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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 8


Hoosier

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Just as I suspected, so no surprise here.

And of course they're not going to cancel the Blizzard Warnings halfway through the event, that's silly. Although I still think those regions will see Blizzard Conditions at times.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

000

FXUS63 KGRR 012035

AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI

335 PM EST TUE FEB 01 2011

LATEST UPDATE...ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT AVIATION...

WILL ADD THE REST OF THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES INTO THE BLIZZARD

WARNING. THE CONCERN THERE IS THAT ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE

NORTH...AFTER ABOUT 10Z WED...THE FETCH OFF THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN

GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN

HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ALONG WITH THIS WIND ANOTHER 2-5 INCHES OF

SNOW WILL FALL FROM 10-18Z IN THIS AREA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE

WORST CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 10Z...WE WILL KEEP THE

START OF THE WARNING AS IT IS NOW...8 PM TONIGHT.

A FEW ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY SLOT

RELATED. THIS WILL LOWER ACCUMS SLIGHTLY IN THE SE CWA AND MAY

BRING A PERIOD OF SLEET TO THIS AREA. BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE

MAINTAINED HERE...BUT STORM TOTAL ACCUMS WILL BE LOWER SLIGHTLY TO

AROUND 10 INCHES. THE DRY SLOT IS CURRENTLY MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL

IL AND SHOULD TRACK INTO THE FAR SE CWA...CLIPPING KALAMAZOO...

CALHOUN AND JACKSON COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY INGHAM COUNTY. WITH

THE DRY SLOT COULD COME SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND THEREFORE THE

MENTION OF SLEET AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ACCUMS.

THE DRY SLOT ADJUSTMENT ALSO RESULTS IN SHIFTING THE HIGHEST SNOW

ACCUMULATION AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. I NOW HAVE THE 12 INCH PLUS

ACCUMS AXIS EXTENDING ABOUT TWO COUNTIES WIDE FROM ROUGHLY SAUGATUCK

TO ST. JOHNS. ONE TO TWO INCH SNOWFALL RATES PER HOUR APPEAR LIKELY

IN THIS AXIS FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING.

ACCUMS WERE ALSO BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...TO 5

TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS THE DEFORMATION

ZONE IS LIKELY TO SIT OVER THIS AREA WED MORNING.

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BLIZZARD WARNING FOR:

=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON

=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX

=NEW= OXFORD - BRANT

=NEW= ST. CATHARINES - GRIMSBY - NORTHERN NIAGARA REGION

=NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE MAJOR STORM WHICH WAS BORN IN TEXAS LATE MONDAY IS

APPROACHING SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXPANSIVE SWATH

OF WINTERY PRECIPITATION. HEAVY SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN

SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEAST

TO THE GOLDEN HORSESHOE AROUND MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD TOTAL

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 20 TO 30 CM ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE SNOW

BEGINS TO LIGHTEN UP WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS

ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HAMILTON TO ST. CATHARINES CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION, STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF 40 GUSTING TO 60 OR 70

KM/H WILL ACCOMPANY THE SNOW, CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

NOTE THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA FOR ONTARIO WAS

CHANGED JUNE 2010 TO REMOVE COLD WIND CHILL REQUIREMENTS. THE

NEW CRITERIA REQUIRES A VISIBILITY OF 400 METRES OR LESS IN

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACCOMPANIED BY SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF

40 KM/H FOR AT LEAST FOUR HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN MORE

BLIZZARD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED IN THE FUTURE.

THIS IS THE FIRST WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN

ONTARIO SINCE MARCH 1993, DURING THE 'STORM OF THE CENTURY'.

THIS IS A WARNING THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR

OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS. MONITOR WEATHER

CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.

:o

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just thought yall should know i was just listening to the scott van pelt show and he said he knows what the nam gfs and euro are and he mentioned qpf and he admits he follows weather i thought that was pretty awesome

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