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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 8


Hoosier

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Latest HRRR seems to have the pivot point over northern IL. That thing just looks sick.

That looks very good indeed. Dryslot seems to be pretty far south towards I80 looks like to me but what do I know.

By the looks of it on that run, that would be about as far north as it gets before the defo band pivots through. Lock that in and record is toast.

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In your opinion, from that pivot point, would the precip fill back in down towards the SE into IN, or would the storm race off NE and pull that backside with it? thanks for your posts.

The defo band will prolly track across itself--I don't know if it will actually drop back into Indiana except along the northern part of the state.

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Starting to get concerned that I should be further west a bit - currently in Bloomington, IL

Don't like this map

http://rapidrefresh....w_t2sfc_f15.png

But really not sure what to think because I haven't had time to look at much - I know some of you have micro-analyzed this

Any thoughts

still got time to head west towards me

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Haha--can't wait to see the video of the blizzard that you take.

Yeah i'm pretty stoked, the idea of 20"+ with 60+mph winds is hard to wrap my head around. I'll tell you one thing, i won't be walking out onto the ice like i did yesterday.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING WITH

GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN

WAVES BUILDING TO 14 TO 18 FT...WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 25 FT.

THESE LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH

EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. PORTIONS OF LAKE SHORE DRIVE AND

OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE

SIGNIFICANT OVER WASH FLOODING FROM HIGH WAVES.

IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE WAVES

WILL CAUSE FREEZING SPRAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT

ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE.

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WOW!!!!

Had to pickup some D batteries this morning, Walmart, Kroger and Marsh were all sold out (finally found a pack at Walgreens). Most of the shelves here in Lebanon were pretty much sold out of most common items.

Looking at the HRRR, looks like freezing rain across all of Central Indiana up to .25" every hour for quite a few hours. Checked the trees here and they have a light coating of ice from last night..

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Yeah i'm pretty stoked, the idea of 20"+ with 60+mph winds is hard to wrap my head around. I'll tell you one thing, i won't be walking out onto the ice like i did yesterday.

Are they still calling for flooding between LSD and Sheridan like they were earlier? That would be insane. LSD covered in a foot of frozen lake ice...could happen

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What's the 12z NAM bufkit for YYZ SSC?

11-13" on 0.95" QPF. Tremendous omega but very shallow DGZ, which I suppose is caused by significant warming aloft. We still do have elevated instability intersecting the DGZ, so tssn is still a good bet, but without a deeper DGZ we can't turn that 0.95" into something more productive. But still an awesome storm.

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Are they still calling for flooding between LSD and Sheridan like they were earlier? That would be insane. LSD covered in a foot of frozen lake ice...could happen

yeah they upgraded to a lakeshore flood warning (sheridan between Evanston and Rogers Park should be particularly insane), LOT mentioned waves up to 20' breaking apart the near shore ice. I was down there walking on it yesterday, it's pretty thick and IMO will be tough to break, we'll see.

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That is what I am worried about, as well

Some of the data shows a very sharp cut off

Like this

http://rapidrefresh....w_t2sfc_f15.png

Worried I need to go west a bit

But unsure

Running out of time to make that decision

I would head nw. But then again it is one short term model. If the storm is more intense that dry slot would expand it seems to me.

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That is what I am worried about, as well

Some of the data shows a very sharp cut off

Like this

http://rapidrefresh....w_t2sfc_f15.png

Worried I need to go west a bit

But unsure

Running out of time to make that decision

Get north or west, Beau. Go up I-39 and hit LaSalle, in my opinion. Gimme a minute and I'll get you some more viable options.

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yeah they upgraded to a lakeshore flood warning (sheridan between Evanston and Rogers Park should be particularly insane), LOT mentioned waves up to 20' breaking apart the near shore ice. I was down there walking on it yesterday, it's pretty thick and IMO will be tough to break, we'll see.

Yeah, I was in town for a few days until sunday because of a school break and driving down LSD the ice was looking pretty respectable. More up in Rogers Park, it didn't seem to go as far out but there were a lot of areas with pancake ice. I think if those 60 mile an hour winds verify, they will make mincemeat of the ice.

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