csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 1:52 PM, baroclinic_instability said: HPC 12Z surface analysis has it down to 998. http://www.hpc.ncep....rgnamsfcwbg.gif This thing is in full bombogenesis mode. The ARW cyclogenesis bias may actually turn out in its favor this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 1:54 PM, csnavywx said: This thing is in full bombogenesis mode. The ARW cyclogenesis bias may actually turn out in its favor this time around. Haha bombogenesis indeed. We are definitely watching something historic here. SREF WRF-ARW gets huge kudos here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 1:52 PM, baroclinic_instability said: HPC 12Z surface analysis has it down to 998. http://www.hpc.ncep....rgnamsfcwbg.gif The faster it strengthens the quicker it occludes. Not good for areas further north. Don't blow your load too early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM QPF is hugely improved this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Even though I don't really have anything of value to post, I just wanted to check in... Been spending more time on this section than Southeastern States over the last four days. While we get 70 degree sprinkles, it'll be nice to know that y'all are about to get absolutely dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 1:56 PM, Stevo6899 said: The faster it strengthens the quicker it occludes. Not good for areas further north. Don't blow your load too early! That depends.. Moisture is still gona be plenty . KDTW still 10-16 inches with higher amounts... 10 on the low side for a possible dry slot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WisTodd Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Don't see a separate obs thread so here goes: Very surprised to measure 7.5" avg. snow this morning, as of an hour ago. Figured we'd have 4-5" at best. This was very fluffy snow, no idea what the ratio was. "Felt" like at least 17-20 to 1. Temp is 18-19F. Still having steady flurries to light snow, then all of a sudden, vis will go down to 1/2 mile in a better lake snow shower. Wind isn't a big deal, about 10, with a stray gust to 15 out of the ENE. Location here is far south-central Sheboygan Co., 40 miles north of Milwaukee and 12 miles inland from Lake MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Stalling out would be the cats as*! Deform would just sit over areas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Stebo ?? Thoughts on the dry slot and QPF if you dont mind.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 had to show you guys what my current fb status is as of a few mins ago.. "you know mother nature is going to do it real big when thunderstorms have their own section in the blizzard warning text. The next 24hrs is going to be the most exciting and fun of this weather geek's life." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 1:58 PM, baroclinic_instability said: NAM QPF is hugely improved this run. Omega bomb over NE illinois there, .75" in 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 My god, the 12z NAM is all kinds of awful. Not only would we have to worry about dry slotting (which is probably a given), but now we must worry about mixing concerns again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 1:58 PM, baroclinic_instability said: NAM QPF is hugely improved this run. Still way too weak. Big time by just 6 hours in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 2:03 PM, Powerball said: My god, the 12z NAM is all kinds of awful. Not only would we have to worry about dry slotting (which is probably a given), but now we must worry about mixing concerns again. Temperatures have been well below guidance here in Central Indiana and Western Ohio so far, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 1:38 PM, Thundersnow12 said: not that I'm worried yet about the dry slot here but this thing would have to start moving a bit more east at this point or it would come close to here.. Being just north of the dry-slot would be ideal. I could see it reaching around to I-80 or so, maybe just north of there. I'm satisfied with my/our position in the Tri-Cities. (And, I had better not regret saying this.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 2:04 PM, csnavywx said: Still way too weak. Big time by just 6 hours in. ORD will go over 30" on bufkit with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 2:04 PM, csnavywx said: Still way too weak. Big time by just 6 hours in. Yeah it is still in fail mode at the surface/low levels. The band is bigger and more defined though--more realistic. That was mainly what I was referencing. GFS will likely be in fail mode too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 2:04 PM, TheWeatherPimp said: Temperatures have been well below guidance here in Central Indiana and Western Ohio so far, fwiw. At the surface, aloft, or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM is wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 2:07 PM, baroclinic_instability said: Yeah it is still in fail mode at the surface/low levels. The band is bigger and more defined though--more realistic. That was mainly what I was referencing. GFS will likely be in fail mode too. How do you see the failing models affecting SE MI? You dont think we have a lot of mixing issues do you? This storm has me so confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 2:07 PM, baroclinic_instability said: Yeah it is still in fail mode at the surface/low levels. The band is bigger and more defined though--more realistic. That was mainly what I was referencing. GFS will likely be in fail mode too. Really have to start wondering about how this is going to affect the dry slot later. Stronger storm ---> Bigger dry slot penetration. Am a bit concerned about this aspect now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 2:04 PM, TheWeatherPimp said: Temperatures have been well below guidance here in Central Indiana and Western Ohio so far, fwiw. Sitting at 18 IMBY.. Roads are just nasty here, very solid ice pack. Looking like FZRA is quite the concern now with things move further north it seems.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 2:05 PM, Hoar_Frost said: Being just north of the dry-slot would be ideal. I could see it reaching around to I-80 or so, maybe just north of there. I'm satisfied with my/our position in the Tri-Cities. (And, I had better not regret saying this.) I think were ok for now, hoping it says that way. It would be a pretty big bust if it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 2:09 PM, csnavywx said: Really have to start wondering about how this is going to affect the dry slot later. Stronger storm ---> Bigger dry slot penetration. Am a bit concerned about this aspect now. Wouldnt rapid occlusion wipe that problem away ? Or would that be for areas North East of the Slp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 2:09 PM, csnavywx said: Really have to start wondering about how this is going to affect the dry slot later. Stronger storm ---> Bigger dry slot penetration. Am a bit concerned about this aspect now. i think it's a given for somewhere nearby. On the plus side, the snows ahead are looking more and more ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM is real aggressive with its dryslot. First time it's paid me a visit. Compromise is that the surge of moisture ahead of the slot is more impressive this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 2:11 PM, Thundersnow12 said: I think were ok for now, hoping it says that way. It would be a pretty big bust if it happened. This. Being so far north in a storm like this has its advantages, and one of them is being able to avoid that nasty dry slot. Still, given the way things are going now, this may come a lot closer than originally anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 2:09 PM, csnavywx said: Really have to start wondering about how this is going to affect the dry slot later. Stronger storm ---> Bigger dry slot penetration. Am a bit concerned about this aspect now. Latest HRRR is bringing it way N no doubt. Your area may be better off than areas E though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 2:09 PM, michsnowfreak said: How do you see the failing models affecting SE MI? You dont think we have a lot of mixing issues do you? This storm has me so confused Use the EURO/GFS...NAM has been all over the place with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 2:09 PM, michsnowfreak said: How do you see the failing models affecting SE MI? You dont think we have a lot of mixing issues do you? This storm has me so confused Close but methinks you will be ok for now. Deeper height falls and faster occlusion may help the warm air from making it in aloft and turning to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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