Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 8


Hoosier

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Snow coming down steady in Peoria, smaller flakes and the wind isn't bad in town. I imagine outside of town there are blizzard like conditions already. I made home from work from Morton and there was maybe a 1/4 mile visibility at best. Road conditions were deteriorating quickly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Say it isn't so. :arrowhead:

It'll still be awesome for 6-10 hours with main surge of moisture ahead of the occluded front, but it'll cutoff pretty quickly around 10-11am I think. Not even sure the better wrap around snows will make it in here during the afternoon. The vast majority of our snowfall will probably come with the first batch.

At least that's what the newest round of guidance says. Still have to watch and see how things unfold but based on how things are developing upstream, I think the wrapped up/north/dryslot scenario is very likely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even the EURO now is showing a large and aggressive dry slot on the east side of the ul low. No getting around it. I'm knocking my imby numbers back to 6-10". Friends in SE MI might have to consider doing the same.

I already did.

I honestly don't understand what everyone else sees that makes them so optimistic about 12"+ amounts on this side of the storm, at least on a widespread basis. Even widespread 10"+ amounts with time is looking less likely.

However, I am liking the chances for thundersnow, but that won't really make a diffrence with the forecasted amonts if the convective cores are transient (and they will be).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Have you seen any actual ice accumulation forecast maps? Wondering who will end up with the highest ice damage. Appears St Louis will be spared. More sleet or snow there.

I have not yet. Here is the recent near term update from Indy regarding the icing, and reasons for going to ice warning. Also an MD was released regarding .25 every 3 hours.

NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/

SATELLITE AND MODELS AGREE ON MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING

INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BETWEEN 19 AND 21 UTC. RADAR HAS THE LEADING

EDGE NEAR THE WABASH RIVER AND THE AREA IS EXPANDING AS EXPECTED.

SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SHOULD MOVE TO SOUTHERN

ILLINOIS BY 00Z. THIS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE

AREA. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE

BLENDED PRODUCT. VALUES ARE 200% OF NORMAL WHICH MAY LEAD TO

HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONVECTION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH

THIS DYNAMIC OF A STORM. USED RUC AND HRRR MODELS FOR SURFACE

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN TIER OF

COUNTIES MAY HAVE JUST RAIN BY 00Z

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Have you seen any actual ice accumulation forecast maps? Wondering who will end up with the highest ice damage. Appears St Louis will be spared. More sleet or snow there.

Beau,

Looks like the heaviest will be along the I-70 corridor, right through downtown Indianapolis. But already seeing reports of trees coming down in Morgan county.. Calling for rates of up to 1" with locally higher amounts..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

IND really looks to be in a bad spot, round two is about to commence there 0.4" ice already w/limbs coming down. With a forecast of 0.5-0.9" additional ice w/wind gusts up to 35-40 mph. Absolutely brutal combination. Won't take long after the second batch arrives to start seeing major problems in that area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Beau,

Looks like the heaviest will be along the I-70 corridor, right through downtown Indianapolis. But already seeing reports of trees coming down in Morgan county.. Calling for rates of up to 1" with locally higher amounts..

Hang tight man, and that goes to all down around Indy and elsewhere in this ice storm. KIND's use of catastrophic from yesterday may be becoming realized. :(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This will be catastrophic if ice goes over an inch - the forecast doesn't sound good. Will be curious what 1-2 wide county area ends up with the highest damage.

Snowing here now - can't believe how strong the winds are already. Impressed - we are in a fairly open area.

Icing in Flora and Olney along the Route 50 corridor. Temps 20 miles to our south at 34, going to be really close for a lot of us down in this area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...