snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0855 AM HEAVY SNOW MIAMI 36.87N 94.88W 02/01/2011 M13.0 INCH OTTAWA OK EMERGENCY MNGR SNOWED 5 INCHES IN PAST 90 MINUTES. Wow. I can't even imagine what rates like that look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 yby cutting it close there. keep shifting it NW as dryslot has gone from unlikely to likely per HRRR which apparently has a good grasp at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I certainly favor and recommend the NIU weather radar over Intellicast for an approximate gauge of snow/ice/rain. Not totally accurate either, but an improvement in my opinion for a good broadbrush that should be verified with reports. http://weather2.admin.niu.edu/niuil.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well, if the HRRR is right, the dryslot will threaten Waukegan we would be in great shape on the image that baro posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Snow is almost near Springfield already, moving slowly north. Everything looks to be on target. RUC/HRRR look to be in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 we would be in great shape on the image that baro posted. We can hope. Getting some moderate lake effect right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0855 AM HEAVY SNOW MIAMI 36.87N 94.88W 02/01/2011 M13.0 INCH OTTAWA OK EMERGENCY MNGR SNOWED 5 INCHES IN PAST 90 MINUTES. That's not too far SW of me. It's really coming down, whiteout when the wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 we would be in great shape on the image that baro posted. It's going to be a battle and i think the HRRR will indeed show most of LOT well into the dryslot. That said we're going to soar past the 12" disappointment threshhold either way. Lake snow continues to slowly ramp up in intensity. Would be nice to sneak a bonus inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I am even starting to worry about a mix or dry slot up here in Michiana if this thinking continues on this model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM clownage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 we’re going to have an explosion of thundersnow reports this evening across NW MO, NC and N Illinois and far W Iowa. pretty much my thoughts as well, going to be more intense. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT VERY INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND WITH TREMENDOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE (NEARING 8C/KM) ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE TROWAL...LEADING TO LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL TOTALS. IN FACT...SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCAPES OF 100-200 J/KG WILL DEVELOP WHICH MEANS WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE UPRIGHT CONVECTION DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Latest HRRR seems to have the pivot point over northern IL. That thing just looks sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Latest HRRR seems to have the pivot point over northern IL. That thing just looks sick. yeah it does, lets keep it there and make a run at the oft hypoethsized theoretical threshold of 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I love the snowfall graident on the NAM. Green Bay hardly receives a flake, Oshkosh is like in the 6-8 range, and here it's 12-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hrrr and ruc say quad cities and chicago are ground zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuskegonMan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM clownage That looks a bit better for me getting a 12"+ so I hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 just got in gonna catch up on the overnight events now, looks to be 27 pages weeeeeeeeeeeeeee gonna be a fun couple days good luck all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 @csnavywx RUC still shows that wave ducting scenario possibly. Has some sick looking winds over N IL. 65+ kts now. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=574&sounding.y=292&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=RUC&grid=255&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=02&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=14&fhour=12¶meter=WSPD&level=10&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Seem to be sitting in a better position for the heavy band at this point. Dry slotted up here even? Time to set up the yard stick and the time lapse on the web cam. I promise not to post still shots of Lawrence and Cumberland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Latest HRRR seems to have the pivot point over northern IL. That thing just looks sick. That looks very good indeed. Dryslot seems to be pretty far south towards I80 looks like to me but what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Latest HRRR seems to have the pivot point over northern IL. That thing just looks sick. In your opinion, from that pivot point, would the precip fill back in down towards the SE into IN, or would the storm race off NE and pull that backside with it? thanks for your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 so what totals are we looking at for the madison area now...seems this thing is headed much further northwest, not sure if the wife's flight will be leaving, much less the 25 mi drive to the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 And that's only through 13z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 @csnavywx RUC still shows that wave ducting scenario possibly. Has some sick looking winds over N IL. 65+ kts now. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Beautiful beach weather. I'll have to remind myself when i'm down there getting blown over that i was swimming in 80 degree water there 6 months earlier. Gotta love this climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 12z NAM for ORD: QPF: 1.76" Snowfall: 31.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 we look in great shape on this run...was just going to post this but two people beat me to it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 really liking the 2'+ potential in this area. These changes look like they're helping my chances immensely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Lol at that ruc snowfall map. 7.5 to 10 back into minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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