Indystorm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thanks for the photos jhamps. and Brandon.....Can't believe what it looks like from the first round from those shots with round two yet to come. Hang on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Area of 40dbz returns aimed right @ LAF. Tell us what it does sn/pl mix, but probably 90% pl. Bigger flakes that were mixing in earlier are small now. WAA FTL. It was posted earlier, but the NIU radar seems to be a good guide of p-types right now. http://weather2.admin.niu.edu/niuil.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Snow looks to begin here within the next 30 mins to an hour. Let the games begin. ...Until we get the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hope you can stay mostly snow man.. Sleet is the worst precip type there is.. Nothing cool about it.. Doesn't look cool like ice/snow and hurts like hell when it falls... Thanks. But snow is a dream right now. Could be a pretty epic sleet storm for us though...so I guess that's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 MSN: 0.73" MKE: 1.22" FLD: 0.48" DVN: 1.28" PIA: 1.34" STL: 1.02" ORD: 1.28" LAF: 0.83" IND: 0.83" GRR: 0.88" MOP: 0.83" DTW: 0.86" YYZ: 0.72" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Chicago storm- Does Euro show ANY precip this far north??? 0.08" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Congrats to some of you guys. I am sunny and 5 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Awesome little frontogenesis and lake moisture enhanced band keeping things saturated for that first big band marching up I-39. Lake moisture component is obviously going to be important for locations up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 New Disco has some nice nuggets.. GORGEOUS/CLASSIC MID LATITUDE CYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH BLOSSOMING (PARDON THE PUN) BAROCLINIC LEAF ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. RAPIDLY EXPANDING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITH REGIONAL WSR-88D MOSAIC SHOWING LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. AS CYCLONE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY LOOK FOR CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING...AND UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE EXPECTED EARLIER ARRIVAL TIMES OF THE SNOWFALL...HAVE ADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO 11 AM SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO BETTER COINCIDE WITH THE EXPECTED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. PART ONE (ASSUMING THE PIDDLY SNOW WE SAW OVERNIGHT WAS PART ZERO) OF THE STORM SHOULD BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY INTENSE WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO HAVE ACCUMULATED ALREADY BY MID EVENING. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE A BIT OF A WANING IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL FOR A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP BIG TIME LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WHEN PART TWO STARTS. PART TWO OF THE STORM WILL BE WITH INTENSIFYING TROWAL/DEFORMATION ZONE TONIGHT. UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE ALMOST OFF THE CHARTS TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED/COMPACT MID LEVEL LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT VERY INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND WITH TREMENDOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE (NEARING 8C/KM) ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE TROWAL...LEADING TO LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL TOTALS. IN FACT...SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCAPES OF 100-200 J/KG WILL DEVELOP WHICH MEANS WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE UPRIGHT CONVECTION DEVELOP. WITH 500MB/700MB LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NEAR UIN TO AROUND GYYAM QUITE CONCERNED THAT MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION COULD RAP INTO THESOUTHEASTERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE CWA...CUTTING SNOWFALL OFF BYOVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A CHANGE TO SLEET POSSIBLE BEFORE FLOPPINGOVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS GOING TO HAVE TO BE MORE OF ANOWCAST ISSUE AND ONLY CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCESLEET INTO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. thats the same as the 4am one, not a new discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 MSN: 0.73" MKE: 1.22" FLD: 0.48" DVN: 1.28" PIA: 1.34" STL: 1.02" ORD: 1.28" LAF: 0.83" IND: 0.83" GRR: 0.88" MOP: 0.83" DTW: 0.86" YYZ: 0.72" Wow, just can't stop the bleeding. Oh well, it's nowcasting time anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nice temp gradient setting up from EVV northeast to IND in Indiana. 1PM temps EVV: 38º IND: 21º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 TS, can you post the HRRR for hrs 12, 13, and maybe 14? Wanna see how far north the heavier returns gets. Hard to tell on the maps I am looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 MSN: 0.73" MKE: 1.22" FLD: 0.48" DVN: 1.28" PIA: 1.34" STL: 1.02" ORD: 1.28" LAF: 0.83" IND: 0.83" GRR: 0.88" MOP: 0.83" DTW: 0.86" YYZ: 0.72" VPZ: 0.98" RFD: 1.10" DKB: 1.22" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWIAWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 How much precip for DSM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thanks for the photos jhamps...Can't believe what it looks like from the first round from those shots with round two yet to come. Hang on! yeah it's knocking on our doorstep now here in Charleston, should know in a matter of moments if it's sleet or freezing rain... crossing my fingers it's not freezing rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichMedic Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Light freezing rain again falling here. Here are some pictures from last night's event: How much did you end up with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Official snowfall at OKC Will Rogers Airport, 12". Today is only the 3rd calendar day since 1894 of 10"+ of snow. Measurements from my house and pics will be coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Awesome little frontogenesis and lake moisture enhanced band keeping things saturated for that first big band marching up I-39. Lake moisture component is obviously going to be important for locations up here. this is going to get nasty over the next few hours for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 holy smokes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 thats the same as the 4am one, not a new discussion. Damn, sorry about that.. Deleted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 How much precip for DSM? 0.70" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 We repositioned to La Salle/Peru, Illinois - winds here are in the 20s and gusting into the 30s. Going to be a lot of blowing snow at this location Good man! Should be a very great location on the prairie and good luck with your media reports. Keep us posted too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Even the EURO now is showing a large and aggressive dry slot on the east side of the ul low. No getting around it. I'm knocking my imby numbers back to 6-10". Friends in SE MI might have to consider doing the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 looks like leading edge should be in here within a couple hours and not really let up until tomorrow morning. Looks like 8 pm until 3 am or so should be pretty wild. Riding my 23.1” upgraded call from this morning. Will start uploading pics and such once conditions deteriorate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/E-CNTRL MO...CNTRL IL...CNTRL IND CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 011742Z - 012245Z MODERATE TO HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH 22Z. SIGNIFICANT ICING...WITH FREEZING RAIN RATES AOA 0.25 INCH PER 3 HOURS...WILL BE A CONCERN IN THE SRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH SLEET EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH. A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MATURE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED/INTENSE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. THE 15Z RUN OF THE RUC INDICATES A SLY 850-MB JET MAX WITH CORE WINDS OF 70 KT OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTING STRONG NWD TRANSPORT OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...WITH AMSU/SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATING AN INFLUX OF PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES NOSING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RISING ATOP THE COLD AIR MASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL BE AUGMENTED BY INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM A COUPLED JET STREAK STRUCTURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO A NEAR-SURFACE SUB-FREEZING LAYER AT LEAST 60 STATUTE MILES NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARMING WILL BE STRONGEST...TEMPERATURES AOA 3C IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS. FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED IN THIS REGION...AS THE PRECIPITATION INTERACTS WITH SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPS. HEAVY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS THE 12Z NAM MODEL INDICATES UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ENTERING THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...POTENTIALLY ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTNING...WILL ALLOW LIQUID-EQUIVALENT TO EXCEED 0.25 INCH PER 3 HOURS PER THE HRRR MODEL. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ICING. ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 3C...ALLOWING ONLY PARTIAL HYDROMETEOR MELTING...WITH MAINLY SLEET EXPECTED. THE NAM MODEL INDICATES SLANTWISE INSTABILITY SPREADING E/NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING AND LOCALLY HEAVY SLEET RATES. ..COHEN/ROGERS.. 02/01/2011 ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... SGF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Even the EURO now is showing a large and aggressive dry slot on the east side of the ul low. No getting around it. I'm knocking my imby numbers back to 6-10". Friends in SE MI might have to consider doing the same. Say it isn't so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well isht is starting to hit the fan here...as this puppy is getting underway for LAF. Ping, ping, stray flake, ping, ping... Seems like we've tracking this thing for a month. Good luck to those in the snow zone. May your wildest dreams come true. And to those in the ice zone, stay safe and let's hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 How come there's no precipitation falling now. With all of this Gulf moisture streaming northward and overrunning the cold air, you'd think there'd be a band of precipitation across Indiana and Ohio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannister80 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Even the EURO now is showing a large and aggressive dry slot on the east side of the ul low. No getting around it. I'm knocking my imby numbers back to 6-10". Friends in SE MI might have to consider doing the same. Snowing like crazy in Peoria, 15-20 mph winds. Not quite white out, but getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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