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Upstate NY / North Country Thread Fall 2010

NYWx

By NYWx,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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ontario squalls

ontario squalls

Posted
Posted

I can tell yall, we down here are monitoring closely the Lake Effect potential. We've set our sights on doing another chase up that way. Looks like this is the place to be for some more detailed info on the potential. Great thread guys.

Would love to have you back in Pulaski!!!

Only thing that beats 5"/ hr is 3"'/hr over 18 straight hours. :)

or

15"/day for 10 straight days.

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ontario squalls

ontario squalls

Posted
Posted

The pattern next week definitely looks interesting. The Euro and GFS are pretty much in agreement on how the storm will move next week. This Low will pull the first real Arctic air outbreak of the season. As the Arctic air crosses the warm waters of the Great Lakes ..(At last check the water temp in Erie was 49 F and in Ontario it was 46 F).. It will start up the LES machine in a big way. Right now, it looks like the lake effect bands will start in earnest Friday with a WSW trajectory, then the flow will shift to a more to a W to WNW trajectory by Saturday. It's too early to talk amounts. But I think some areas leeward of the of the Great Lakes could be measuring their snow in feet when all is said and done. :thumbsup::snowman:

Water temp in Ontario is 51.:thumbsup:

Buoy 45012

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CNYWeather

CNYWeather

Posted
Posted

177 from Adams through Barnes Corners to Lowville is funner! ;)

Lake Erie, this time of year competes very well for snowfall rates with L. Ontario....However, you give me a 3 lake connection pointed right at the Tug with delta's over 23-25....and it'd be hard to not take that trip!

And that is not taking anything away from the southtowns of Buffalo.....I've seen good 5"/hr. stuff there before!

177, I can just imagine. I got caught on 12 and 26 a couple times over the past few years when she was afraid to drive back to Potsdam LOL

1 more chance 'cause she graduates on the 5th. After that I'm ready to go chase. drunk.gif

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Tornado Girl

Tornado Girl

Posted
Posted

177 from Adams through Barnes Corners to Lowville is funner! ;)

Lake Erie, this time of year competes very well for snowfall rates with L. Ontario....However, you give me a 3 lake connection pointed right at the Tug with delta's over 23-25....and it'd be hard to not take that trip!

And that is not taking anything away from the southtowns of Buffalo.....I've seen good 5"/hr. stuff there before!

During the Feb 3-12, 2007 Lake Effect event some places on the Tug saw snowfall rates of up to 8" per hour. It was something to see.

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danno

danno

Posted
Posted

You want good Lake Effect? I'll take you up for a drive up Rt. 26 through Lowville and Turin on a good day.

Did that a couple times taking my daughter back to school. Never again.

AGREED - Rte. 26 is absolutely brutal with a west wind - all open fields on the west side of the road blowing snow across. Road, what road? Which is what makes SnowRidge the pow capital of the East!

Another great road - Osceola to West Leyden. Forgetabout it! One of the few rural roads over/through the TUG that is kept open in the winter. The whole 15 miles stays close to the 2000' elevation. Also runs E/W like 177 but I gotta say Barnes Corners sees more intense snow than Lowville.

SWA - are we finally going to meet? I'll be up in Redfield from next wednesday for thanksgiving right through 12/5 for fishing and some work on the trails.

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CNY Mike

CNY Mike

Posted
Posted

The SNE thread has their GTG's. We should have one ourselves! Tie it into an LES, chase perhaps? If we evr do one though I won't be the driver! :arrowhead::P:bike:

I like the idea. It would be nice to have later in the winter...

Euro LOVES CNYMike and Tornado Girl! Another run indicating a great start to winter in the S. towns of Buf and the Tug Hill area! L. temp and 850's would have delta's around -23C or so!!

101119195149.gif

:snowman::snowman::snowman: That is an IMPRESSIVE shot of cold air! Looks like an interesting drive to Lowville Friday morning...

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

I like the idea. It would be nice to have later in the winter...

:snowman::snowman::snowman: That is an IMPRESSIVE shot of cold air! Looks like an interesting drive to Lowville Friday morning...

Though the models get there a little differently, GFS is similar in depiction for the Black Friday crowds of the Tug! ;)

gfs_850_168s.gif

And a good amount of moisture to help seed the activity at h700:

gfs_700_168s.gif

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted

Well, it doesn't appear to be a long lived event, per the Euro....The GFS keeps us in a cold cyclonic flow for days.....Potentially this is chaseable....7days out scares me a bit to go all in.......

George,

I'm not so sure that the EC is shortlived. Did you check see the extended EC? Looks like it goes well into Sunday (starting FRI) for ART to the Tug. (At least that's how I see it). Could be wrong though. Don't get much LES in ENY.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

what is the wind direction on that run LEK?:snowman:

For the 12z GFS?? Probably 5 degrees either side of 280 (WNW) for the mean flow off Ontario...and a bit more like 285-290 off Erie.....BUT that is just for Fri morn....I suspect quite a bit of shifting of any band, as is usually the case in the late fall...especially with so much land instability and extreme lake instabilities around during the day....kind of messes with the "smoothness" of the inflow channels into one BIG band....and usually lets the "have nots" get into scrap collecting.

Again, however, 7 days out.....we are only in model world right now.....LES is practically unpredictable in placement and intensity this far out....

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

George,

I'm not so sure that the EC is shortlived. Did you check see the extended EC? Looks like it goes well into Sunday (starting FRI) for ART to the Tug. (At least that's how I see it). Could be wrong though. Don't get much LES in ENY.

Euro looks to move another wave through later in the weekend, which causes the 850 ridge axis to shift over Upstate on Sat., before being squashed. (Or it appears so on the not so easy to decipher 24 hr. Euro panels) May rejuvinate on Sun. via a (guessing) 240 or 250 wind flow.

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ayuud

ayuud

Posted
Posted

Henry M blog "Friday and Saturday next week, the lake-effect snows will be massive across the Great Lakes. I think given the temperature of the lakes and how cold the air mass will be, some places will pick up a couple of feet of snow. The real danger will be in Buffalo if winds go around southwest and bring the lake bands into the city. I will have more on that next week.":arrowhead:

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Couchsachraga

Couchsachraga

Posted
Posted

Andy,

THANK YOU for updating your blog - I keep you on the "link bar" right next to this site - I check them out too much to be a standard bookmark thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Are you updating both of your blogs these days, or just focusing on one?

I'm looking forward to next week... even this weekend in the Adirondacks will be a nice change of pace to get the ground frozen (a little, before next week's "warm up").

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

NWS in Alb

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE

ENSEMBLE AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON WHAT OCCURS ACROSS THE

NORTHEAST. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OCCURS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH

A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM. THE GFS WOULD HAVE A

SERIES OF WEAK SFC WAVES PASS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH

PERHAPS SOME CHANCES OF SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TURKEY

DAY. THE ECMWF INTENSIFIES A WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT

LAKES REGION INTO ONTARIO /987 HPA CYCLONE/...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT

WHIPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON THE HOLIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME

WEAK SECONDARY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT TOO...TRANSITIONING THE RAIN TO

SNOW BRIEFLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WITH

SOME MUCH UNCERTAINTY...WE STUCK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS /OR SNOW

SHOWERS WHEN THE TEMPS COOL TO 32-35..

QUOTETHURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN AN IMPRESSIVE

COLD ADVECTION REGIME WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY

KICK OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF KALB. H850 TEMPS

FALL TO -9C AT KALB. A BLUSTERY AND COLD BLACK FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT

WILL BE IN THE CARDS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO L40S IN THE

VALLEYS...AND U20S TO M30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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