A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This. Being so far north in a storm like this has its advantages, and one of them is being able to avoid that nasty dry slot. Still, given the way things are going now, this may come a lot closer than originally anticipated. i think we'll get showery for a period before the tail end pulls back through and becomes more lake enhanced. The initial surge looks sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Use the EURO/GFS...NAM has been all over the place with this Thats what I figured....the NAM is the only model that has introduced mixing issues here (even then it would only be brief, but still, want 0 wasted qpf) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Close but methinks you will be ok for now. Deeper height falls and faster occlusion may help the warm air from making it in aloft and turning to sleet. The occlusion is the part that REALLY confuses me. If the storm trends further NW (as it is), does someone like me in MI WANT a faster occlusion then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Stebo ?? Thoughts on the dry slot and QPF if you dont mind.. I think there is a chance that areas south of the city could run into the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thats what I figured....the NAM is the only model that has introduced mixing issues here (even then it would only be brief, but still, want 0 wasted qpf) Mixing is going to stay along and south of the border. Dry slot may set in after 14-15 inches all ready fell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 In SEMI we would almost want that dry slot to scoot just south of Toledo..North of DS would be some insane convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well, if the HRRR is right, the dryslot will threaten Waukegan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 In SEMI we would almost want that dry slot to scoot just south of Toledo..North of DS would be some insane convection Thats what I think is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well, if the HRRR is right, the dryslot will threaten Waukegan after 18 or 20 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thats what I think is going to happen. The HRRR isn't our friend right now. But with rapid occlusion we may...i mean just maybe be able to avoid a pro longed period of mid level dryness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 after 18 or 20 inches? It would be less than that but the defo would still pull back through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The occlusion is the part that REALLY confuses me. If the storm trends further NW (as it is), does someone like me in MI WANT a faster occlusion then? I dont think it will matter for now--the heavy stuff will still be over you but you may sniff the dryslot for a short period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Snow picking up here and blowing around everywhere. Really giving me a sneak preview of how difficult it's going to be to measure tomorrow. May employ an extra snowboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It would be less than that but the defo would still pull back through. any qpf on that NAM run for ORD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The banding showing up across MO is awesome, as are the lake enhanced plumes coming off lake michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Worst case a 2-3 hour window of the dry slot .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Did the SLP just go back up to 1000 mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 any qpf on that NAM run for ORD? don't have the exact number, good bit over 1.5, probably 1.65 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Latest RUC has some wicked winds in northern IL and this is just as it is getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Latest RUC has some wicked winds in northern IL and this is just as it is getting started. we're probably gusting to 30-35 regularly on the lakefront already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 local radio met just came on and said with the latest models if it holds true on the next ones they will up totals to 10-15" for madison area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 the intellicast precip type radar is always sketchy, but it looks like the mixing line just took a good jog north in MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Latest RUC has some wicked winds in northern IL and this is just as it is getting started. wtf, is that a gravity wave the HRRR is trying to depict on low level winds? Maybe I'm just seeing things. Checking further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naptown Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 looks like we had about 3/4" sleet last night and then freezing rain on top of it. sleet is packed solid making it like one big ice rink. my dog was sliding all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Worst case a 2-3 hour window of the dry slot .. qpf actually much improved on the NAM over its 6z, so not the disaster I was fearing. Damn computer models and knowledge of whats going on in other areas, dont want that to get in the way of appreciating what will be an awesome storm. To ME, this is actually reminding me of having potential to be like the blizzard of '78. We started then with a good half foot of snow on the ground before the first flakes fell (the same as now), we had a tremendous blizzard but "only" got 10" as areas to the west got way more. With the drifts and stuff the general public certainly didnt feel gypped lol, and if that happens again, hope I dont either. BTW thanks baro for the input, I was just so clueless about occlusion lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wheres the center of circulation right now. I get on the NOAA radar maps. Must be flooded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 There is an EXTREME geostrophic adjustment going on with this beast. You can see fast waves pulsing through SD on the WV if you loop it fast enough. This thing is beastly. http://rap.ucar.edu/...=-1&duration=12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 really liking the 2'+ potential in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 All of the Facebook statuses coming from Chicago friends completely downplay the storm...some people are still only expecting 3 inches or nothing at all! They are in for a nasty shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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