A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 nothing like a thundersnow pre-storm appetizer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 700mb frontogenesis forcing a band of light snow ahead of the main system, could also have helped out that thundersnow-squall that was reported there, Aleking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Here....we.....go..... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1036 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...SRN IA...WRN IL CONCERNING...BLIZZARD VALID 011636Z - 012230Z SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND N/EWD AHEAD OF AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PIVOTING TOWARDS THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE TO 2-3 IN/HR ACROSS NRN MO...AND INTO WRN IL AFTER 20Z. STRENGTHENING N-NWLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE A NEWD SHIFT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BANDS INTO NRN MO AND WRN IL. THIS WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DCVA AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL OK. SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT WRAPPING AROUND APPROACHING CYCLONE /WITH 40-50 KTS OF FLOW IN 285-295 K LAYER/ WILL ACT TO ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FOCUSED MESOSCALE BANDING /WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT FROM SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLANTWISE INSTABILITY/ WILL BE SUPPORTED BY LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENETIC MAXIMUM SHIFTING INTO NRN MO. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 IN/HR ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MO...SPREADING INTO WRN IL AFTER 20Z. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDS. ACROSS SRN IA...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 IN/HR. ..ROGERS.. 02/01/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I've been very confident the last few days that the cold conveyor was going to over-perform for eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The ensembles were very consistent in showing that -5 sigma anomaly, in strength and location. Nice to see the meso models really hammering this idea now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 it confuses me too ideally, what id like to see is a stronger storm but with a similar location of occlusion. i dont want this to blow its load too far S and W. i guess we will just have to see what happens and follow the great play by play by the mets here.. Generally speaking the heavy snow bands tend to weaken after it is fully occluded and before triple point cyclogenesis gets underway. So there will be a "lull" (lull here being an extremely relative term) before the next one cranks up. You're still looking at a beautiful deformation band either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 qpf actually much improved on the NAM over its 6z, so not the disaster I was fearing. Damn computer models and knowledge of whats going on in other areas, dont want that to get in the way of appreciating what will be an awesome storm. To ME, this is actually reminding me of having potential to be like the blizzard of '78. We started then with a good half foot of snow on the ground before the first flakes fell (the same as now), we had a tremendous blizzard but "only" got 10" as areas to the west got way more. With the drifts and stuff the general public certainly didnt feel gypped lol, and if that happens again, hope I dont either. BTW thanks baro for the input, I was just so clueless about occlusion lol. excellent point man, excellet point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 So let's say Peoria gets the brunt of the dryslot...what kind of total reduction are we looking at? Looking for a worst-case scenario so I don't get my hopes destroyed. Also, what are the chances of getting massive dryslot in Peoria? 30% at this point? i'm not sure we even do..and even if we do the front side may be even more snowy then they thought....and with the back end becuase of the dry slot less they may cancel each other out... wherever that pivit point is is critical..the hevaiest snows will likley be just north and northwest of that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I've been very confident the last few days that the cold conveyor was going to over-perform for eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The ensembles were very consistent in showing that -5 sigma anomaly, in strength and location. Nice to see the meso models really hammering this idea now. Yeah you had been discussing that a while. The SREF WRF-ARW/NMM get kudos. They performed well--NAM/GFS did not except that 0Z GFS run a couple days ago. Too bad it backed way off with each run since. It would have been more right than the latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 700mb frontogenesis forcing a band of light snow ahead of the main system, could also have helped out that thundersnow-squall that was reported there, Aleking. thanks, i can only imagine what will happen later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0855 AM HEAVY SNOW MIAMI 36.87N 94.88W 02/01/2011 M13.0 INCH OTTAWA OK EMERGENCY MNGR SNOWED 5 INCHES IN PAST 90 MINUTES. awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 WRF-NMM is out and gives MKE and Chicago 1.5 QPF+ it looks like. I'm good with .5-.75 qpf, with good ratios should be a solid 8-10 inches with crazy wind. Would bring my total to 14-16 inches combined for the 2 events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 WRF-NMM is out and gives MKE and Chicago 1.5 QPF+ it looks like. I'm good with .5-.75 qpf, with good ratios should be a solid 8-10 inches with crazy wind. Would bring my total to 14-16 inches combined for the 2 events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 As I look at current radar and HRRR progs I am growing increasingly concerned about stronger WAA up this way in Michiana than previously thought. I know I am under a blizzard warning for 12-18 inches in my locale but the trends seem to indicate that sleet/fzra may be farther north in Indiana than originally expected or a much wider band of fzra than initially thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Chistorm, make a call and if you have already, what was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah i'm pretty stoked, the idea of 20"+ with 60+mph winds is hard to wrap my head around. I'll tell you one thing, i won't be walking out onto the ice like i did yesterday. i was watching WGN this morning and the on-air guy (not Skilling) said 10 foot drifts what in the Sam Hell?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 By tomorrow night some of you will have three feet of fresh powder on a level and you'll be up to Part 769 on this most excellent topic. Enjoy the snow! Shovel some for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Amazing to watch the 4KM WRF clearly generate and wrap in thunderstorms on that simulated reflectivity loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i was watching WGN this morning and the on-air guy (not Skilling) said 10 foot drifts what in the Sam Hell?!?! If we go over 20" I think 10'ers are possible, especially lakeside where it looks like gusts to 60mph are a good bet. I'll have to go in and out a lot to prevent getting snowed in or out of my place while taking pics and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 already gorgeous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Weather history being made today. The Oklahoma Mesonet site at Boise City (in the panhandle) recorded a wind chill of -36 degrees at 9:05 am. That's the coldest in Mesonet history! The Mesonet was founded in 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Amazing to watch the 4KM WRF clearly generate and wrap in thunderstorms on that simulated reflectivity loop. The lift in that deformation band is going to be just awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Amazing to watch the 4KM WRF clearly generate and wrap in thunderstorms on that simulated reflectivity loop. link to new run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Chistorm, make a call and if you have already, what was it? I actually forgot to. 15-25". May see a few lollipops of 25"+ somewhere in Lake/Cook/DuPage/Will Co's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 link to new run? http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I actually forgot to. 15-25". May see a few lollipops of 25"+ somewhere in Lake/Cook/DuPage/Will Co's. good man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 As I look at current radar and HRRR progs I am growing increasingly concerned about stronger WAA up this way in Michiana than previously thought. I know I am under a blizzard warning for 12-18 inches in my locale but the trends seem to indicate that sleet/fzra may be farther north in Indiana than originally expected or a much wider band of fzra than initially thought. I hear your concerns, but honestly think any ip/zr will be relatively short-lived in the Michiana area as the low lifts into Indiana and begins to occlude/stall/transfer. I wouldn't be surprised to see a short window with sleet mixing in here in the Chicago area. I doubt it will have much of a negative impact on totals or the overall storm here, but it may stick around a little longer in your area. You'll still see PLENTY of snow as that trowal pulls through. That thing will be HEALTHY. EDIT - just noticed you're in Elkhart, I was thinking you were west of South Bend. Still, you'll see plenty of snow, but probably a good bit of sleet for awhile as well. That, and you'll probably see the dry slot over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 STL in a dog fight (no offense to dog lovers ) SPECI KSTL 011645Z 02012G18KT 1/2SM R30R/3000V4000FT PLSN FG FEW009 OVC016 M04/M06 A2991 RMK AO2 P0010 METAR KSTL 011651Z 03011G18KT 1/2SM R30R/3000V4000FT PLSN FG FEW009 OVC016 M04/M06 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP136 P0011 T10441061 Columbia MO, ripping...absolutely ripping. SPECI KCOU 011430Z 04012G19KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG BKN005 OVC013 M06/M08 A2997 SPECI KCOU 011439Z 04013G19KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV004 M06/M08 A2998 RMK AO2 P0003 METAR KCOU 011454Z 03017G22KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV003 M07/M08 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP156 P0003 60008 T10671078 56033 $ METAR KCOU 011554Z 02018G23KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV001 M07/M08 A2994 RMK AO2 PK WND 03026/1506 SLP151 P0006 T10671078 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stryker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 some sources are still saying 18-29 inches for Peoria through wednesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 snow has started here no virga before it its windy and is blowing around the 1-2 inches we had yestersay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If we go over 20" I think 10'ers are possible, especially lakeside where it looks like gusts to 60mph are a good bet. I'll have to go in and out a lot to prevent getting snowed in or out of my place while taking pics and such. The ONLY thing I could POSSIBLY complain about is the meat of this storm is coming overnight so the photo opportunities of the blizzard in progress aren't even close to what they could be. But, I'll be out Wednesday with my fancy new camera for sure. Looking at all the models including the most recent HRRR and RUC, the pivot point seems to set up just south of Chicago. In our region, Chicago to Racine or Milwaukee look to be the jackpot. Who am I kidding, the whole region is a winner with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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