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Upstate NY / North Country Thread Fall 2010

NYWx

By NYWx,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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CCPSUSuperstorm2010

CCPSUSuperstorm2010

Posted
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KBUF metro and Watertown, NY regions in the lee of the lakes southwest winds are favored for a potential intense LE event come Black Friday. Modeled 850mb temperatures approach -10 to -14C among a southwest 850mb flow and water temperatures in Lake Erie are still hovering around 10-12C. 12z EURO verified, the only thing keeping an intense organized band together would be the intense 850mb winds the model has projected near 50-60 knots on Friday. Very intense surface low cyclogenesis within the 12z model consensus. Still some time to get the details down, but the signal is getting stronger for a LES event.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
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I know it's really early yet to be looking at snow for Thanksgiving,but i cannot help but think that it's looking like this year is taking off where last year left off.Too warm and a good storm is a rain out,and after it's over, it gets cold but dry.I would love to get my truck and plow ready with but, It I just cant justify it with this pattern yet. Here is to hoping for some good solid cash flow for Christmas(plowable snow events).

I think you'll be fine this year...La Niña winters usually feature an active northern stream with lots of clippers and smaller storms, which helps to get the lakes brewing. Also, the pattern so far suggests we'll have some blocking forming on the Atlantic side (-NAO) which means that a trough should always be nearby. Canada is looking much colder than last year, with some -30C temperatures at 850mb associated with the polar vortex up there; snow cover is also pretty high on the Canadian side....I wouldn't be too worried about overwhelming warmth which is the problem with a strong El Niño last year which torched Canada and weakened the northern stream. Different story this time around.

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Andyace

Andyace

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I updated my blog at My Blog In this update I give a bit more of an in depth discussion on the weather dilemma that may confront us next week during the holiday period and weekend that follows. Hopefully later today I can add some more to it or give another update.

I added it to my favorites, now I have another fix for my winter weather obsession.

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CNYWeather

CNYWeather

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I updated my blog at My Blog In this update I give a bit more of an in depth discussion on the weather dilemma that may confront us next week during the holiday period and weekend that follows. Hopefully later today I can add some more to it or give another update.

I've also bookmarked it. Lots of good information.

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Pville

Pville

Posted
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Hi Andy

Just bookmarked it. Finally my registration transfer from easternwx went through with "dendrite's" help.

I updated my blog at My Blog In this update I give a bit more of an in depth discussion on the weather dilemma that may confront us next week during the holiday period and weekend that follows. Hopefully later today I can add some more to it or give another update.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
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jealous

What I would do for that... 24-48 inches of snow in the next 4 days. :snowman:

That makes me want snow next week even worse and the fact that it may not become a great possibility next week is making me very anxious. The models seem to be backing off the cold and snow. someone mentioned earlier that the GFS tends to have a good dose of cold and snw past 180 hours out then when we get within 180 hours to about 120 hours or so it backs off , and then within 120 hours it brings back the cold and snow. So I'm hoping this is what will happen =\

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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I can tell yall, we down here are monitoring closely the Lake Effect potential. We've set our sights on doing another chase up that way. Looks like this is the place to be for some more detailed info on the potential. Great thread guys.

Hey man come to Perrysburg,NY they also get hammered on lake effect events since they can benefit from WSW,W,WNW,NW, and even N winds.

On another note imagine this in the forecast for here. Can you imagine the city of Buffalo if we got 5-10 feet of snow in 4 days? I'm really considering going on a trip to one of these mountain spots when I get my own car.

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CNYWeather

CNYWeather

Posted
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I can tell yall, we down here are monitoring closely the Lake Effect potential. We've set our sights on doing another chase up that way. Looks like this is the place to be for some more detailed info on the potential. Great thread guys.

You want good Lake Effect? I'll take you up for a drive up Rt. 26 through Lowville and Turin on a good day.

Did that a couple times taking my daughter back to school. Never again.

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FEFD17

FEFD17

Posted
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Hi FEFD

My snow stakes went up at my customers homes/businesses today. Plow is serviced and ready to go.

Now it is just a matter of keeping my computer set to this site and watch. White gold is not far away. Good luck this season!

As always ... thanks to all for the info and conversation you provide.

Hey there Landscaper! good to talk to you to! I just went over to Andy's blog.It looks like I may now get the plow out of storage for Thanksgiving/Friday.---IF--- the low "slows" or "stalls",we may be in for an extra treat.

Andy great blog spot! It's in my favorites,and I really enjoy reading what I call "the easy way out" of forecasting!LOL Here is to hoping for a good event!!!

TO EVERYONE!!! I know some will be traveling,or busy with everything,but HAPPY THANKSGIVING to everyone!

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

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You want good Lake Effect? I'll take you up for a drive up Rt. 26 through Lowville and Turin on a good day.

Did that a couple times taking my daughter back to school. Never again.

177 from Adams through Barnes Corners to Lowville is funner! ;)

Lake Erie, this time of year competes very well for snowfall rates with L. Ontario....However, you give me a 3 lake connection pointed right at the Tug with delta's over 23-25....and it'd be hard to not take that trip!

And that is not taking anything away from the southtowns of Buffalo.....I've seen good 5"/hr. stuff there before!

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Tornado Girl

Tornado Girl

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Posted

The pattern next week definitely looks interesting. The Euro and GFS are pretty much in agreement on how the storm will move next week. This Low will pull the first real Arctic air outbreak of the season. As the Arctic air crosses the warm waters of the Great Lakes ..(At last check the water temp in Erie was 49 F and in Ontario it was 46 F).. It will start up the LES machine in a big way. Right now, it looks like the lake effect bands will start in earnest Friday with a WSW trajectory, then the flow will shift to a more to a W to WNW trajectory by Saturday. It's too early to talk amounts. But I think some areas leeward of the of the Great Lakes could be measuring their snow in feet when all is said and done. :thumbsup::snowman:

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