woolymammoth Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Sounds like a good idea to me, too. LES affects only a relatively small area covered by this thread. As such a unique and localized phenom it should have its own thread. (I'll admit I'm kind of jealous of you LES guys!) Here's to plenty of synoptic stuff and winter cold we can all get excited about! As we head into winter can you LES guys keep a separate thread for LES discussion? (And keep the LES stuff there --- ie we have a LES thread now and people are still posting about it here too....) Then we can keep a separate thread for main synoptic discussion and general short-term outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Docawesome Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Hello all I've been here ever since the day Eastern decided to get all sentimental on us. But I've been waiting for winter to arrive so I could jump in and join the conversation, Disappointed so far but next week looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Rainfall warning still in effect for ottawa, although we're in a dry slot right now. Still hoping for some backend snow tomorrow evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 .76" of precip so far. Peak wind gust of 21mph earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Hello all I've been here ever since the day Eastern decided to get all sentimental on us. But I've been waiting for winter to arrive so I could jump in and join the conversation, Disappointed so far but next week looks interesting. Welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I'm looking forward to getting rid of that pesky block as it seems to keep the below normal temperatures well to the south of our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Anyone else see this absolutely fantastic band off of Superior this morning...... What a beauty, on a rare fetch too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 0z GFS is an absolute dream run for the NE and NY state in general. LEK was mentioning it a few days ago as many of us noticed the similarities to the Early January storm earlier this year when that low pressure system retrogrades and builds over Eastern Canada for what seems like an unbelievable amount of time. Latest GFS has this system locked in for nearly 8 days!...haha. Not sure if I completely buy it, but if it were to verify, we would have a amazingly wintry period ahead. Even if we come up short on synoptic moisture, it looks to supply enough cold air to get the snow guns into full gear for days on end at the local resorts....hallelujah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Lots of power outages in my area, strong winds and heavy rains. I imagine the snowmobile and cross country ski trails have trees and branches down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Anyone else see this absolutely fantastic band off of Superior this morning...... What a beauty, on a rare fetch too. Relatively rare event for the folks experiencing it, I'm sure. Well aligned flow from the ENE along the shoreline, remainingg quasi-stable, doesn't setup synoptically very often....Nice catch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 BTW, 59.4 degrees here now in Liverpool....down from 64.1 from 1.5 hours ago....winter is ready to rip in.....everyone be careful on the roads later today and this evening....in areas that have yet to accumulate snow, we have no residual salt to aid us during the initial downturn in temps to subfreezing levels (and any areas where salt has been applied last week, certainly was washed away over the last 24 hours)....we'll have falling frozen precip, probably not enough time to evaporate all the "dampness" from the roads before a freeze (especially in wind sheltered areas), no snowbanks to cushion what we be an otherwise minor "oops" and the "1st event syndrome" of drivers who seemingly (or unknowingly) forget that ice is slippery!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Here we go: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 AM CST WED DEC 01 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/SRN NY/WRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 011155Z - 011300Z FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA COULD POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. LATEST RADAR IMAGE SHOWS A FORCED LINE OF SHOWERS INVOF THE COLD FRONT...NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO ERN PA. THE CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY STRONG UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG/NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER SYSTEM...AND IS UTILIZING THE SMALL AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY EXISTING ATOP A WEAKLY STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER. WHILE THE GROUND-BASED STABLE LAYER SHOULD GENERALLY HINDER DOWNDRAFT PENETRATION TO THE SURFACE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR STRONGEST PORTIONS OF THE NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE. IF THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOWS FURTHER INCREASE...WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS ERN PA AND INTO ADJACENT SRN NY/WRN NJ. ..GOSS.. 12/01/2010 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39727716 40397703 41267722 42267666 42507555 42157481 42037485 41257445 40257512 39697552 39727716 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Looks like quite a day shaping up for you guys! And the SREFs are still painting high probabilities for at least a light accumulation of snow across much of WNY/CNY by late this afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 it's snowing outside temps @ 32f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Looks like quite a day shaping up for you guys! And the SREFs are still painting high probabilities for at least a light accumulation of snow across much of WNY/CNY by late this afternoon: Flipped to snow here about 30 minutes ago. Coming down pretty good with nice flake size - starting to accumulate where there's not standing water after the deluge last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Flipped to snow here about 30 minutes ago. Coming down pretty good with nice flake size - starting to accumulate where there's not standing water after the deluge last night. is that GregN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 is that GregN? Yep, figured I would go with a new name on the new forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Today is the first day of Meteorological winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Yep, figured I would go with a new name on the new forum. lol =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Here we go: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 AM CST WED DEC 01 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/SRN NY/WRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 011155Z - 011300Z FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA COULD POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. LATEST RADAR IMAGE SHOWS A FORCED LINE OF SHOWERS INVOF THE COLD FRONT...NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO ERN PA. THE CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY STRONG UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG/NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER SYSTEM...AND IS UTILIZING THE SMALL AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY EXISTING ATOP A WEAKLY STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER. WHILE THE GROUND-BASED STABLE LAYER SHOULD GENERALLY HINDER DOWNDRAFT PENETRATION TO THE SURFACE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR STRONGEST PORTIONS OF THE NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE. IF THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOWS FURTHER INCREASE...WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS ERN PA AND INTO ADJACENT SRN NY/WRN NJ. ..GOSS.. 12/01/2010 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39727716 40397703 41267722 42267666 42507555 42157481 42037485 41257445 40257512 39697552 39727716 Now the fun begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Here we go: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 AM CST WED DEC 01 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/SRN NY/WRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 011155Z - 011300Z FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA COULD POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. LATEST RADAR IMAGE SHOWS A FORCED LINE OF SHOWERS INVOF THE COLD FRONT...NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO ERN PA. THE CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY STRONG UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG/NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER SYSTEM...AND IS UTILIZING THE SMALL AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY EXISTING ATOP A WEAKLY STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER. WHILE THE GROUND-BASED STABLE LAYER SHOULD GENERALLY HINDER DOWNDRAFT PENETRATION TO THE SURFACE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR STRONGEST PORTIONS OF THE NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE. IF THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOWS FURTHER INCREASE...WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS ERN PA AND INTO ADJACENT SRN NY/WRN NJ. ..GOSS.. 12/01/2010 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39727716 40397703 41267722 42267666 42507555 42157481 42037485 41257445 40257512 39697552 39727716 Yeah, here in Central PA,(Harrisburg Area) the wind is really howling. With all the rain we had yesterday and overnight, the Fire Dept Scanner is no-stop for trees/power poles and lines down all over. Temp was in the high 50's, its dropping quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Began work on the ark last night. Not sure if im gonna get it done in time. Getting crushed with rain here. Temp dropped 10* in last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormtracker81 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 BIG flakes coming down in churchville, snow now falling in north ROC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Front looks to be about to Western Oneida County. Sitting at 53 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Front is moving a bit quicker than modeled at a glance.....might get a bit more of a "surprise" accumulation in the FL's and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 It's getting tough to see the grass in eggertsville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Front is moving a bit quicker than modeled at a glance.....might get a bit more of a "surprise" accumulation in the FL's and points east. Nice LEWP looking NCFRB on radar extending from west of BGM wiggling/waggling up along I81 to SE of SYR to west of Lowville and Philadelphia. Gusting to 41 now in BGM and 45 at SLK both out of the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRealeDeal Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Flash Flood Warnings have been posted for Central NY as the line of heavy rain moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Front is moving a bit quicker than modeled at a glance.....might get a bit more of a "surprise" accumulation in the FL's and points east. If I'm reading the 6z GFS right (and there's a chance I'm not) we're still in line for some wintry precip by 00Z (7pm EST) this evening, with more heavy precip this afternoon. Having said this, we seem to be in another dry slot after a lot of heavy rain overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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