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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 8


Hoosier

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Hope you can stay mostly snow manSnowman.gif.. Sleet is the worst precip type there is.. Nothing cool about it.. Doesn't look cool like ice/snow and hurts like hell when it falls...

Thanks. But snow is a dream right now. Could be a pretty epic sleet storm for us though...so I guess that's something. :lol:

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New Disco has some nice nuggets..

GORGEOUS/CLASSIC MID LATITUDE CYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE

SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH BLOSSOMING (PARDON THE PUN)

BAROCLINIC LEAF ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. RAPIDLY EXPANDING WARM

CONVEYOR BELT WITH REGIONAL WSR-88D MOSAIC SHOWING LARGE AREA OF

MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS

SPREADING FROM OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI EARLY

THIS MORNING. AS CYCLONE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY LOOK FOR CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THE

MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT TO

BEGIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY AS EARLY AS

LATE MORNING...AND UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED EARLIER ARRIVAL TIMES OF THE SNOWFALL...HAVE

ADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO 11 AM SOUTHERN

COUNTIES TO BETTER COINCIDE WITH THE EXPECTED DETERIORATING

CONDITIONS.

PART ONE (ASSUMING THE PIDDLY SNOW WE SAW OVERNIGHT WAS PART ZERO)

OF THE STORM SHOULD BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY INTENSE WARM AIR

ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY AT

TIMES WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO HAVE ACCUMULATED

ALREADY BY MID EVENING. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE A BIT

OF A WANING IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL FOR A TIME THIS

EVENING BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP BIG TIME LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT

WHEN PART TWO STARTS.

PART TWO OF THE STORM WILL BE WITH INTENSIFYING TROWAL/DEFORMATION

ZONE TONIGHT. UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE ALMOST

OFF THE CHARTS TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO A

NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED/COMPACT MID LEVEL LOW AS IT LIFTS

NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY

MORNING. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT VERY INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL

DEVELOP WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND WITH TREMENDOUSLY STRONG UPPER

LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE

(NEARING 8C/KM) ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL

PROVIDE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO

DEVELOP WITHIN THE TROWAL...LEADING TO LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL

TOTALS. IN FACT...SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCAPES OF 100-200

J/KG WILL DEVELOP WHICH MEANS WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE UPRIGHT

CONVECTION DEVELOP.

WITH 500MB/700MB LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NEAR UIN TO AROUND GYYAM QUITE CONCERNED THAT MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION COULD RAP INTO THESOUTHEASTERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE CWA...CUTTING SNOWFALL OFF BYOVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A CHANGE TO SLEET POSSIBLE BEFORE FLOPPINGOVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS GOING TO HAVE TO BE MORE OF ANOWCAST ISSUE AND ONLY CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCESLEET INTO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

thats the same as the 4am one, not a new discussion.

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Thanks for the photos jhamps...Can't believe what it looks like from the first round from those shots with round two yet to come. Hang on!

yeah it's knocking on our doorstep now here in Charleston, should know in a matter of moments if it's sleet or freezing rain... crossing my fingers it's not freezing rain....

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looks like leading edge should be in here within a couple hours and not really let up until tomorrow morning. Looks like 8 pm until 3 am or so should be pretty wild. Riding my 23.1” upgraded call from this morning. Will start uploading pics and such once conditions deteriorate.

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mcd0068.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1142 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/E-CNTRL MO...CNTRL IL...CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 011742Z - 012245Z

MODERATE TO HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND EWD ACROSS

PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH

22Z. SIGNIFICANT ICING...WITH FREEZING RAIN RATES AOA 0.25 INCH PER

3 HOURS...WILL BE A CONCERN IN THE SRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION

AREA...WITH SLEET EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.

A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MATURE OVER THE CNTRL

CONUS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED/INTENSE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN THE ERN

SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. THE 15Z RUN OF THE RUC INDICATES A SLY

850-MB JET MAX WITH CORE WINDS OF 70 KT OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER

OH VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTING STRONG NWD TRANSPORT OF

DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...WITH AMSU/SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER

PRODUCT INDICATING AN INFLUX OF PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES NOSING

INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH

THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RISING ATOP THE COLD AIR MASS ENTRENCHED

ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL BE AUGMENTED BY INTENSE

UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM A COUPLED JET STREAK

STRUCTURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO A

NEAR-SURFACE SUB-FREEZING LAYER AT LEAST 60 STATUTE MILES NORTH OF

THE OH RIVER...MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE EXPECTED THIS

AFTERNOON.

ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARMING

WILL BE STRONGEST...TEMPERATURES AOA 3C IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER

WILL SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS. FREEZING RAIN IS

ANTICIPATED IN THIS REGION...AS THE PRECIPITATION INTERACTS WITH

SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPS. HEAVY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS

THE 12Z NAM MODEL INDICATES UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ENTERING THE REGION

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THE ASSOCIATED

CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...POTENTIALLY ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTNING...WILL

ALLOW LIQUID-EQUIVALENT TO EXCEED 0.25 INCH PER 3 HOURS PER THE HRRR

MODEL. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ICING.

ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE

ELEVATED WARM LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 3C...ALLOWING ONLY

PARTIAL HYDROMETEOR MELTING...WITH MAINLY SLEET EXPECTED. THE NAM

MODEL INDICATES SLANTWISE INSTABILITY SPREADING E/NEWD ACROSS THIS

REGION...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING AND LOCALLY

HEAVY SLEET RATES.

..COHEN/ROGERS.. 02/01/2011

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

SGF...

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Well isht is starting to hit the fan here...as this puppy is getting underway for LAF. Ping, ping, stray flake, ping, ping...

Seems like we've tracking this thing for a month. :arrowhead:

Good luck to those in the snow zone. May your wildest dreams come true. :thumbsup:

And to those in the ice zone, stay safe and let's hope for the best. :)

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Even the EURO now is showing a large and aggressive dry slot on the east side of the ul low. No getting around it. I'm knocking my imby numbers back to 6-10". Friends in SE MI might have to consider doing the same.

Snowing like crazy in Peoria, 15-20 mph winds. Not quite white out, but getting there.

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