DeltaT13 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Wet,bare, and relatively warm ground with snow falling in the afternoon will make it difficult to achieve much in the way of accumulation, Antecedent conditions certainly aren't favorable in the scenario, but it made me think of something fascinating that I observed today. All of the local retention ponds and ditches held a thin ice cover for the entire day...with a high of 49 and ample sun, pretty impressive!. I suppose its a true testament to how short the days are right now, and how much heat the earth has already radiated away. So we have that going for us.....which is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Also regarding the changeover Wednesday morning, I'm leaning closer to the 1-3" rather than 2-4" for far western New York...and the 3" amounts will probably be confined to the hills southeast of BUF (most likely in Wyoming/Cattaraugus/Allegany Counties). There's going to be a very narrow window between when the boundary layer is sufficiently cold enough to support snow, and when the synoptic precip actually cuts off. That window will be a bit larger farther to the east...and the hilltops of Central New York (especially west of I-81) could actually get a "surprise" thump during the day Wednesday. Going to be hard for anything to accumulate with all the soaking wet ground don't you think? This was already raised. Good to know I'm not crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Off to finish winterizing the Motorhome before the 3 inches of rain comes, wow this really sucks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Really no change to what I have posted the past day or so. I'll fine tune things later this morning or more likely late this afternoon. It looks like one heck of wind, rain and temperature event for Cntl and E'rn NY later tonight tomorrow and I still think the NCFRB WILL produce some microburst type winds for many areas as it blows by during Wednesday afternoon. I think Tornado Girl will have a lot to be excited about over the next 24 + hours: Possible convective type wind, synoptic wind event, too and a decent long-duration LES to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 With the ground as frozen as it is in the Adirondacks I'll be curious to see what floods tomorrow / Thursday. I'm assuming IF the storm ends with a bit of snow everything will still be too warm / wet for any accumulation. At least the weekend temps are starting to look better (colder is better... though not many of my co-workers agree!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 With the ground as frozen as it is in the Adirondacks I'll be curious to see what floods tomorrow / Thursday. I'm assuming IF the storm ends with a bit of snow everything will still be too warm / wet for any accumulation. At least the weekend temps are starting to look better (colder is better... though not many of my co-workers agree!) IMO the potential for some flash flooding is possible there (Catskills too for that matter) due to the fr0zen ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Going to be hard for anything to accumulate with all the soaking wet ground don't you think? This was already raised. Good to know I'm not crazy. Well we certainly didn't have a problem accumlating during the day Friday, after temps had held in the mid 40s with rain all of Thursday night. At this time of year...with the sun angle as low as it is...snow will accumulate if it comes down at a decent clip, as long as temps are at/below freezing. SREF probabilities for >1" snowfall in the 12hr period from 12z Wednesday to 00z Thursday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Really no change to what I have posted the past day or so. I'll fine tune things later this morning or more likely late this afternoon. It looks like one heck of wind, rain and temperature event for Cntl and E'rn NY later tonight tomorrow and I still think the NCFRB WILL produce some microburst type winds for many areas as it blows by during Wednesday afternoon. I think Tornado Girl will have a lot to be excited about over the next 24 + hours: Possible convective type wind, synoptic wind event, too and a decent long-duration LES to follow. If you look at the orientation of the 2m temp contours in your vicinity at 00z tomorrow evening, it almost looks like the WRF is attempting to develop a bowing line segment: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 If you look at the orientation of the 2m temp contours in your vicinity at 00z tomorrow evening, it almost looks like the WRF is attempting to develop a bowing line segment: The (forecast) hodos are impressive too especially in the lowest few K feet in the HV. I could see a QLCS feature for sure tomorrow with similar isolated to scattered severe wind (especially) potential like what occurred back on the 17th of this month across the mid-HV and S'rn Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Well we certainly didn't have a problem accumlating during the day Friday, after temps had held in the mid 40s with rain all of Thursday night. At this time of year...with the sun angle as low as it is...snow will accumulate if it comes down at a decent clip, as long as temps are at/below freezing. SREF probabilities for >1" snowfall in the 12hr period from 12z Wednesday to 00z Thursday: The 6z GFS still shows all of eastern Ontario turning over to snow by early Wednesday evening and Environment Canada is now calling for us to receive about 2-4cm. Here's hoping! i actually find rain to snow situations exciting as it kinds of lifts your spirits after a depressing, dreary rainfall. It looks like Ottawa could be in for its heaviest cold rain evenht for quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolymammoth Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Thanks for an encouraging word to a Southern Tiersman! I think the winter is going to be just fine, synoptically speaking around here.....not "super great" but just give the pattern a chance to settle down.....may take awhile....and don't lose hope with all the discussion on the other region's threads....their misery can lead to our benefit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12z GFS really gets interesting next Sun. night..Much further west than previous runs..strong retrograding low and lots of cold, cyclonic, moist airmass (with embedded synoptic precip/snow) all pointing to a prolonged period of LES (all next week?????!!!!), and (yes for us snow starved) synoptic (albeit tame by our standards) snows. As said last night, I like our position (Upstate NY N and E NY and S. Ontario) in this highly unusual setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 IMO the potential for some flash flooding is possible there (Catskills too for that matter) due to the fr0zen ground. 16 November 2006 comes to mind here. I'd have to go back and look at the reanalysis, but that was a destructive flash flood event near BGM...and I have a feeling there are some similarities between that event and tomorrow's potential event. 2-4"+ of rain, mostly falling in a 3-4hr period on frozen ground. People had water in their homes that never felt they'd ever have to worry about flooding. I believe that event also produced 75 mph convective wind gusts in/near Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 any possibilities of some thermal backing on this upcoming LES event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Not my final call but this is what I'm thinking as of now. LES WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ERIE,GENESEE,WYOMING,CHAUTAQUA, AND CATTARGUS COUNTIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 NWS BUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1141 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 NYZ010>012-019-020-085-010045- /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0005.101201T2100Z-101203T0000Z/ NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1141 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS: THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING ERIE...GENESEE...WYOMING... CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. * TIMING: LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND SOUTHERN GENESEE COUNTY SOUTHWARD ACROSS SKI COUNTRY. IF THE FORECAST WIND DIRECTION CHANGES JUST SLIGHTLY...THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE HEART OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AND BATAVIA OR FARTHER SOUTH INTO CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED ONE FOOT WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PERSISTS THE LONGEST. * IMPACTS: HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY PRODUCE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ HITCHCOCK/RSH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 any possibilities of some thermal backing on this upcoming LES event? The lake-induced thermal trough is always an issue at this time of year...but the WRF seemed to have a good handle on that with the last event, IMO. The models have been pretty consistent with the idea of a south towns/ski country event, so I'd keep my expectations in check from the metro area northward. If some sneaky s/w is able to cross the region (not impossible considering the relative long duration of this event)...then the band could temporarily lift north, but I'm pretty confident that the heavy duty totals will be south of BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The lake-induced thermal trough is always an issue at this time of year...but the WRF seemed to have a good handle on that with the last event, IMO. The models have been pretty consistent with the idea of a south towns/ski country event, so I'd keep my expectations in check from the metro area northward. If some sneaky s/w is able to cross the region (not impossible considering the relative long duration of this event)...then the band could temporarily lift north, but I'm pretty confident that the heavy duty totals will be south of BUF. What are you thinking for West Seneca/OP border Justin? Does my map look good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12z GFS really gets interesting next Sun. night..Much further west than previous runs..strong retrograding low and lots of cold, cyclonic, moist airmass (with embedded synoptic precip/snow) all pointing to a prolonged period of LES (all next week?????!!!!), and (yes for us snow starved) synoptic (albeit tame by our standards) snows. As said last night, I like our position (Upstate NY N and E NY and S. Ontario) in this highly unusual setup. Like Kulaginman mentioned in another post, the set-up has some similarities to last January's event that dumped a ton of snow south of L Ontario. That was such an odd pattern, watching a storm trek west from Nova Scotia and send snow way back into CNY/WNY. I thought that was a once in a 50-year type of event, but here we are almost a year later with a similar set-up. We'll see how it plays out, but pretty cool to see something like this showing up on the models again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Like Kulaginman mentioned in another post, the set-up has some similarities to last January's event that dumped a ton of snow south of L Ontario. That was such an odd pattern, watching a storm trek west from Nova Scotia and send snow way back into CNY/WNY. I thought that was a once in a 50-year type of event, but here we are almost a year later with a similar set-up. We'll see how it plays out, but pretty cool to see something like this showing up on the models again. I was thinking the same thing... NEW THREAD UP FOR THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT! click here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Really no change to what I have posted the past day or so. I'll fine tune things later this morning or more likely late this afternoon. It looks like one heck of wind, rain and temperature event for Cntl and E'rn NY later tonight tomorrow and I still think the NCFRB WILL produce some microburst type winds for many areas as it blows by during Wednesday afternoon. I think Tornado Girl will have a lot to be excited about over the next 24 + hours: Possible convective type wind, synoptic wind event, too and a decent long-duration LES to follow. yes, I'm very excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 looks like a solid 2-4 inches of rain is a good bet;..upsloping could cause higher rain amounts in a few places... in the Adirondacks, Catskills, and over into the Green mountains in Vermont. This trough will take on a strong negative tilt tomorrow. So, I won't be surprised to see a high wind warning issued. Instability is such that the risk of upper air winds mixing down the surface low. However, if we see enough thunderstorms develop ahead of the front..it wouldn't take all that much for mixing to occur. who knows. regardless the threat is there for a downburst. This is going to be an interesting storm to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Can anyone post a map for Lake Ontario Lake Effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Now we will have to wait and see if that omega block forms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Can anyone post a map for Lake Ontario Lake Effect? I'm at work so I can't right now...However, if Kulaginman or Lake Effect King doesn't post one ..I could later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Can anyone post a map for Lake Ontario Lake Effect? I'm working on one now man, be done soon =] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Yes a map for lake Ontario would be great also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 My map for Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteo Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 As we head into winter can you LES guys keep a separate thread for LES discussion? (And keep the LES stuff there --- ie we have a LES thread now and people are still posting about it here too....) Then we can keep a separate thread for main synoptic discussion and general short-term outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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