Tornado Girl Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I see the models are bringing -10C 850 over the Tug areas tomorrow into Friday of this week. I haven't heard much talk of it so I guess there must be mitigating factors to any LES. There looks to be quite a bit of shear also the flow won't be quite right for a big LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Yes, TG....BUT, this time of year as the jet increases it's speed and tightens it's wavelengths, 10 day individual progs should certainly be used with most caution....even if one flavor is pounding with consistency....Case in point, the wide difference between the Euro and GFS 7-10 day mean h500 progs: Very true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 The 18z GFS would appear to give Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal a snowstorm on American Thanksgiving followed by a shot of arctic air. Things are looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Exciting time of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY Mike Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Exciting time of the year! You know it! I feel we're overdue for a good quality snow. I wouldn't mind driving through a good storm to get to Walmart next Friday. Personally, I'm going to be looking for hard-core consistency between the models for the next few runs before getting excited. We are still talking over a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 You know it! I feel we're overdue for a good quality snow. I wouldn't mind driving through a good storm to get to Walmart next Friday. Personally, I'm going to be looking for hard-core consistency between the models for the next few runs before getting excited. We are still talking over a week away. If the models don't flip by Friday...I think were on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY Mike Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 If the models don't flip by Friday...I think were on to something. I'm with you on that one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY Mike Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 00z GFS has the low up in Canada bombing out, pushing our storm out to sea... On the bright side, the ensembles are looking reasonable for LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 NCEP website is so dam slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 The wavelengths are absolutely perfect ~ Thanksgiving. A beautiful western ridge, strong -NAO and the motherload dropping down into southern Canada. Perhaps a Thanksgiving Buffalo massacre? You don't need me to say it again but the LES potential is just....wow. HM on board (from the pinned usedtobe thread on the main forum). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 DT's latest update THIS WEEK'S TOPICS: WHY certain meteorologists that have been calling for the mean trough position to set up over the eastern Conus has busted so badly... WHY the cold (sustained cold) is NOT coming to the eastern US until something DEC 4-6 if then WHY the cold pattern is going to stay over western Canada into the Pacific NW / into CALIF and the Great Basin WHY the snow cover in this new pattern will make up over Canada and Siberia for lost ground over the past 7 days WHY even thought we have a MASSIVE -NAO and strong classic 50/50 Low... the cold over western US is not coming east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I agree...but it is looking good. Looking at the 06z GEFS ensemble data for 925 and 850 winds and the GEF ensemble mean 850T data it looks like later TGD into "Black Friday" could produce a nice LES event off of both LE and LO (especially the latter lake snow belts). The CMCEPS is also supportive for this scenario too. It is also hinting at possible wave development on stalling polar front over SEUS, lifting the wave with modest deepening to near CC or MVY by 12z Friday 11/26. I see that e-wall now has ECMWF output online thru 240 hrs: EC thru 240 hours on e-wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 This looks pretty (so far away) but impressive nonetheless: Tug Hill Special perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 DT's latest update THIS WEEK'S TOPICS: WHY certain meteorologists that have been calling for the mean trough position to set up over the eastern Conus has busted so badly... WHY the cold (sustained cold) is NOT coming to the eastern US until something DEC 4-6 if then WHY the cold pattern is going to stay over western Canada into the Pacific NW / into CALIF and the Great Basin WHY the snow cover in this new pattern will make up over Canada and Siberia for lost ground over the past 7 days WHY even thought we have a MASSIVE -NAO and strong classic 50/50 Low... the cold over western US is not coming east. he may have a point. The latest runs of the GFS seem to have backed off from the big snowstorm on Thanksgiving for NNY, E Ontario, and the cold doesn't look as impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Then it will end up nothng happens until 12/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 he may have a point. The latest runs of the GFS seem to have backed off from the big snowstorm on Thanksgiving for NNY, E Ontario, and the cold doesn't look as impressive. dont expect anything at this point, until we have an agreed upon, IN SIGHT pattern change. its a wait and see game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Then it will end up nothng happens until 12/10 Have Faith! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 he may have a point. The latest runs of the GFS seem to have backed off from the big snowstorm on Thanksgiving for NNY, E Ontario, and the cold doesn't look as impressive. Your were saying............... 12Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 right on cue, hah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I am sucked in - lets see what Dr. No says.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY Mike Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 12Z looks impressive for the Thanksgiving Day storm, followed by lake effect into Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 for some reason gfs tries to stall this low for couple days after black friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I'm becoming more convinced that a LES event will occur next week. While it is true It is too early to know for sure; things are looking good for the first LES outbreak This season. It still looks like a Low will dive over the upper Lakes into Canada on Monday. The resulting cold front will pull down tons of cold air and set the stage for what's to come. Later in the week a storm will develop over Texas along a warm front. Due to the High heat and Humidly levels on the southern side of the front and the extreme cold air in place on the fronts northern side; a severe weather outbreak is a good bet next Wednesday. As this marches east It should set the Lakes off with quite a bit of LES. Most likely starting Thanksgiving day on the Upper Lakes and Impacting our area Friday thru Saturday. Wx4cast and Lake Effect King are showing the Models are starting to come into agreement. As always this is going to come down to timing...put like I said things are looking good right now....Keep your fingers crossed if you like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 for some reason gfs tries to stall this low for couple days after black friday Andy and I were discussing that possibility yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Well, I got very lucky this morning! I haven't been on any weather blogs or forums in many months, because I lose interest during the non-snow season. This morning I thought I'd actually start poking around a bit. I stumbled upon a reference to Eastern closing on a Winter 2010-2011 Outlook blog entry on a Utica TV station website. A little further searching led me to an entry on another blog indicating that many of the Eastern folks were migrating to American. Well, I'm very happy to find many of the familiar posters are here! Greeting from "up on the hill" in Delanson in western Schenectady County! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Well, I got very lucky this morning! I haven't been on any weather blogs or forums in many months, because I lose interest during the non-snow season. This morning I thought I'd actually start poking around a bit. I stumbled upon a reference to Eastern closing on a Winter 2010-2011 Outlook blog entry on a Utica TV station website. A little further searching led me to an entry on another blog indicating that many of the Eastern folks were migrating to American. Well, I'm very happy to find many of the familiar posters are here! Greeting from "up on the hill" in Delanson in western Schenectady County! Another one crawling back from under the rubble!! Glad you solved the puzzle to find our new home!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 BUF would probably get a good wallop of LES if 12z Euro verified.......BTW....much colder this run post passage of synoptic system. Turkey day rainstorm for all of Upstate NY/PA E. Ontario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 justin is back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 justin is back? That'd be Nick..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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