cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Gentlemen, can I get a Peoria IL forecast? ILX is calling for 17.5", but that seems low to me. Has there been a shift overnight? Thanks! Peoria and Galesburg look pretty similar to Chicago to me. I'd go with 16-20" with isolated higher amounts. I'm growing a bit concerned with the RUC/HRRR. It looks great here for snow, but it's moving this in much faster than other models. Was hoping this would hold off till a little later in the afternoon so I can make it back home ok lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 btw...hope people are archiving images/text from this event. I'm too tired to be systematic about it, but I've got some of the sweeter looking model images on my HD. i hope the mix doesn't fk our total's up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This is just mind blowing. SPC meso disco makes mention of the 12Z analysis down to 999 hpa. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0066 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AR...SRN/ERN MO...SWRN IL CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 011254Z - 011730Z A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST BETWEEN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE NW /REF MCD 0064/ AND RAIN TO THE SE. LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES AOA 0.10 IN/HR WILL REMAIN LIKELY. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 999 MB CYCLONE IN FAR NERN TX WITH QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AR TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH 18Z...LOW-LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE TO THE N/NE OF THE CYCLONE FROM S-CNTRL MO INTO SWRN IL SHOULD SLOWLY COOL AS SWATHS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO SPREAD N/NEWD. 12Z SGF RAOB SAMPLED A SMALL ABOVE-FREEZING WARM NOSE /AROUND 1 DEG C AT 825 MB/...SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND A 50 MILE CORRIDOR OF SLEET FROM SWRN INTO E-CNTRL MO. THIS SLEET CORRIDOR SHOULD PIVOT INTO NWRN AR /PER 03Z SREF LIKELY PTYPE/...RELEGATING PREDOMINANT FREEZING RAIN TO S-CNTRL MO INTO SRN IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Some -SN from the WAA starting to fall. Shouldn't amount to much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 DVN updated discussion 509 FXUS63 KDVN 011304 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 704 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011 UPDATE VERIFICATION AT 12Z INDICATES STORM SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AT A RATE AS FAST OR FASTER THAN PROJECTIONS. COMPARING DATA...PLUS USING NUMEROUS TECHNIQUES SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY NOT ONLY BE STRONGER...BUT COULD OCCLUDE OR WRAP UP MORE THAN PLANNED BACK TOWARD OUR AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD RESULT IN EVEN HIGHER SNOW TOTALS...SNOW-FALL RATES AND POSSIBLE THUNDER-SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT ALSO MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS FOR MORE SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THIS RISK SHOULD BE CONFIRMED IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED...BUT INDICATIONS CLEARLY SUPPORT THIS WILL NOT ONLY BE A MAJOR STORM OF NEAR HISTORIC PROPORTIONS...BUT MAY BE A BIT STRONGER FOR AT LEAST OUR SE 1/2 LOCATIONS THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. INDIVIDUALS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. ..NICHOLS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radionicist Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Woke up yo a surprise this morning - nearly 5" of snow from the WAA last night. I'm in NW Ohio (Putnam County), as was concerned about FRZ, but it stayed all snow. Our pool table topography means significant drifting already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i hope the mix doesn't fk our total's up That, and the dry slot. It's a big concern now with the further north track likely but you'll get a massive blast of snow out ahead of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 DVN updated discussion 509 FXUS63 KDVN 011304 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 704 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011 UPDATE VERIFICATION AT 12Z INDICATES STORM SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AT A RATE AS FAST OR FASTER THAN PROJECTIONS. COMPARING DATA...PLUS USING NUMEROUS TECHNIQUES SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY NOT ONLY BE STRONGER...BUT COULD OCCLUDE OR WRAP UP MORE THAN PLANNED BACK TOWARD OUR AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD RESULT IN EVEN HIGHER SNOW TOTALS...SNOW-FALL RATES AND POSSIBLE THUNDER-SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT ALSO MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS FOR MORE SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THIS RISK SHOULD BE CONFIRMED IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED...BUT INDICATIONS CLEARLY SUPPORT THIS WILL NOT ONLY BE A MAJOR STORM OF NEAR HISTORIC PROPORTIONS...BUT MAY BE A BIT STRONGER FOR AT LEAST OUR SE 1/2 LOCATIONS THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. INDIVIDUALS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. ..NICHOLS.. Nice disco--glad I am not the only one seeing this thing is bombing fast and way faster than projected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 DVN updated discussion 509 FXUS63 KDVN 011304 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 704 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011 UPDATE VERIFICATION AT 12Z INDICATES STORM SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AT A RATE AS FAST OR FASTER THAN PROJECTIONS. COMPARING DATA...PLUS USING NUMEROUS TECHNIQUES SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY NOT ONLY BE STRONGER...BUT COULD OCCLUDE OR WRAP UP MORE THAN PLANNED BACK TOWARD OUR AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD RESULT IN EVEN HIGHER SNOW TOTALS...SNOW-FALL RATES AND POSSIBLE THUNDER-SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT ALSO MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS FOR MORE SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THIS RISK SHOULD BE CONFIRMED IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED...BUT INDICATIONS CLEARLY SUPPORT THIS WILL NOT ONLY BE A MAJOR STORM OF NEAR HISTORIC PROPORTIONS...BUT MAY BE A BIT STRONGER FOR AT LEAST OUR SE 1/2 LOCATIONS THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. INDIVIDUALS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. ..NICHOLS.. Wow, I don't really have any other word to describe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 US Warning map at 13Z. Blizzard Warnings for portions of 9 states... WSW's for portions of 22 from Abilene, TX to Eastport ME. Severe Tstorm Warnings in effect in areas with Hard Freeze Warnings. This map only happens once in a decade or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That, and the dry slot. It's a big concern now with the further north track likely but you'll get a massive blast of snow out ahead of that. meh microcast goes crazy with the mix, it even shows plain rain at one time down in the S.tier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 meh microcast goes crazy with the mix, it even shows plain rain at one time down in the S.tier This demonstrates it pretty well: Notice how DET-BUF, once in the bullseye, are now on the southern fringes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Pure insanity. I am getting so amped sitting here watching this unfold. This storm is becoming epic really fast--and we may see a large model failure with this beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 baro_ins, Are you still saying Model Failure ---> Therefore Stronger and further NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 BI can you give me best estimate for the madison area, wife is supposed to fly out later this evening and not sure whats going to happen with this thing looking like ti might be headed a tad more north, but mets lowerd totals here? Thanks a ton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Round 1 of the storm: Precip: 0.08" Snowfall: 1.3" Snow Depth: 7" Now just awaiting the blizzard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backdoorfront Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 How often do you see freeze warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings issued at the same time. Ridiculous. I seem to remember having a thunderstorm warning, a tornado warning and a winter storm warning all on the same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 baro_ins, Are you still saying Model Failure ---> Therefore Stronger and further NW? Stronger and deeper and likely occlude faster with an even larger defo band but also a larger dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard23 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I have been following this thread for days and doing a lot of reading. After being a long time weather weenie, it's amazing how much you can learn from these colossal storms by reading all of the expert and amateur analysis of this storm and the many model runs. Love it! Last night I was watching the Weather Channel while running on the treadmill and noticed that their snowfall map had Fort Wayne, IN highlighted for getting 18-24"! I know that TWC isn't always the most accurate with their snowfall predictions, but that really shocked me. After looking at all the recent models, it appears that Fort Wayne and northeast Indiana have the potential to get somewhere between 8-12". However, with the storm projected to be stronger and occlude faster, could this keep the strong deformation band across northern Indiana for a greater period of time which would increase the snowfall totals for this area? I'm curious to hear anyones thoughts on how the stronger storm and faster occlusion could impact snow totals here in northeast indiana around Fort Wayne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I seem to remember having a thunderstorm warning, a tornado warning and a winter storm warning all on the same day. I do too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Stronger and deeper and likely occlude faster with an even larger defo band but also a larger dryslot. Looks like you guys are going to get creamed, good luck! Amazing that the NAM seems to still be off on how strong that low is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 BI can you give me best estimate for the madison area, wife is supposed to fly out later this evening and not sure whats going to happen with this thing looking like ti might be headed a tad more north, but mets lowerd totals here? Thanks a ton Looks like snow moves in tonight still. I see no change in that. What time does she fly out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Stronger and deeper and likely occlude faster with an even larger defo band but also a larger dryslot. Now if it occludes faster, the Low will sit and stall over an area for a longer period of time, bringing up QPF totals in some areas,right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 9ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Impressive squall line in TX and LA. Also healthy elevated convection surging northward in Arkansas. And its just beginning, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Now if it occludes faster, the Low will sit and stall over an area for a longer period of time, bringing up QPF totals in some areas,right ? Possibly yes--depending on where the location is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Now if it occludes faster, the Low will sit and stall over an area for a longer period of time, bringing up QPF totals in some areas,right ? I've been reading this a lot from members. To me it seems if the low occludes faster it'll promote a transfer to the coast faster, thus reducing the duration of deformation zone precipitation over an area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It would really be disappointing if we busted too high (WRT the forecast amounts) with this storm, it'll take forever to get over. Unfortunately, the latest trends are far from encouraging, but the good news is we may better potential for thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I've been reading this a lot from members. To me it seems if the low occludes faster it'll promote a transfer to the coast faster, thus reducing the duration of deformation zone precipitation over an area. Negative. This thing will likely occlude than stall--similar to the Northern Plains bomb before tracking eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Dry Slot party for SEMI..question is how north will it make...Toledo to Monroe or up to KDTW ? Even if..major convective banding before the threat of the dry slot. This could down on totals for southern counties of SEMI. DTX has made a brief mention of this in AFDs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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