot of pessimistic people today at the store...its unreal. The storms is knocking on the doorstep and people aren't heeding the warnings or blowing it off. Hope they don't get stranded because they won't get rescued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 would be curious to here your thoughts as well as any other met (baro, Ocean, etc) for here. I'm too lazy and tired to do a forecast discussion for my blog right now so going to get up at 8am and hopefully knock one out. I'm still liking the COU-UIN-PIA-IKK line for 20" or more. I would say close to 17" for you right now, which isn't too shabby either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ECMWF... 12hrs: 1004mb SLP in E. Texas. Heavy precip in TX/OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The Euro is rolling. It will have a huge advantage with its 4DVAR data assimilation system here and the rapidly changing obs down in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This has updated - for those interested http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ Typically does a reasonably good job. It's never right on, but it will be good to look at again tomorrow at the 12Z run. Definitely some awesome dynamics setting up for tomorrow evening. No MSLP map on that one, but 2m temps can give a pretty good indication of where it's going with the low (west). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ECMWF... 12hrs: 1004mb SLP in E. Texas. Heavy precip in TX/OK. 18hrs: 1004mb SLP in E. Arkansas. Nice hit from OKC to KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Gonna be a tough decision for the MKE office regarding my area. Right now we are under a blizzard watch, one county to west is winter storm watch. Calling for 4-7 or so here. I have to believe the gradient will be more than sufficient up there to produce strong winds and reduced visibility. Therefore, I see them hoisting the blizzard warnings for you, honestly. Four or five inches of snow itself may not be impressive, but add in the wind and its effects with dry, powdery snow and it will be a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18hrs: 1004mb SLP in E. Arkansas. Nice hit from OKC to KC. Sounds like it's a shade east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18hrs: 1004mb SLP in E. Arkansas. Nice hit from OKC to KC. 24hrs: 1000mb SLP centered in the IL/KY/TN/AR/MO border area. Nice hit from TUL to DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This has updated - for those interested http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ can see the tunderstorms trying to curl back into the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sounds like it's a shade east. A bit... SLP is a bit weaker too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 999 over the boot heel of MO at 24--a tad W of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 would be curious to here your thoughts as well as any other met (baro, Ocean, etc) for here. I'm too lazy and tired to do a forecast discussion for my blog right now so going to get up at 8am and hopefully knock one out. I still think things look pretty good up there, don't see a dry slot ever making it there, enough QPF, some lake enhancement, good dynamics, I mean everything is in place for you guys to make out quite well. Chicago, almost area wide, should be in a zone of 16-19" with a few spots I'd imagine cracking 20" I don't really want to go higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ECMWF... 12hrs: 1004mb SLP in E. Texas. Heavy precip in TX/OK. Hey can you link me to the site you get the 24hr RUC from? The NCEP one goes to 18hr I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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