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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 8


Hoosier

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we would be in great shape on the image that baro posted.

It's going to be a battle and i think the HRRR will indeed show most of LOT well into the dryslot. That said we're going to soar past the 12" disappointment threshhold either way.

Lake snow continues to slowly ramp up in intensity. Would be nice to sneak a bonus inch or two.

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we’re going to have an explosion of thundersnow reports this evening across NW MO, NC and N Illinois and far W Iowa.

pretty much my thoughts as well, going to be more intense.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT VERY INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL

DEVELOP WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND WITH TREMENDOUSLY STRONG UPPER

LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE

(NEARING 8C/KM) ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL

PROVIDE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO

DEVELOP WITHIN THE TROWAL...LEADING TO LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL

TOTALS. IN FACT...SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCAPES OF 100-200

J/KG WILL DEVELOP WHICH MEANS WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE UPRIGHT

CONVECTION DEVELOP.

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@csnavywx

RUC still shows that wave ducting scenario possibly. Has some sick looking winds over N IL. 65+ kts now.

http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false

Beautiful beach weather. I'll have to remind myself when i'm down there getting blown over that i was swimming in 80 degree water there 6 months earlier. Gotta love this climate.

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