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Upstate NY / North Country Thread Fall 2010


NYWx

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Sounds like a good idea to me, too.

LES affects only a relatively small area covered by this thread.

As such a unique and localized phenom it should have its own thread.

(I'll admit I'm kind of jealous of you LES guys!)

Here's to plenty of synoptic stuff and winter cold we can all get excited about!

As we head into winter can you LES guys keep a separate thread for LES discussion? (And keep the LES stuff there --- ie we have a LES thread now and people are still posting about it here too....)

Then we can keep a separate thread for main synoptic discussion and general short-term outlooks.

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0z GFS is an absolute dream run for the NE and NY state in general. LEK was mentioning it a few days ago as many of us noticed the similarities to the Early January storm earlier this year when that low pressure system retrogrades and builds over Eastern Canada for what seems like an unbelievable amount of time. Latest GFS has this system locked in for nearly 8 days!...haha. Not sure if I completely buy it, but if it were to verify, we would have a amazingly wintry period ahead. Even if we come up short on synoptic moisture, it looks to supply enough cold air to get the snow guns into full gear for days on end at the local resorts....hallelujah.

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BTW, 59.4 degrees here now in Liverpool....down from 64.1 from 1.5 hours ago....winter is ready to rip in.....everyone be careful on the roads later today and this evening....in areas that have yet to accumulate snow, we have no residual salt to aid us during the initial downturn in temps to subfreezing levels (and any areas where salt has been applied last week, certainly was washed away over the last 24 hours)....we'll have falling frozen precip, probably not enough time to evaporate all the "dampness" from the roads before a freeze (especially in wind sheltered areas), no snowbanks to cushion what we be an otherwise minor "oops" and the "1st event syndrome" of drivers who seemingly (or unknowingly) forget that ice is slippery!!! :arrowhead:

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Here we go:

mcd2108.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2108

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0555 AM CST WED DEC 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/SRN NY/WRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011155Z - 011300Z

FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS

CENTRAL PA COULD POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING

WINDS...WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST RADAR IMAGE SHOWS A FORCED LINE OF SHOWERS INVOF THE COLD

FRONT...NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO ERN PA. THE CONVECTION

IS BEING AIDED BY STRONG UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE

STRONG/NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER SYSTEM...AND IS UTILIZING THE SMALL

AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY EXISTING ATOP A WEAKLY STABLE SURFACE-BASED

LAYER.

WHILE THE GROUND-BASED STABLE LAYER SHOULD GENERALLY HINDER

DOWNDRAFT PENETRATION TO THE SURFACE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY

STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR STRONGEST PORTIONS OF THE NARROW CONVECTIVE

LINE. IF THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOWS FURTHER INCREASE...WW COULD

BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS ERN PA AND INTO ADJACENT SRN NY/WRN NJ.

..GOSS.. 12/01/2010

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39727716 40397703 41267722 42267666 42507555 42157481

42037485 41257445 40257512 39697552 39727716

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Looks like quite a day shaping up for you guys! And the SREFs are still painting high probabilities for at least a light accumulation of snow across much of WNY/CNY by late this afternoon:

post-619-0-06687100-1291205527.gif

Flipped to snow here about 30 minutes ago. Coming down pretty good with nice flake size - starting to accumulate where there's not standing water after the deluge last night.

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Here we go:

mcd2108.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2108

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0555 AM CST WED DEC 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/SRN NY/WRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011155Z - 011300Z

FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS

CENTRAL PA COULD POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING

WINDS...WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST RADAR IMAGE SHOWS A FORCED LINE OF SHOWERS INVOF THE COLD

FRONT...NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO ERN PA. THE CONVECTION

IS BEING AIDED BY STRONG UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE

STRONG/NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER SYSTEM...AND IS UTILIZING THE SMALL

AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY EXISTING ATOP A WEAKLY STABLE SURFACE-BASED

LAYER.

WHILE THE GROUND-BASED STABLE LAYER SHOULD GENERALLY HINDER

DOWNDRAFT PENETRATION TO THE SURFACE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY

STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR STRONGEST PORTIONS OF THE NARROW CONVECTIVE

LINE. IF THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOWS FURTHER INCREASE...WW COULD

BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS ERN PA AND INTO ADJACENT SRN NY/WRN NJ.

..GOSS.. 12/01/2010

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39727716 40397703 41267722 42267666 42507555 42157481

42037485 41257445 40257512 39697552 39727716

Now the fun begins

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Here we go:

mcd2108.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2108

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0555 AM CST WED DEC 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/SRN NY/WRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011155Z - 011300Z

FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS

CENTRAL PA COULD POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING

WINDS...WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST RADAR IMAGE SHOWS A FORCED LINE OF SHOWERS INVOF THE COLD

FRONT...NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO ERN PA. THE CONVECTION

IS BEING AIDED BY STRONG UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE

STRONG/NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER SYSTEM...AND IS UTILIZING THE SMALL

AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY EXISTING ATOP A WEAKLY STABLE SURFACE-BASED

LAYER.

WHILE THE GROUND-BASED STABLE LAYER SHOULD GENERALLY HINDER

DOWNDRAFT PENETRATION TO THE SURFACE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY

STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR STRONGEST PORTIONS OF THE NARROW CONVECTIVE

LINE. IF THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOWS FURTHER INCREASE...WW COULD

BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS ERN PA AND INTO ADJACENT SRN NY/WRN NJ.

..GOSS.. 12/01/2010

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39727716 40397703 41267722 42267666 42507555 42157481

42037485 41257445 40257512 39697552 39727716

Yeah, here in Central PA,(Harrisburg Area) the wind is really howling. With all the rain we had yesterday and overnight, the Fire Dept Scanner is no-stop for trees/power poles and lines down all over. Temp was in the high 50's, its dropping quickly.

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Front is moving a bit quicker than modeled at a glance.....might get a bit more of a "surprise" accumulation in the FL's and points east.

Nice LEWP looking NCFRB on radar extending from west of BGM wiggling/waggling up along I81 to SE of SYR to west of Lowville and Philadelphia. Gusting to 41 now in BGM and 45 at SLK both out of the SE

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Front is moving a bit quicker than modeled at a glance.....might get a bit more of a "surprise" accumulation in the FL's and points east.

If I'm reading the 6z GFS right (and there's a chance I'm not) we're still in line for some wintry precip by 00Z (7pm EST) this evening, with more heavy precip this afternoon. Having said this, we seem to be in another dry slot after a lot of heavy rain overnight.

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