Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If you live by the models, you die by them. This type of practice is rapidly becoming meteorological cancer. Remember several days ago when the Euro lost the storm for one run and a bunch of people got bent out of shape? There's always a reason a model changes its solution, and the way to find out if it is worth considering is figuring out why that change occurred. If this happens to be model initialization or feedback errors, then those errors propagate and increase in size through the entire run. If this shift is a result of a solid meteorological reason, then it's worth paying attention to. The important thing to note is that we're still dealing with a sensitive process of non-linear cyclogenesis. Frankly, I'm not going to get in a tizzy over these two alone. Now, if we determine a good reason, and more of the guidance (especially say... the 03Z SREF) comes in line with it, then changes may be warranted. Perfectly said. Can not ignore the blossoming precip shield and obs as low as 1001.5 hpa when NCEP models have 1004+ in a positive feedback scenario. RGEM is the only 0Z run realistic IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like LAF should still score well.. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1020 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 INZ021-028>031-035>038-011100- CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY- BOONE-TIPTON- 1020 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW OR SLEET WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO LATE WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE PRECISE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK IN LATTER FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREAS THAT MAY RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LAFAYETTE AND KOKOMO AREAS. FURTHERMORE...STRONG WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. VERY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z IWX WRF... 0z LSX WRF looks hot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichMedic Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Man....you guys are killing me...once I think I've caught up on one thread we have a new one... ENJOY the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z IWX WRF... 0z LSX WRF looks hot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Final call imby 8-14". for fun: DTW: 8-14" (thinking the dryslot plays havoc) ORD: 16-22" MKE: 10-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like LAF should still score well.. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1020 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 INZ021-028>031-035>038-011100- CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY- BOONE-TIPTON- 1020 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW OR SLEET WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO LATE WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE PRECISE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK IN LATTER FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREAS THAT MAY RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LAFAYETTE AND KOKOMO AREAS. FURTHERMORE...STRONG WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. VERY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO. You should've bolded the paragraph above that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ohhh, a scosh more QPF for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z IWX WRF... 0z LSX WRF looks hot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z Ukie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z IWX WRF... 0z LSX WRF looks hot too. What a tight gradient on snowfalls in Southern Wisconsin. I can't even tell whether I have under 1 inch of precip or 1.25 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Final call imby 8-14". for fun: DTW: 8-14" (thinking the dryslot plays havoc) ORD: 16-22" MKE: 10-18" Think it will stay SE of us....will match your DTW call with 12-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Start watching at :20 and again at 1:35 for the lightning/thunder...thundersleet in Norman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Reports of power outages in Vigo and Vermillion Counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nice, .7-.8 qpf here on the wrf, while 30 miles north has .1 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like LAF should still score well.. lol, no chance. Me thinks we'll be lucky to see 6" of snow when all is said and done. Sleet be the winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Given the trends, RUC, RGEM, UK, and mesoscale guidance--I have to believe HPC disco will mention some either initialization errors or convective feedback errors. GFS looks awful from 6-12 hours in the height field. Looks like strong feedback to the dynamic fields and slow development as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm not sure whether to be worried about a sleet fest followed by a dry slot or it being weaker and further east. I will go with 8-10" in LAF, 10-14" in DeMotte. The chance of seeing 12" is still "ok" up in my home town, so I think I will still make the trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 You should've bolded the paragraph above that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z IWX WRF... 0z LSX WRF looks hot too. A couple of highlight frames... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 lol, no chance. Me thinks we'll be lucky to see 6" of snow when all is said and done. Sleet be the winner. There's a surprise response from you.. Tomorrow should be quite an interesting day, tonight was a start I guess. Nice inch of sleet on top of some ice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Think it will stay SE of us....will match your DTW call with 12-16. Lot of talk about the more wrapped up solutions being more accurate. RGEM seems to be the exemplar of that group, and for a couple of runs it's been trying to get the mid level slot all the way to Port Huron. Don't think it'll go that far, but I'd be concerned in the four southern counties of SE MI. Might stay south but it's why I'm going conservative for Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Given the trends, RUC, RGEM, UK, and mesoscale guidance--I have to believe HPC disco will mention some either initialization errors or convective feedback errors. GFS looks awful from 6-12 hours in the height field. Looks like strong feedback to the dynamic fields and slow development as a result. GGEM @ 24 = 997 over or near Missouri bootheel. 12z run had a 996 in same vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Moderate blowing snow in Edmond. I was expecting to start off as IP, but straight snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 2 local mets on the 10 news didn't even give totals for tomorrow night just siad blizzard possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 There's a surprise response from you.. Tomorrow should be quite an interesting day, tonight was a start I guess. Nice inch of sleet on top of some ice.. Touche. Regardless, the two models that bring any snow here have been throughly debunked. Plus WAA has been pretty effective with the frontrunner. I assume that continues with the main energy. Ping, ping, ping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Euro has had some run to run consistency with taking a surface low toward LAF. Given the trends so far upstream, I'm not inclined to doubt something close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Touche. Regardless, the two models that bring any snow here have been throughly debunked. Plus WAA has been pretty effective with the frontrunner. I assume that continues with the main energy. Ping, ping, ping... Shhhhhhhhhhh... I really think LAF has a 80% chance of getting 6"+ of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Touche. Regardless, the two models that bring any snow here have been throughly debunked. Plus WAA has been pretty effective with the frontrunner. I assume that continues with the main energy. Ping, ping, ping... Well, I hope you get the snow.. Because if you don't then more than likely means I will get the boobie prize "rain that freezes on contact". Temp up to 27 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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