Upstate NY / North Country Thread Fall 2010

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Temperature continues to fall, but I'm starting to think that it will be too late for frozen precip here. Now 40F at my place. Temperature has not fallen as rapidly as some palces further south in NYS

[Wx4cast]

You have to know its a weird pattern and event when the colder air is moving into the southern locations/latitudes before it moves into the northern ones. Here's what I mean: @ 4pm -POU 48, ALB 40 GFL A/P 56 Bennington (DDH) 57.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

You have to know its a weird pattern and event when the colder air is moving into the southern locations latitude before it moves into the northern ones. Here's what I mean. At 4pm POU 48, ALB 40 GFL A/P 56 Bnnington (DDH) 57.

Very true, but isn't "weird" the story of the weather pattern in 2010 overall? I mean, look at last winter. Who'd have thought that places like DC would see a white Christmas while Toronto had pouring rain? It's been the strangest year of weather that I can remember.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

temperature has now fallen into the upper 30s. We're getting there...

[ontario squalls]

temperature has now fallen into the upper 30s. We're getting there...

130 miles to your south its 32 with about 1 inch of snow on the ground. Synoptic precip has ended.

[Wx4cast]

Very true, but isn't "weird" the story of the weather pattern in 2010 overall? I mean, look at last winter. Who'd have thought that places like DC would see a white Christmas while Toronto had pouring rain? It's been the strangest year of weather that I can remember.

Weird wrt weather is hard to define. But yes this year has been odd. Then again one of my met profs from college said "there are no such things as normal when it comes to the atmosphere; everything is extreme and when averaged out we say its normal."

temperature has now fallen into the upper 30s. We're getting there...

It was 56 at 3pm at my house now 42 and falling fast.

[Flying MXZ]

33.9°. The precip ended as a snowshower - just enough to coat the grass.

[Avid6eek]

36.2F and the rain just changed to sleet.

[West Point, NY]

You have to know its a weird pattern and event when the colder air is moving into the southern locations/latitudes before it moves into the northern ones. Here's what I mean: @ 4pm -POU 48, ALB 40 GFL A/P 56 Bennington (DDH) 57.

At 2pm it was around 60 in ALB and 32 w/ snow in BGM

[Wx4cast]

At 2pm it was around 60 in ALB and 32 w/ snow in BGM

And Don Rickles says; "Have a cookie."

[WNYLakeEffect]

18Z GFS has an insane NW/WNW flow from late Sunday through Wednesday. It's sort of like last January, just with a 10X better flow.

[Tornado Girl]

And Don Rickles says; "Have a cookie."

LOL

[Tornado Girl]

Weird wrt weather is hard to define. But yes this year has been odd. Then again one of my met profs from college said "there are no such things as normal when it comes to the atmosphere; everything is extreme and when averaged out we say its normal."

It was 56 at 3pm at my house now 42 and falling fast.

Very true...There is no such thing as normal weather.

Take for example temperature...many people say normal when they really mean average.

Here is a link to a NOAA article where NOAA explains what they mean by normal

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s747.htm

[Logan11]

It ended as about 15 minutes of wet snow here and left a coating of slush on the deck.... That was all she wrote, but the models never really suggested the cold air could beat the moisture out of here. Now several hours later holding at 32F.

33.9°. The precip ended as a snowshower - just enough to coat the grass.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Well, the precip is over in Ottawa and, needless to say, it was bust with regard to snow. Also, if the latest GFs is anything to go by, the next few weeks look to be 2009-2010 part 2, with the the coldest temperatures relative to average being to the south.

On a more positive note: the UK has seen its earliest widespread snowfall since November 1993 while Ottawa saw a heavy rainstorm similar to this the last weekend in November 1993. Can one dare to hope and dream that a major flip to arctic, siberian cold will occur around the solstice, just like in 1993, giving a snowstorm to Ottawa/Montreal on the 19th December, followed by air temperatures down to -32 celcius and daytime highs of -26 celcius?

[Organizing Low]

well its almost retrograde season again!

[Tornado Girl]

The low that will be over New England Saturday or so. will be staying in place for awhile. So we will be in a very cold NW flow most likely from Sunday into at least Wednesday. While I don't think there will be a Strong LES band forming off of Lake Ontario, instead I think the snow will be coming down at a steady light to sometimes moderate rate which will add up by Wed into Thur. After that all eyes will turn to the possible coastal for 14th of Dec. If the Models are right it could be a very substantial storm.

[Wx4cast]

LOL

Nice 100th post! Suitable for framing.

well its almost retrograde season again!

Now all we need is another WINDEX event like last winter and it will be an awesome winter for sure.

The low that will be over New England Saturday or so. will be staying in place for awhile. So we will be in a very cold NW flow most likely from Sunday into at least Wednesday. While I don't think there will be a Strong LES band forming off of Lake Ontario, instead I think the snow will be coming down at a steady light to sometimes moderate rate which will add up by Wed into Thur. After that all eyes will turn to the possible coastal for 14th of Dec. If the Models are right it could be a very substantial storm.

Totally agree. I wouldn't be surprised if the Coastal LP came in a bit sooner than the 14th (like 2-3 days earlier perhaps).

[wolfie09]

THE OVERALL IMPACTS ON OUR AREA COULD VARY. AT A MINIMUM...A

WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH COLD AIR CONTINUOUSLY TRAVERSING THE

GREAT LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR

ENHANCED AREAS. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MAIN STORM AND

ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO AFFECT AREAS WELL TO THE NORTH...SOME

GUIDANCE INDICATING A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF POTENTIAL UPSLOPE

SNOWS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT DETAILS...AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A

DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME

MESOSCALE EFFECTS /TERRAIN AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ WHICH COULD LEAD TO

SOME DECENT SNOWS SOMEWHERE OVER THE COURSE OF 2-3 DAYS. AT THIS

POINT WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS OVER FAVORED LAKE ENHANCED/NORTHERN

AREAS...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE EVOLUTION

BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE

THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FROM

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[DeltaT13]

The Saturday to Wednesday timeframe looks absolutely fantastic. Days and days of snow showers, wind, and COLD temps. What a gorgeous setup.....I really thought that last January was a once every 10 year treat.....I'll gladly take a replay. The lakes are even warmer this time around though too.

[Stormtracker81]

nice!!

[Wx4cast]

http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off

I think ALB means the low is off the Atlantic.

Anyway it could be another Willard Mtn special like last years retro system was.

[ENYsnow]

I think ALB means the low is off the Atlantic.

Anyway it could be another Willard Mtn special like last years retro system was.

Great thats all we need ALB gets flurries while all the higher elevations get a foot. I thought we were done with that type scenario for a while lol. I remember driving back home from vermont on 1/3 and going from 2 feet of powder near bennington to an inch in ALB. this wont be anywhere near as intense as that was though.

[Wx4cast]

Great thats all we need ALB gets flurries while all the higher elevations get a foot. I thought we were done with that type scenario for a while lol. I remember driving back home from vermont on 1/3 and going from 2 feet of powder near bennington to an inch in ALB. this wont be anywhere near as intense as that was though.

More than likely not as bad like you noted BUT the duration might be a bit longer. 12z NAM was going nuts on the Taconics and Greens and the North side of Schoharie thru Schenectady Counties as well as the higher terrain of Hamilton and Warren County to the west of Lk George. I could see Warrensburg and Athol (moreso) getting thumped nicely. Actually verbatim it gave better lift and dynamics and more qp to ALB than it did to GFL.

[Logan11]

ALB itself is just a snow hole nowadays.... gypped in every which way it seems. I still recall pulling out of my 40" deep place here and driving 19 miles to near the SUNYA campus last February to see several inches of water logged snow interspersed with puddles. When I was a kid living below ALB and we always went up to Colonie Center shopping I always through it was the North Pole or something there. I guess perceptions can be a bit warped.

Great thats all we need ALB gets flurries while all the higher elevations get a foot. I thought we were done with that type scenario for a while lol. I remember driving back home from vermont on 1/3 and going from 2 feet of powder near bennington to an inch in ALB. this wont be anywhere near as intense as that was though.

[West Point, NY]

Actually verbatim it gave better lift and dynamics and more qp to ALB than it did to GFL.

Without question solely because I have tuned up/ gassed up my snow blower 2 weeks ago

[Logan11]

Hey looking at your snowfall totals.. You need this trend arrested fast! based on the slide in accumulations, you are on pace for 33 inches this year. :devilsmiley:

Without question solely because I have tuned up/ gassed up my snow blower 2 weeks ago

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Here's a December which would fit the description of cold briefly moving in, followed by blowtorch conditions, as per JB.

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=CA&StationID=4333&Year=1932&Month=12&Day=1

[ENYsnow]

ALB itself is just a snow hole nowadays.... gypped in every which way it seems. I still recall pulling out of my 40" deep place here and driving 19 miles to near the SUNYA campus last February to see several inches of water logged snow interspersed with puddles. When I was a kid living below ALB and we always went up to Colonie Center shopping I always through it was the North Pole or something there. I guess perceptions can be a bit warped.

I remember several days before that second retrograding storm in late Feb. the models were hinting that ALB would push 3 feet of snow in a 3 day period. Knew it was too good to be true but we still ended up with around 17 inches here from the first storm. Of course half of it melted the next day in a 40 degree rainstorm while 15 miles west you had a 3+ foot snowpack haha. Anyways these next storms look interesting for the higher elevations and certainly the folks in the lake effect areas.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Same weather pattern as last January seems to be setting up with Toronto forecast to be colder than Sept Iles!? The latter city is expecting rain with highs in the lower 40s next week! The further north and east you go the more above average your temperatures will be. At this rate, Virginia will be colder than Sept Iles next week.

I'm starting to wonder if the "climate change" we've been experiencing has more to do with extreme high latitude blocking than human emissions. I would say that the "odd" weather the globe has experienced over the past year has more to do with blocking than with emissions from factories or the Alberta tar sands. Heck, if this block keeps pressing westwards, it'll bring a new meaning to the "Block Quebecois".

It would be nice if Ottawa could get 8" of snow next week similar to the New Years period last week, but the GFS does not seem to be hinting at this.

i say the roll on the pattern change that Bastardi seems to be hinting at for around the solstice, as it could mean an end to the blocking and a shifting north of the storm track.