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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 8


Hoosier

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All of the Facebook statuses coming from Chicago friends completely downplay the storm...some people are still only expecting 3 inches or nothing at all! They are in for a nasty shock.:arrowhead:

yeah for every 1 person i've encountered taking it seriously, 20 are downplaying it. I can't tell you how many times i've hear "they always say historic" or something along those lines.

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wtf, is that a gravity wave the HRRR is trying to depict on low level winds? Maybe I'm just seeing things. Checking further.

Really aggravating, since I can't see the MSLP on there, but the low level winds are suggesting that the HRRR is trying to generate a gravity wave. There's a nice, very strong inversion with a steep lapse rate under that, and an unstable layer aloft, so this looks like a great environment for gravity wave ducting. May be something to keep an close eye on in observations. If anyone sees some weird looking observations with a rapid wind shift or pressure rise/fall couplet, post it here quick!

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Well it's looking increasingly likely that the January 22-23, 2005 storm will continue to be the biggest storm of my lifetime (12-13"), unless somehow we can get quite a bit of convective snows tonight and/or no dry slottng.

Mesoscale features are dam near impossible to predict sometimes...do you live in SEMI ? the HRRR gives us some insane convection for a 3-5 hour window.

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EXTREME geostrophic adjustment

May I ask what this means? I can't find a good definition on the web.

Thanks in advance,

Mogs

AMS says it better than I. But this system is extremely dynamic and the response is quite extreme. In these situations it is typical to see these types of waves when there is a rapid adjustment.

geostrophic adjustment—The process by which an unbalanced atmospheric flow field is modified to geostrophic equilibrium, generally by a mutual adjustment of the atmospheric wind and pressure fields depending on the initial horizontal scale of the disturbance.

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Really aggravating, since I can't see the MSLP on there, but the low level winds are suggesting that the HRRR is trying to generate a gravity wave. There's a nice, very strong inversion with a steep lapse rate under that, and an unstable layer aloft, so this looks like a great environment for gravity wave ducting. May be something to keep an close eye on in observations. If anyone sees some weird looking observations with a rapid wind shift or pressure rise/fall couplet, post it here quick!

Good point on the ducting. With such a dynamic beast it may very well be something to watch. Reminds me of mountain wave downslope wind forecasting haha.

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Mesoscale features are dam near impossible to predict sometimes...

Exactly, and they can always go either way (thus my use of the word "unless").

BTW, we would need 12 hours of at least 1" per hour rates to exceed my aforementioned storm. While not impossible given the dynamics with this storm, the climo for storms around this region and the recent trends (I.E. shorter duration) suggest otherwise.

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Exactly, and they can always go either way (thus my use of hte word "unless").

BTW, we would need 12 hours of at least 1" per hour rates to exceed my aforementioned storm. While not impossible given the dynamics with this storm, the climo for storms around this region and the recent trends (I.E. shorter duration) suggest otherwise.

Agree.. But in some of the intense Mesoscale features snowfall rates could exceed 3 inches per hour..occlusion may allow the deform band to stall out for a short time. I dont think its impossible to see banding that stalls out and drop 3-5 inches in a couple of hours on top of the rest. 10-15 solid even with dry slotting. DTX is right!

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Really aggravating, since I can't see the MSLP on there, but the low level winds are suggesting that the HRRR is trying to generate a gravity wave. There's a nice, very strong inversion with a steep lapse rate under that, and an unstable layer aloft, so this looks like a great environment for gravity wave ducting. May be something to keep an close eye on in observations. If anyone sees some weird looking observations with a rapid wind shift or pressure rise/fall couplet, post it here quick!

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RUC&grid=255&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=02&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=13&fhour=12&parameter=WSPD&level=10&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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Agree.. But in some of the intense Mesoscale features snowfall rates could exceed 3 inches per hour..occlusion may allow the deform band to stall out for a short time. I dont think its impossible to see banding that stalls out and drop 3-5 inches in a couple of hours on top of the rest. 10-15 solid even with dry slotting. DTX is right!

But it's also just as possible that these intense mesoscale bands will be very transient in nature. We'll just have to see, but I'm personally not feeling as good about it in our region as I was before. The occlusion (deeper) would just bring the dry slot in sooner since the low's setting up so far west.

That said, it still looks good for Missouri/Iowa/Iliinois/Western Michigan.

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But it's also just as possible that these intense mesoscale bands will be very transient in nature. We'll just have to see, but I'm personally not feeling as good about it in our region as I was before. The occlusion (deeper) would just bring the dry slot in sooner since the low's setting up so far west.

That said, it still looks good for Missouri/Iowa/Iliinois/Western Michigan.

Ive been the impression that occlusion and a transfer will be in our favor..It could stall the Deform band and not allow as much warm air to breech the Oh/MI line.

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I still think there is a chance that Muskegon will get >12" based on the NW trend and intense SLP. Here in GRR I am feeling more confident of a major hit with each passing hour.

Morning look at the GRR Guidance and Warnings show that Im going to just be north of the core snowfall :(

Anyone got other ideas based on the models?

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