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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 8


Hoosier

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Don't see a separate obs thread so here goes:

Very surprised to measure 7.5" avg. snow this morning, as of an hour ago. Figured we'd have 4-5" at best.

This was very fluffy snow, no idea what the ratio was. "Felt" like at least 17-20 to 1. Temp is 18-19F.

Still having steady flurries to light snow, then all of a sudden, vis will go down to 1/2 mile in a better lake snow shower.

Wind isn't a big deal, about 10, with a stray gust to 15 out of the ENE.

Location here is far south-central Sheboygan Co., 40 miles north of Milwaukee and 12 miles inland from Lake MI.

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not that I'm worried yet about the dry slot here but this thing would have to start moving a bit more east at this point or it would come close to here..

Being just north of the dry-slot would be ideal. I could see it reaching around to I-80 or so, maybe just north of there. I'm satisfied with my/our position in the Tri-Cities. (And, I had better not regret saying this.)

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Yeah it is still in fail mode at the surface/low levels. The band is bigger and more defined though--more realistic. That was mainly what I was referencing. GFS will likely be in fail mode too.

How do you see the failing models affecting SE MI? You dont think we have a lot of mixing issues do you? This storm has me so confused

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Yeah it is still in fail mode at the surface/low levels. The band is bigger and more defined though--more realistic. That was mainly what I was referencing. GFS will likely be in fail mode too.

Really have to start wondering about how this is going to affect the dry slot later. Stronger storm ---> Bigger dry slot penetration. Am a bit concerned about this aspect now.

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Being just north of the dry-slot would be ideal. I could see it reaching around to I-80 or so, maybe just north of there. I'm satisfied with my/our position in the Tri-Cities. (And, I had better not regret saying this.)

I think were ok for now, hoping it says that way. It would be a pretty big bust if it happened.

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Really have to start wondering about how this is going to affect the dry slot later. Stronger storm ---> Bigger dry slot penetration. Am a bit concerned about this aspect now.

i think it's a given for somewhere nearby. On the plus side, the snows ahead are looking more and more ridiculous.

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I think were ok for now, hoping it says that way. It would be a pretty big bust if it happened.

This. Being so far north in a storm like this has its advantages, and one of them is being able to avoid that nasty dry slot. Still, given the way things are going now, this may come a lot closer than originally anticipated.

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