Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 MadTown, I would say 12-14+ inches could be possible for you. NAM gets you in the 16-18 inch+ band. RUC is near there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Latest HRRR seems to have the pivot point over northern IL. That thing just looks sick. That looks very good indeed. Dryslot seems to be pretty far south towards I80 looks like to me but what do I know. By the looks of it on that run, that would be about as far north as it gets before the defo band pivots through. Lock that in and record is toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 In your opinion, from that pivot point, would the precip fill back in down towards the SE into IN, or would the storm race off NE and pull that backside with it? thanks for your posts. The defo band will prolly track across itself--I don't know if it will actually drop back into Indiana except along the northern part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 if it can head due north for a few more hours then progged, that would put me in game for 2-3 more inches (on top of my 3" already) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What's the 12z NAM bufkit for YYZ SSC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Beautiful beach weather. I'll have to remind myself when i'm down there getting blown over that i was swimming in 80 degree water there 6 months earlier. Gotta love this climate. Haha--can't wait to see the video of the blizzard that you take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 12z NAM for ORD: QPF: 1.76" Snowfall: 31.6" I am thinking more and more that this will break the record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GRR is starting to look pretty solid too. The models are giving this side of the lake a little more loving. 12 inches always seemed like a good number for this storm, but if the trend continues I could see 16 inches plus. Any thoughts? GRR's largest snowstorm had 16.1 inches of snow, I'd love to see that record fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The Wxcaster clown maps have been very consistent...i'm impressed... the colors are refreshing. :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Freezing drizzle here in Bloomington, IL - at this time. 23 degrees. Wal Mart Bread Shelves WOW!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Where the heck is Bowme? It seems he only posts when negative trends are occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stryker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 How will this "dryslotting" affect the Peoria/Bloomington forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Starting to get concerned that I should be further west a bit - currently in Bloomington, IL Don't like this map http://rapidrefresh....w_t2sfc_f15.png But really not sure what to think because I haven't had time to look at much - I know some of you have micro-analyzed this Any thoughts still got time to head west towards me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Haha--can't wait to see the video of the blizzard that you take. Yeah i'm pretty stoked, the idea of 20"+ with 60+mph winds is hard to wrap my head around. I'll tell you one thing, i won't be walking out onto the ice like i did yesterday. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING WITHGUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO 14 TO 18 FT...WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 25 FT. THESE LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. PORTIONS OF LAKE SHORE DRIVE AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT OVER WASH FLOODING FROM HIGH WAVES. IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE WAVES WILL CAUSE FREEZING SPRAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 BTW, could anyone be as kind to give me numbers for the RUC and NAM in terms of QPF for GR? Greatly appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 WOW!!!! Had to pickup some D batteries this morning, Walmart, Kroger and Marsh were all sold out (finally found a pack at Walgreens). Most of the shelves here in Lebanon were pretty much sold out of most common items. Looking at the HRRR, looks like freezing rain across all of Central Indiana up to .25" every hour for quite a few hours. Checked the trees here and they have a light coating of ice from last night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Where the heck is Bowme? It seems he only posts when negative trends are occurring. bowme posting before noon, lolz. Unless he got up early to go ice fishing or smoke some meat don't expect him to roll out of bed until later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like GFS is finally catching on to the NW trend. Precip shield is probably about 30 miles farther NW with heavier qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 @csnavywx RUC still shows that wave ducting scenario possibly. Has some sick looking winds over N IL. 65+ kts now. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Yikes. Yeah, that's about as good as it gets for ducting. Look at that unstable layer aloft... sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah i'm pretty stoked, the idea of 20"+ with 60+mph winds is hard to wrap my head around. I'll tell you one thing, i won't be walking out onto the ice like i did yesterday. Are they still calling for flooding between LSD and Sheridan like they were earlier? That would be insane. LSD covered in a foot of frozen lake ice...could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Haha--can't wait to see the video of the blizzard that you take. my goal is to get a video of thunder and lightning...staying up all night. problem is my garage faces to the east so the wind might be a bit of a problem but who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Bowme told me he was gonna get up at 5 am to check out the models. The cubs have a greater chance at winning the world series then him getting out of bed at 5 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What's the 12z NAM bufkit for YYZ SSC? 11-13" on 0.95" QPF. Tremendous omega but very shallow DGZ, which I suppose is caused by significant warming aloft. We still do have elevated instability intersecting the DGZ, so tssn is still a good bet, but without a deeper DGZ we can't turn that 0.95" into something more productive. But still an awesome storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Are they still calling for flooding between LSD and Sheridan like they were earlier? That would be insane. LSD covered in a foot of frozen lake ice...could happen yeah they upgraded to a lakeshore flood warning (sheridan between Evanston and Rogers Park should be particularly insane), LOT mentioned waves up to 20' breaking apart the near shore ice. I was down there walking on it yesterday, it's pretty thick and IMO will be tough to break, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That is what I am worried about, as well Some of the data shows a very sharp cut off Like this http://rapidrefresh....w_t2sfc_f15.png Worried I need to go west a bit But unsure Running out of time to make that decision I would head nw. But then again it is one short term model. If the storm is more intense that dry slot would expand it seems to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That is what I am worried about, as well Some of the data shows a very sharp cut off Like this http://rapidrefresh....w_t2sfc_f15.png Worried I need to go west a bit But unsure Running out of time to make that decision Get north or west, Beau. Go up I-39 and hit LaSalle, in my opinion. Gimme a minute and I'll get you some more viable options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 my goal is to get a video of thunder and lightning...staying up all night. problem is my garage faces to the east so the wind might be a bit of a problem but who cares at least you have a garage to take shelter in, i'm still trying to figure out some logistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 yeah they upgraded to a lakeshore flood warning (sheridan between Evanston and Rogers Park should be particularly insane), LOT mentioned waves up to 20' breaking apart the near shore ice. I was down there walking on it yesterday, it's pretty thick and IMO will be tough to break, we'll see. Yeah, I was in town for a few days until sunday because of a school break and driving down LSD the ice was looking pretty respectable. More up in Rogers Park, it didn't seem to go as far out but there were a lot of areas with pancake ice. I think if those 60 mile an hour winds verify, they will make mincemeat of the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 plan to get some good video of blowing snow here...live in the country so should be pretty intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That is what I am worried about, as well Some of the data shows a very sharp cut off Like this http://rapidrefresh....w_t2sfc_f15.png Worried I need to go west a bit But unsure Running out of time to make that decision Come to Macomb. All you guys can stay in my dorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.