baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Surface pressure map with pressure falls. This thing is on a beeline for the MO bootheel or just within it--inside and W of the NCEP op guidance and more inline with the GGEM and RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 19 degrees with heavy snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just to give an idea of the contrasts: it's currently -34F in Glasgow, MT with NW winds at 10 mph. Wind chill -58F. Pressure 1053 mb...and they're not even in the center of the arctic high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 6z NAM for ORD: QPF: 1.70" Snowfall: 32.0" this is what i wake up to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 this is what i wake up to Yeah NCEP 0z guidance had brain farts last night. This storm will be hauling a defo band like I have never seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 this is what i wake up to Yeah, me too. Good morning...enjoy your 36-hr marathon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 too much to catchup on, what's the current thinking, everything on track? The radar is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i see lake enhanced returns creeping south, should start snowing here before the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 too much to catchup on, what's the current thinking, everything on track? The radar is beautiful. Still deeper and inside the NCEP tracks. I personally believe RGEM has the best idea. Some of the high res WRF runs too. Looks to occlude and stall with the mother of all deformation bands ever. As csnavywx said last night--it is going to be pure weather insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 too much to catchup on, what's the current thinking, everything on track? The radar is beautiful. Everything's been going as scheduled here in Central OK. The heaviest snow appears to be just to my east, but conditions are still awful here. Should be at least 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Still deeper and inside the NCEP tracks. I personally believe RGEM has the best idea. Some of the high res WRF runs too. Looks to occlude and stall with the mother of all deformation bands ever. As csnavywx said last night--it is going to be pure weather insanity. I'm officially bumping my 21" call to 23.1" Going for it. EDIT: light lake snow starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 6z NAM brings the dreaded 3C aloft through LAF...still a lot of cold in the lowest 100 mb but this run is definitely gonna bump or expand the zr potential north compared to 00z. IWX keeps stressing the potential for significant sleet/ice from U.S. 24 southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm officially bumping my 21" call to 23.1" Going for it. EDIT: light lake snow starting. High res WRF, NAM, NMM/ARW all take the beast a tick farther N and stall it longer and more intense. Intensity of the cyclone dictates how far the deformation band is situated from the cyclone--hence why the higher res guidance is farther N. I think Chicago has a serious shot for the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This is true mid-latitude weather at its craziest. What an extratropical cyclone--and a wicked satellite signature and it is barely getting going. This will be more impressive looking than octobomb. If anyone forgot--here is a short satellite animation I compiled of Octobomb. http://www.youtube.c...h?v=zsLFT4WQYN0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubfan61201 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 One of our local tv mets have lowered snow totals for DVN Quad City IA/IL area by a couple inches. I can't see where anything has changed to warrant reducing amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This is awesome and this thread is going to explode ina couple hours. I could barely keep up yesterday. 0z run based on GFS from Met Tech That looks almost like the one from yesterday. I look to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 High res WRF, NAM, NMM/ARW all take the beast a tick farther N and stall it longer and more intense. Intensity of the cyclone dictates how far the deformation band is situated from the cyclone--hence why the higher res guidance is farther N. I think Chicago has a serious shot for the record. sure is looking that way, thanks. I was having a long talk with my dad yesterday, the man who passed on weenie disease. Anyways reminiscing back to the current record holder, he seemed to play the winds with it down, saying they didn't get cranking really until a bunch had already fallen. From the conditions here now, it looks like they'll be ripping from the get go this time around. Anectdotal, but it the winds with all this snow should really be something. I'm also impressed by the lake machine returns in wisconsin and shifting south, considering it's early Feb, that's a substantial contribution and the fetch hasn't even reached it's most favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 They just closed WIU at macomb! This should and hopefully is one of the funnest weather days of my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 are we not going to do an obs thread? I'd actually prefer to keep it all in one place, but i'll roll with it either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That is some wording above lol.. Any reports of power outages in IN? Saw a report of the Terre Haute area with 14,000 customers out of power. Seems to be the most heavily affected with this initial wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Solid glacier pack. I am 285lbs, I could not leave a footprint on the sleet/ice jumping. Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 sure is looking that way, thanks. I was having a long talk with my dad yesterday, the man who passed on weenie disease. Anyways reminiscing back to the current record holder, he seemed to play the winds with it down, saying they didn't get cranking really until a bunch had already fallen. From the conditions here now, it looks like they'll be ripping from the get go this time around. Anectdotal, but it the winds with all this snow should really be something. I'm also impressed by the lake machine returns in wisconsin and shifting south, considering it's early Feb, that's a substantial contribution and the fetch hasn't even reached it's most favorable. Your local weather office sounds like they are in awe more than anything. The mention of both upright/slanted convection is a good one. This will have Noreaster characteristics with the thunderstorms embedded in the defo band. GORGEOUS/CLASSIC MID LATITUDE CYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER THESOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH BLOSSOMING (PARDON THE PUN)BAROCLINIC LEAF ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. RAPIDLY EXPANDING WARMCONVEYOR BELT WITH REGIONAL WSR-88D MOSAIC SHOWING LARGE AREA OFMODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMSSPREADING FROM OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI EARLYTHIS MORNING. AS CYCLONE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OFTHE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY LOOK FOR CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THEMODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT TOBEGIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY AS EARLY ASLATE MORNING...AND UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON.GIVEN THE EXPECTED EARLIER ARRIVAL TIMES OF THE SNOWFALL...HAVEADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO 11 AM SOUTHERNCOUNTIES TO BETTER COINCIDE WITH THE EXPECTED DETERIORATINGCONDITIONS.PART ONE (ASSUMING THE PIDDLY SNOW WE SAW OVERNIGHT WAS PART ZERO)OF THE STORM SHOULD BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY INTENSE WARM AIRADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY ATTIMES WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO HAVE ACCUMULATEDALREADY BY MID EVENING. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE A BITOF A WANING IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL FOR A TIME THISEVENING BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP BIG TIME LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHTWHEN PART TWO STARTS.PART TWO OF THE STORM WILL BE WITH INTENSIFYING TROWAL/DEFORMATIONZONE TONIGHT. UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE ALMOSTOFF THE CHARTS TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO ANEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED/COMPACT MID LEVEL LOW AS IT LIFTSNORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY WEDNESDAYMORNING. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT VERY INTENSE SNOWFALL WILLDEVELOP WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND WITH TREMENDOUSLY STRONG UPPERLEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE.FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE(NEARING 8C/KM) ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILLPROVIDE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODEVELOP WITHIN THE TROWAL...LEADING TO LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALLTOTALS. IN FACT...SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCAPES OF 100-200J/KG WILL DEVELOP WHICH MEANS WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE UPRIGHTCONVECTION DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCAPES OF 100-200J/KG WILL DEVELOP WHICH MEANS WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE UPRIGHTCONVECTION DEVELOP. hopefully we can pop some severe thunderstorm warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 check out these long ass gulf vectors right into the heart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 hopefully we can pop some severe thunderstorm warnings. With the extreme frontogenesis progged and mass and shear atmospheric forcing and deep height falls/cooling--all sorts of crazy convection is likely--especially slanted along the frontal zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 One of our local tv mets have lowered snow totals for DVN Quad City IA/IL area by a couple inches. I can't see where anything has changed to warrant reducing amounts. Not sure. I haven't seen anything to indicate lower amounts. High-res WRF, Euro, and long-range RUC/HRRR peg us pretty good this evening. 12-18" looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 hopefully we can pop some severe thunderstorm warnings. LOL. Are we going to need snornado spotters? This is a monster! Still quite a spread in forecasts. Not that are very accurate but TWC says 2 feet plus for chicago and 18-24 for detroit. Accuwweather has a 12-18 strip from chicago through detroit. If these hi res models are correct I would say less amounts further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 cranking lake enhanced band across the north side of MKE, will really help final totals up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubfan61201 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 LOL. Are we going to need snornado spotters? This is a monster! Still quite a spread in forecasts. Not that are very accurate but TWC says 2 feet plus for chicago and 18-24 for detroit. Accuwweather has a 12-18 strip from chicago through detroit. If these hi res models are correct I would say less amounts further east. I've found Accuweather to be the least accurate in forecast amounts. This sounds like a "safe" downgrade to what the data indicates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The ageostrophic divergent jet stream couplet and intense meso circulation is spectacular and honestly like I have never seen in the central CONUS. This is more typical looking of East Coast bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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