Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 New and final call for LAF: 2-4" snow (liking the lower end at this point) 1-2" sleet .25" or less glaze 1-2" of snow 1.00"+ of sleet 0.15" or less of glaze Final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 TS, that's the old hrrr from a hr ago. New one has the heaviest bands even a bit farther north in Wisconsin. looks identical just an hour later hence more returns north http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/from_jet/hrrr/full/2011020115/cref_sfc_f15.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 12z NMM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 12z NMM: nw of the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Little bit of sleet mixing in with the freezing rain here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 12z ARW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That dry slot will hurt, and it will hurt bad. Probably can slim our totals down 4-6", more if we get sleet. I'm going to go for 6-10" of snow here in DeMotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 RUC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 There are going to be many lollis of 30+ with 1.75+ qpf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 hi-res agreement on 1.75+ all snow is mindblowing this close to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 hi-res agreement on 1.75+ all snow is mindblowing this close to an event. And likely overdone. Hi-res models have a pretty high bias for heavy precip amounts....just keep that in mind. Look at the hi-res guidance for structure/potential, not QPF amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 And likely overdone. Hi-res models have a pretty high bias for heavy precip amounts....just keep that in mind. Look at the hi-res guidance for structure/potential, not QPF amounts. Yeah, that 1.3 to 1.5 range for ORD that we've been talking about over the past couple of days is looking pretty good still. Could certainly get some spots with more than that, but nigh impossible to tell exactly where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 And likely overdone. Hi-res models have a pretty high bias for heavy precip amounts....just keep that in mind. Look at the hi-res guidance for structure/potential, not QPF amounts. figured as much, chop off a half inch and my call is still looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Light freezing rain again falling here. Here are some pictures from last night's event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looking like MKE could be in a good spot... Going to be fun to watch. I hope MSN can get a good chunk of the white stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 And likely overdone. Hi-res models have a pretty high bias for heavy precip amounts....just keep that in mind. Look at the hi-res guidance for structure/potential, not QPF amounts. Except the mesoscale models have been largely in agreement for the past several DAYS of the potential for 1.2-1.5"+ QPF values. In some cases, the mesoscale models have predicted higher QPF totals than the hi-res models have over the past 24-48 hours. The juice is there, some areas WILL see 1.5"+ total liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah, that 1.3 to 1.5 range for ORD that we've been talking about over the past couple of days is looking pretty good still. Could certainly get some spots with more than that, but nigh impossible to tell exactly where. look at these vectors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 PImp- Better put on a set of chains1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nice returns on LOT's southern FA. Not sure if it's hitting the ground right away, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Issues on the south side of the Indy metro area.. 1230 PM ICE STORM PARAGON 39.39N 86.56W 02/01/2011 MORGAN IN FIRE DEPT/RESCUE TREES ALREADY COMING DOWN ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF THE ICE. EMERGENCY CREWS HAVING DIFFICULT TIME KEEPING UP. 1235 PM FREEZING RAIN 1 E BROOKLYN 39.54N 86.35W 02/01/2011 M0.25 INCH MORGAN IN NWS EMPLOYEE SOME SURFACES HAVE AS MUCH AS 3/8 INCH ICE ACCRUAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Issues on the south side of the Indy metro area.. 1230 PM ICE STORM PARAGON 39.39N 86.56W 02/01/2011 MORGAN IN FIRE DEPT/RESCUE TREES ALREADY COMING DOWN ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF THE ICE. EMERGENCY CREWS HAVING DIFFICULT TIME KEEPING UP. 1235 PM FREEZING RAIN 1 E BROOKLYN 39.54N 86.35W 02/01/2011 M0.25 INCH MORGAN IN NWS EMPLOYEE SOME SURFACES HAVE AS MUCH AS 3/8 INCH ICE ACCRUAL. Going to be a long night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Light freezing rain again falling here. Here are some pictures from last night's event: Stay safe Brandon. I hope all goes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nice returns on LOT's southern FA. Not sure if it's hitting the ground right away, though. i doubt there's any virga with the persistent NE fetch we've had light snow all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I heard from a friend that Lake Shore Drive will be shut down later this afternoon. Can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i doubt there's any virga with the persistent NE fetch we've had light snow all morning. Amounting to much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTZILLINOIS Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 figured as much, chop off a half inch and my call is still looking good. It's obvious that northern and western IL are going to get a boatload of snow. I am, however, right along the line between the heavy snow and sleet/ice. Given what all of you know (which is much more than me), what is your prediction for Macon County, in central Illinois (between Spfld and Champaign)? To me it looks like we're getting mostly sleet/ice, but they keep saying we're going to get 8-12 inches of snow. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Except the mesoscale models have been largely in agreement for the past several DAYS of the potential for 1.2-1.5"+ QPF values. In some cases, the mesoscale models have predicted higher QPF totals than the hi-res models have over the past 24-48 hours. The juice is there, some areas WILL see 1.5"+ total liquid. It's possible...and at least you use the word potential. I'm just making the point that in general, numerical models (even global) tend to have a pretty nasty high bias for heavy/high threshold precip. events [verification stats bear this out]. Some areas will get dumped on more than others, but the models tend to under-do the spatial variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 KBMI 011725Z 05020KT 1/4SM R29/2200V3000FT +SN SCT001 OVC009 M09/M10 Heard 3 vehicle in ditch reports in the last 5 minutes in that area. Now I feel vindicated that I didn't go in today. Snow started here in Eureka around 11AM. Already a dusting and wind is swirling it off the nearby roofs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Amounting to much? Nothing crazy, the returns have been better just north. And they had thundersnow in MKE with the lake band. Either way, we're pretty well saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nice returns on LOT's southern FA. Not sure if it's hitting the ground right away, though. According to JanetJanet a few pages back there was no virga when her snow started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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