Logan11 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 The winds are ripping here now. They picked up suddenly about 30 minutes ago. 49F outside..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 The winds are ripping here now. They picked up suddenly about 30 minutes ago. 49F outside..... I just got back from lunch and it's starting to get pretty windy out here as well. Hopefull it will pull the rest of the leaves off the stubborn maple tree in my back yard. I'd like to finally be done with yard work for the year. I see the 12z GFS brings back our Thanksgiving/Black Friday snow storm. It will probably be gone again on the 18z runs, but it's nice to watch the situation evolve. It's still too early in the season to get worked up about snow events that don't come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Finally picking up in Westmo now also. 37mph gust so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 that was a lot of rain last night. it actually woke me up at night, the rain of the roof, which is usually the opposite.....but it was so loud for so unusually long, like an extra-long t-storm, that the noise woke me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I want to here snow falling from my roof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I want to here snow falling from my roof I think shortly after Turkey day, you may well get your wish.....especially if the progged flow continues to show a W or WSW mean flow. I'm gaining more confidence that the LES season is going to start out with a bang for areas including and adjacent to the Tug Hill region... Just check the radar now with 0 degree C air crossing L. Ontario (with uplift) and imagine what -15C air will do the weekend after T-day!!!!! Many runs now in a row depicting this abrupt scenario for Black Friday and beyond! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I think shortly after Turkey day, you may well get your wish.....especially if the progged flow continues to show a W or WSW mean flow. I'm gaining more confidence that the LES season is going to start out with a bang for areas including and adjacent to the Tug Hill region... Just check the radar now with 0 degree C air crossing L. Ontario (with uplift) and imagine what -15C air will do the weekend after T-day!!!!! Many runs now in a row depicting this abrupt scenario for Black Friday and beyond! I'll be in West Seneca/Orchard Park from Tusday of next week untill Thanksgiving night and then I'll be in Perrysburg untill Friday night, so hopefully I'll be able to see some good lake effect in West Seneca/OP or in Perrysburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I think shortly after Turkey day, you may well get your wish.....especially if the progged flow continues to show a W or WSW mean flow. I'm gaining more confidence that the LES season is going to start out with a bang for areas including and adjacent to the Tug Hill region... Just check the radar now with 0 degree C air crossing L. Ontario (with uplift) and imagine what -15C air will do the weekend after T-day!!!!! Many runs now in a row depicting this abrupt scenario for Black Friday and beyond! I am in Forestport, we usually get some decent lake effect snow at a 280 flow or so, usually does not set up here but we get some decent accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 any chance we see LES here in the metro late next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 nice wsw flow if this verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I think shortly after Turkey day, you may well get your wish.....especially if the progged flow continues to show a W or WSW mean flow. I'm gaining more confidence that the LES season is going to start out with a bang for areas including and adjacent to the Tug Hill region... Just check the radar now with 0 degree C air crossing L. Ontario (with uplift) and imagine what -15C air will do the weekend after T-day!!!!! Many runs now in a row depicting this abrupt scenario for Black Friday and beyond! Other wise doesn't it look dry thanksgiving week?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 18z op gfs has a nice synoptic system bringing a good 1-3 inch dump to WNY on Thanksgiving evening. After that it has tons of lak effect setting up with 850s dropping to -15 with lake temps at 8c. That equals delta t's of 23c! Winds looking to be between W and wsw which would mean a long fetch over Erie and Ontario. Highs during this period look to struggle to get above freezing with low temps in the teens and twenties. Cpc gives us a 40-50 percent chance for below normal temps in the 6-10 day and 8-14 day range. Met Don Paul from channel 4 says he has at least a 3/5 chance for colder weather starting around thanksgiving. So now we really need to watch precip to see who/how much snow we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Nice! I wouldn't too get hyped up about synoptic storms untill we get within 5 days of it. Keep looking at the overall pattern the gfs is trying to show which right now is a cold shot starting around thansgiving. Lake effect looks like a sure bet late next week somewhere in upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I see the models are bringing -10C 850 over the Tug areas tomorrow into Friday of this week. I haven't heard much talk of it so I guess there must be mitigating factors to any LES. I wouldn't too get hyped up about synoptic storms untill we get within 5 days of it. Keep looking at the overall pattern the gfs is trying to show which right now is a cold shot starting around thansgiving. Lake effect looks like a sure bet late next week somewhere in upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I wouldn't too get hyped up about synoptic storms untill we get within 5 days of it. Keep looking at the overall pattern the gfs is trying to show which right now is a cold shot starting around thansgiving. Lake effect looks like a sure bet late next week somewhere in upstate. One thing to note, however is that the Euro isn't as great of a setup for extreme instability (-6 to -8 at 850), and the flow is much more SW'erly (possibly ART, IAG????) But still a L O N G way out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I wouldn't too get hyped up about synoptic storms untill we get within 5 days of it. Keep looking at the overall pattern the gfs is trying to show which right now is a cold shot starting around thansgiving. Lake effect looks like a sure bet late next week somewhere in upstate. I get half my total from lake effect, if I relied on synoptic I would be S.O.L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Some nice cold air building on our side of the globe. I'm not sure how this relates to normal, but -29 seems pretty low for this time of year. November 17, 2010 weather report for RESOLUTE, NUNAVUT, CANADA Weather report as of 24 minutes ago (00:00 UTC): The wind was calm in Resolute, Canada. The temperature was -34 degrees Celsius (-29 degrees Fahrenheit). Air pressure was 1,015 hPa (29.97 inHg). Relative humidity was 60.2%. There were overcast at a height of 518 meters (1700 feet). The visibility was 6.4 kilometers (4.0 miles). Current weather is Moderate Ice Crystals . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I get half my total from lake effect, if I relied on synoptic I would be S.O.L. I perfer lake effect myself. I just love the range of conditions that can happen within and outside of lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Brrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 18z op gfs has a nice synoptic system bringing a good 1-3 inch dump to WNY on Thanksgiving evening. After that it has tons of lak effect setting up with 850s dropping to -15 with lake temps at 8c. That equals delta t's of 23c! Winds looking to be between W and wsw which would mean a long fetch over Erie and Ontario. Highs during this period look to struggle to get above freezing with low temps in the teens and twenties. Cpc gives us a 40-50 percent chance for below normal temps in the 6-10 day and 8-14 day range. Met Don Paul from channel 4 says he has at least a 3/5 chance for colder weather starting around thanksgiving. So now we really need to watch precip to see who/how much snow we get. 850mb flow keeps a slight northerly component in the flow through hour 300...not important now, though. Probably one of those events that start in the BUF area and move south as I wet myself over whether or not it will go south enough. RN and +RN courtesy of Lake Erie...maybe some sleet/graupel mixing in: A few flakes might have mixed in at about 1:30 today...I didn't get a good look, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I perfer lake effect myself. I just love the range of conditions that can happen within and outside of lake effect. Ya Tug Hill is amazing, but if you get caught in a whiteout at night on a sled or in a vehicle it is rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Brrrrr let's hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 One thing to note, however is that the Euro isn't as great of a setup for extreme instability (-6 to -8 at 850), and the flow is much more SW'erly (possibly ART, IAG????) But still a L O N G way out..... Right now, it looks like the Thanksgiving day storm will be a western runner, the mid-level center should pass just to our Northwest. If there is any LES I think areas just south of ART will be the bullseye...but anywhere in Northern Oswego, Northern and Central Lewis and southern Jefferson Counties has a shot at quite a bit of snow. It's to early to know for sure...but things are looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 My highest gust was 50 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Just south of ART will be the bullseye...but anywhere in Oswego, Northern and Central Lewis and southern Jefferson has a shot at quite a bit of snow. It's to early to know for sure...but things are looking good. I can't remember the last time we had a prolonged WSW or SW lake effect event. Getting real excited. Just gotta keep it under control since it's still 8 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I can't remember the last time we had a prolonged WSW or SW lake effect event. Getting real excited. Just gotta keep it under control since it's still 8 days away. I agree...but it is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I agree...but it is looking good. yes, now we just need the euro to get a little colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 ... Tornado confirmed in town of Ghent Columbia County NY... ... Downburst confirmed in Claverack Columbia County NY... Location... town of Ghent... Columbia County NY date... November 17 2010 estimated time... 518 am EST maximum ef scale rating... EF1 estimated maximum wind speed... 95 mph estimated path width... 300 yards path length... 2 miles beginning lat/Lon... 42.26607/-73.66430 ending lat/Lon... 42.29003/-73.64724 *fatalities... 0 *injuries... 0 *note these numbers could change after issuance of this product ... Summary... National Weather Service storm survey team confirmed an EF1 tornado in town of Ghent. Although path length is two miles... damage was intermittent a long the line. Most concentrated damage was observed at intersection of soller heights Road and County Road 9. Damage was mainly confined to downed trees... although some damage to shingles and siding were noted. Location... Claverack... Columbia County NY date... November 17 2010 estimated time... 510 am EST maximum ef scale rating... N/A estimated maximum wind speed... 85 mph estimated path width... N/A path length... N/A beginning lat/Lon... N/A ending lat/Lon... N/A *fatalities... 0 *injuries... 0 *note these numbers could change after issuance of this product ... Summary... National Weather Service storm survey team confirmed a downburst in Claverack. Damage was mainly confined to downed trees. Wind speeds were estimated at 85 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I agree...but it is looking good. Yes, TG....BUT, this time of year as the jet increases it's speed and tightens it's wavelengths, 10 day individual progs should certainly be used with most caution....even if one flavor is pounding with consistency....Case in point, the wide difference between the Euro and GFS 7-10 day mean h500 progs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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