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Upstate NY / North Country Thread Fall 2010


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Happy meteorological winter WNY!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

1041 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

NYZ001-002-010>012-085-011715-

NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...

BATAVIA...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE

1041 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...

A GENERAL SNOW IS NOW FALLING ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS

MORNING. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING

WITHIN THIS SNOWFALL...ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO A QUARTER

OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

THIS SNOW WILL BEGIN TO CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND

DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION AS RAINFALL HAS WASHED AWAY ANY

PRIOR ROAD TREATMENT. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...PONDING WATER ON

ROADWAYS LIKELY REMAINS FROM THE OVERNIGHTS RAINFALL.

EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW FROM 10 AM

THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GENERAL SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM

WEST TO EAST. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED

ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES.

HOWEVER...A CURRENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL INCREASE

THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AIMED TOWARDS

ERIE COUNTY.

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Nice frontogenetically-forced band of +SN affecting much of Western NY this morning. Vis down to 1/8SM at BUF which is very impressive considering this is NOT lake effect....yet:

KBUF 011543Z 26013G22KT 1/8SM R23/2000V2200FT +SN FG VV003 00/M01 A2969

Man I wish I was home....

post-619-0-87430300-1291219645.gif

Yeah impressive stuff. We're trying for something in the next 6-10 days back east..lol.

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mcd2110.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2110

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0952 AM CST WED DEC 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 011552Z - 011945Z

A RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS

WESTERN-CENTRAL NY AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.

A 1-2 HR PERIOD OF MODERATE/PERHAPS HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

STEADY COLD ADVECTION WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO

OCCUR ON THE BACK EDGE /ROUGHLY 25-50 MILES/ OF A NORTH-SOUTH

ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF PA/NY

INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL /E.G.

12Z BUFFALO OBSERVED RAOB/...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS COINCIDENT WITH

SHORT TERM RUC/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...WITH

SURFACE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING TO AT/JUST UNDER 32F AND A DEEP

NEARLY ISOTHERMAL SUB-FREEZING LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE...WILL BE

FAVORABLE FOR A RELATIVELY BRIEF BOUT/NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO

PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 12/01/2010

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This is a great example of how the SREFs can be such a powerful tool once you're inside of 24hrs! They've been flagging this burst of snow for Western/Central NY since yesterday morning.

My mom was reporting 2.5" of accumulation on the Orchard Park/Boston line about 40 minutes ago.

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a miserable steady rain and 49F here in Ottawa. So envious of you guys down in Buffalo and Rochester! Still hoping for a brief changeover late this afternoon, although Environment canada seems to be hinting that the front will not catch up with the precip here in eastern Ontario and iso nly calling for a few flurries this evening. :thumbsdown:

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Pretty impressive frontal passage just occured in Delhi. The trees were bowing pretty good but stayed up. Loose kids toys were blown around. About a dozen shingles on a neighbors house were uplifted. They are still attached, but only on the top.

where abouts is the front located now? Still 50F here in Ottawa, yet apparently snow 3 hours to our south in Syracuse?

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Things starting to get more interesting in the Capital District. At my office in Latham the south wind is howeling...easily gusting between 35-40mph. Temps are at their highest point of the day...57F...and it looks like they will start to crash in the near future. The front is about 20 miles to our west.

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Squall line blew through here - though still rain and wind. The temperature has fallen from 55.4 to 38.7 in 15 minutes time.

Things starting to get more interesting in the Capital District. At my office in Latham the south wind is howeling...easily gusting between 35-40mph. Temps are at their highest point of the day...57F...and it looks like they will start to crash in the near future. The front is about 20 miles to our west.

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Squall line blew through here - though still rain and wind. The temperature has fallen from 55.4 to 38.7 in 15 minutes time.

Wow...absolutely incredible frontal passage...went from 57F and we are currently dropping past the 40F mark. Wind gusts close to 50mph and very heavy rain. Looks like the cold air may keep up with precip long enough to give us a very short period of mixed/frozen precip.

Certainly a top 5 frontal passage event for me down here in the valley.

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Wow...absolutely incredible frontal passage...went from 57F and we are currently dropping past the 40F mark. Wind gusts close to 50mph and very heavy rain. Looks like the cold air may keep up with precip long enough to give us a very short period of mixed/frozen precip.

Certainly a top 5 frontal passage event for me down here in the valley.

About 5 or so miles to your east in Clifton Park and the temp just went from 59 to 47 with 30's wind chill in the last ten minutes. Our apartment complex has a "river" of water going through it right now.

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I walked out of work just as front was peaking. Nice gusty wind driven downpours. Temp has dropped from 57F to 43F at my house in Slingerlands. I'm not optimistic about seeing any frozen precip on back end down here in the valley.........but we'll see. I'm anxiously awaiting some synoptic snow down here. Wish I had time this weekend to drive to lake effect country. Pattern for the next week doesn't look great for much of any snow here in the Capital District.

Wow...absolutely incredible frontal passage...went from 57F and we are currently dropping past the 40F mark. Wind gusts close to 50mph and very heavy rain. Looks like the cold air may keep up with precip long enough to give us a very short period of mixed/frozen precip.

Certainly a top 5 frontal passage event for me down here in the valley.

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Wow...absolutely incredible frontal passage...went from 57F and we are currently dropping past the 40F mark. Wind gusts close to 50mph and very heavy rain. Looks like the cold air may keep up with precip long enough to give us a very short period of mixed/frozen precip.

Certainly a top 5 frontal passage event for me down here in the valley.

Agreed what an awesome FROPA! stood outside and admired it for a while as the temp dropped from 58 to 42 in 15 minutes :thumbsup:

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