LakeEffectKing Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Looks a bit breezy, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Your were saying............... 12Z: I've heard that the GFS often does quite well during La Nina years, so here's hoping it's right and the Euro is wrong. I'm hoping that there isn't any freezing rain around my neck of the woods this Sunday evening as I've got a get together planned with some people driving in from out of town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Looks a bit breezy, too. Just a little bit lol. Raleigh's site has 75 kt 850mb LLJ from the southwest in the cold air behind the low...major wind event if that verified. Too much wind shear and not enough residence time that close to the low...I think it would lead to a spray of snow showers and squalls...with blizzard conditions within. Similar to the January 2007 wind storm? edit: January 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 <br />Looks a bit breezy, too.<br /><br /><br /><br />Can you say lake effect for BUF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 <br /><br /><br />Can you say lake effect for BUF? It's not that good for a classic BUF lake-effect event for reasons I posted above. Specifically the Euro set-up at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I'll be making my first trip up to Redfield Dec. 1 - 4. Looks like I need to go a few days early. Good to see cold on the horizon though. Anyone know if Ty has found his way to the page yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 That'd be Nick..... lol sorry got confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 So anyone apply for that NWS Buffalo intern position that's been advertised the past few weeks? I threw my hat in the ring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Your were saying............... 12Z: FWIIW That looks like the typical GFS average position of multiple LPs to me. I would envision one near Massena, another on the warm front and quite possibly yet a 3rd at the TP. I also think there will yet another LP development over the Mid or Lower MS Valley on the TG weekend like the EC is showing however unlike the EC I can see both a stronger low along with more of western track from the SEUS to Cape Cod, especially if the TGD low slows over QUE and even retrogrades a bit. Also interesting to note that the ensembles as well as the EC ops continue to show a very good "cold-air damming" (CAD) signature across Upstate NY for next Wed (night) and TGD. To be continued.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Heavy sleet and graupel about 10 minutes ago that accumulated a bit on roofs and our deck. 38F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 It's not that good for a classic BUF lake-effect event for reasons I posted above. Specifically the Euro set-up at least. Not during that Euro panel....but 12 hours or so later, I bet there is better alignment, deeper cold air, and a slackening of the pressure gradient..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 So anyone apply for that NWS Buffalo intern position that's been advertised the past few weeks? I threw my hat in the ring. 15 years ago, I would have in a heart beat!! Now? Too good a thing going!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 So anyone apply for that NWS Buffalo intern position that's been advertised the past few weeks? I threw my hat in the ring. Good luck to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Not during that Euro panel....but 12 hours or so later, I bet there is better alignment, deeper cold air, and a slackening of the pressure gradient..... hmm...yes good point. The general track of the low to the northeast would suggest a veering of the wind between the 192 and 216 hour panel...providing a short period of time for a favorable LES set-up for BUF. I guess it is pretty ridiculous to discuss exact wind set-ups in the 8-9 day range lol. Suffice to say...it appears that it will become quite wintry around and past Thanksgiving...with the potential for heavy LES somewhere downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Good luck to you! thanks Andy! I'm leaving Bermuda for good on Dec. 11th..my work permit has expired. I'm going to live with Amy in Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 thanks Andy! I'm leaving Bermuda for good on Dec. 11th..my work permit has expired. I'm going to live with Amy in Mass. So you're being deported? ;-) Try and sneak one of those weather work stations out with you too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 So anyone apply for that NWS Buffalo intern position that's been advertised the past few weeks? I threw my hat in the ring. what are the requirments? i've seen it online while searching some interns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 what are the requirments? i've seen it online while searching some interns oh...even though it's called an intern position..it's a full meteorologist position. It's where you make your start in the NWS most of the time. You need to have a B.S. in Meteorology or Atmospheric Science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I know it's really early yet to be looking at snow for Thanksgiving,but i cannot help but think that it's looking like this year is taking off where last year left off.Too warm and a good storm is a rain out,and after it's over, it gets cold but dry.I would love to get my truck and plow ready with but, It I just cant justify it with this pattern yet. Here is to hoping for some good solid cash flow for Christmas(plowable snow events). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landscaper Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I know it's really early yet to be looking at snow for Thanksgiving,but i cannot help but think that it's looking like this year is taking off where last year left off.Too warm and a good storm is a rain out,and after it's over, it gets cold but dry.I would love to get my truck and plow ready with but, It I just cant justify it with this pattern yet. Here is to hoping for some good solid cash flow for Christmas(plowable snow events). Hi FEFD My snow stakes went up at my customers homes/businesses today. Plow is serviced and ready to go. Now it is just a matter of keeping my computer set to this site and watch. White gold is not far away. Good luck this season! As always ... thanks to all for the info and conversation you provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I wanna do some LES chasing on Black Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I know it's really early yet to be looking at snow for Thanksgiving,but i cannot help but think that it's looking like this year is taking off where last year left off.Too warm and a good storm is a rain out,and after it's over, it gets cold but dry.I would love to get my truck and plow ready with but, It I just cant justify it with this pattern yet. Here is to hoping for some good solid cash flow for Christmas(plowable snow events). Western runners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 If the euro has anything to say about it, I will have a nice "welcome back to Western NY" present when I'm home for Thanksgiving next week!! As others have mentioned, that is a pretty extreme high wind scenario...initially in the higher terrain and along the Chautauqua County shoreline on Thanksgiving, then becoming widespread across all of WNY from Thanksgiving night into Black Friday. It reminds me of the storm that occurred last December 9th when my home wx station registered a gust to 68 mph....although I think the projected storm on the euro may even be a tad deeper! I definitely concur with Nick's concern about high winds diminishing the potential for organized lake bands, but I still managed to pull off a 17" storm (including 7.5" in 2 hours) with winds gusting over 50 mph last December so it can definitely still happen. I think there would still be some 12"+ snowfall amounts in the Boston Hills by Saturday morning if the euro solution verifies, even with the high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 What does it show for the flow of of Ontario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY Mike Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Snowing at a pretty good clip up in Turin. Periods of giant flakes coming down heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Snowing at a pretty good clip up in Turin. Periods of giant flakes coming down heavy. Lucky dog!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Snowing at a pretty good clip up in Turin. Periods of giant flakes coming down heavy. lucky. All I got today was a 2 minute downpour with some graupel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 What does it show for the flow of of Ontario? Really still in fantasy land this far out.....but.......Verbatum, north of you for a bit....sagging south, and then ending rather quickly (12 hours or so)....but still so much time between now and then......LES is fickle enough with 3 day lead times, let alone 8-10 days out!! Just potential...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I will be happy just to turn the ground white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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