Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It has to be a large storm when counties two tiers to my north are under winter weather advisories and their forecast calls for zero new snow. incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stryker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Snow looking to hit Peoria in about an hour, some forecasts just upped from 1-3 in. befor 3 pm to 4-6 in. before 4 pm. Should get interesting quick. I might bail from work in Morton around 12:30 or 1 depending on how the wind is to get home in Peoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tongboy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Interesting discussion... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1024 AM EST TUE FEB 01 2011 VALID FEB 01/1200 UTC THRU FEB 05/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES... NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE ITS SHORT RANGE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY...PREFERENCE FOR A COMPROMISE OF THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN OR 06Z GEFS MEAN THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER/DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF LIES ON THE STRONG/SOUTHWARD/NEGATIVELY TILTED SIDE OF ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IMPACTS ITS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND LEADS TO SLOWER MOVING ENERGY/A SLOWER LOW MOVEMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WHEN COMPARING THE GUIDANCE...THE 00Z ECMWF SENDS MORE OF THIS ENERGY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN STREAM THAN ANY OTHER PIECE OF AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...THE 06Z GFS IS THE QUICKEST/DEEPEST...ALTHOUGH IT HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE 06Z GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. SINCE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CANADA IS BROAD...WILL FAVOR A COMPROMISE OF THE QUICKER 06Z GFS AND EITHER GEFS OR ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IN ORDER TO WEAKEN ITS FEATURE. UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO/SOUTHERN PLAINS...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z ECMWF/12Z NAM COMPROMISE THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED QUICKER/MORE OPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS PER TRENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHEN COMPARING THE GUIDANCE...THE 06Z GFS/00Z UKMET ARE THE QUICKEST IN MOVING THIS SYSTEM EAST TO NORTHEAST. IN THE CASE OF THE GFS...IT IS DUE TO A MORE EASTERN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. IN THE CASE OF THE 00Z UKMET...IT SHOWS THE STRONGEST NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH LIKELY LEADS TO THIS PREMATURE EJECTION. SINCE BOTH THE GFS/UKMET SHOW A QUICK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERLIES...AND THERE IS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...WILL FAVOR THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF/12Z NAM SOLUTIONS HERE...WHICH HAVE THE SUPPORT OF THE 06Z GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. SHORTWAVE MOVING BY MAINE FRIDAY...PREFERENCE FOR THE 00Z CANADIAN THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER/QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS IN FAVOR OF A STRONGER SYSTEM UPSTREAM WHICH IT BRINGS NEAR MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT...A SOLUTION NOT SEEN OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THERE IS A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET LAG THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS CLOSEST TO THE 06Z GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH THIS SYSTEMS PROGRESSION...AND WILL FAVOR ITS SOLUTION CONSIDERING THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. DEEP CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/NORTHEAST...PREFERENCE FOR A NON-00Z UKMET COMPROMISE THE NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH/DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. WHILE THE ECMWF IS ON THE QUICK SIDE OF ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS...IT HAS A LONG WAY TO GO TO CATCH UP TO ITS FAST RUN FROM SEVEN DAYS AGO. WHEN COMPARING THE GUIDANCE...THE 00Z UKMET IS THE SLOWEST IN TRACKING THE MAIN LOW NORTHEASTWARD. ALTHOUGH IT HAS THE SUPPORT OF ABOUT 1/9 OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WITH NO SLOWING TREND SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE...WILL FAVOR A NON-00Z UKMET COMPROMISE WITH THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 latest RUC destroys I88 across northern Illinois 3 miles north of I-88 FTW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Repasting the disco from DVN because it is too epic. They said it better than I. To be honest I'm surprised it took them this long to bite. 24 hours ago they were pretty down on the storm. That may have been due in part to the poor model handling at that time, and a much lower than normal confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Really aggravating, since I can't see the MSLP on there, but the low level winds are suggesting that the HRRR is trying to generate a gravity wave. There's a nice, very strong inversion with a steep lapse rate under that, and an unstable layer aloft, so this looks like a great environment for gravity wave ducting. May be something to keep an close eye on in observations. If anyone sees some weird looking observations with a rapid wind shift or pressure rise/fall couplet, post it here quick! Totally expect to see this occurring tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichMedic Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 not much here, but here are a few pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 3 miles north of I-88 FTW.. Schaumburg, FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 We've got approx. 7-8 inches in Edmond, current temp 7 degrees with gusts to 50MPH. Jeff Morrow from the TWC said on air around 7AM it was the worst conditions he had ever been in. East side of OKC metro approaching 12", Tulsa approaching 14-15". Snow is so fine now that radar is not picking it up well. Epic conditions for down here. You guys are in for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 trying not to get to hyped up, but hoping for 15" instead of 10" now, suprised no updated AFD have come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 To be honest I'm surprised it took them this long to bite. 24 hours ago they were pretty down on the storm. That may have been due in part to the poor model handling at that time, and a much lower than normal confidence. I was hoping the HPC discos from last night would have talked more about the poor handling of this storm by the NCEP guidance and the very obvious convective feedback issues in both the GFS/NAM. It was obvious the powderkeg potential, the beefy PV max, and the extreme low level theta-e regime as well as a coupled jet pattern aloft and convective driven pressure falls that this would tank out. The NAM/GFS just looked plain unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Does anyone have a reading on where the SLP is right now and it's current direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 3 miles north of I-88 FTW.. insanity more insanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 LES about 26 blocks from Lake Michigan here in Kenosha is coming down pretty hard. Cleared small drift that was blocking door on N side of my house--with our neighbor so close to our home we usually have a great wind tunnel going. Will post pictures for your viewing pleasure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 We've got approx. 7-8 inches in Edmond, current temp 7 degrees with gusts to 50MPH. Jeff Morrow from the TWC said on air around 7AM it was the worst conditions he had ever been in. East side of OKC metro approaching 12", Tulsa approaching 14-15". Snow is so fine now that radar is not picking it up well. Epic conditions for down here. You guys are in for it. Snow has basically stopped here in Norman and we still have poor visibility from all the blowing snow, lol. Crazy storm...this easily holds up to some of the best ones I've ever been in in MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Does anyone have a reading on where the SLP is right now and it's current direction? http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 LES about 26 blocks from Lake Michigan here in Kenosha is coming down pretty hard. Cleared small drift that was blocking door on N side of my house--with our neighbor so close to our home we usually have a great wind tunnel going. Will post pictures for your viewing pleasure. Welcome, and I think the southeastern portions of Wisconsin will get more of the brunt of the storm than previously forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 b_i, it soon should start to look epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I've seen quite a few images from the HRRR posted. This is one of those nowcasting scenarios where it should perform well. It has moments when it is completely out to lunch, but can really nail things at times, especially during strongly forced events (sound familiar?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stryker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I've seen quite a few images from the HRRR posted. This is one of those nowcasting scenarios where it should perform well. It has moments when it is completely out to lunch, but can really nail things at times, especially during strongly forced events (sound familiar?). So its not too accurate but in this situation it probably is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 insanity more insanity trying to contain my excitement for the next few hours till I get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 b_i, it soon should start to look epic! That looks SICK. I will be changing my avatar later when the beast really gets going. I love Isentropic Potential Vorticity. IPV thinking works so much better than QG forcing for a storm such as this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 WOW In eastern Wisconsin, lake effect snow squalls have intensified in the past hour. Thundersnow was reported at 8:30AM in St. Francis, Wisconsin, just outside of Milwaukee. Visibility is down to 1/4 of a mile along stretches of Interstate 43 between Milwaukee and Green Bay with cars sliding into ditches http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I've seen quite a few images from the HRRR posted. This is one of those nowcasting scenarios where it should perform well. It has moments when it is completely out to lunch, but can really nail things at times, especially during strongly forced events (sound familiar?). It performed very vell during the last EC snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannister80 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Snow looking to hit Peoria in about an hour, some forecasts just upped from 1-3 in. befor 3 pm to 4-6 in. before 4 pm. Should get interesting quick. I might bail from work in Morton around 12:30 or 1 depending on how the wind is to get home in Peoria. So let's say Peoria gets the brunt of the dryslot...what kind of total reduction are we looking at? Looking for a worst-case scenario so I don't get my hopes destroyed. Also, what are the chances of getting massive dryslot in Peoria? 30% at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 So its not too accurate but in this situation it probably is? I find it to be hit or miss when events are weakly forced, and nearly always a good representation when things are strongly forced. I would say if it is wrong it is with timing most often, storm evolution is usually spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 WOW http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The occlusion is the part that REALLY confuses me. If the storm trends further NW (as it is), does someone like me in MI WANT a faster occlusion then? it confuses me too ideally, what id like to see is a stronger storm but with a similar location of occlusion. i dont want this to blow its load too far S and W. i guess we will just have to see what happens and follow the great play by play by the mets here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah, here in S.WI we picked up 6 with the WAA/le so far. Dodge has 7 and a snow depth of 18 inches already. Could easily have a snow depth of 24-30 inches if everything goes right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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