Upstate NY / North Country Thread Fall 2010

[kulaginman]

I think we can include the higher terrain south of BUF as well as the immediate Lake Erie shoreline (near DKK) in the upcoming high wind threat...although in that part of the state, the period of concern is really tomorrow morning into midday. I wouldn't be surprised if the climatologically favored locations experience 60 mph wind gusts for a period.

Also, the LES potential continues to look good...and I think we will see a longer-duration WSW flow than what occurred this past weekend. The distant BUF south towns look to receive the most for now...and due to the longer duration, I think someone in the Boston Hills will approach/exceed 12" of snow by late THU. Tough call for the nearby south towns and the immediate metro area.

[ayuud]

I think we can include the higher terrain south of BUF as well as the immediate Lake Erie shoreline (near DKK) in the upcoming high wind threat...although in that part of the state, the period of concern is really tomorrow morning into midday. I wouldn't be surprised if the climatologically favored locations experience 60 mph wind gusts for a period.

Also, the LES potential continues to look good...and I think we will see a longer-duration WSW flow than what occurred this past weekend. The distant BUF south towns look to receive the most for now...and due to the longer duration, I think someone in the Boston Hills will approach/exceed 12" of snow by late THU. Tough call for the nearby south towns and the immediate metro area.

As always

[lakeeffectkid383]

I think we can include the higher terrain south of BUF as well as the immediate Lake Erie shoreline (near DKK) in the upcoming high wind threat...although in that part of the state, the period of concern is really tomorrow morning into midday. I wouldn't be surprised if the climatologically favored locations experience 60 mph wind gusts for a period.

Also, the LES potential continues to look good...and I think we will see a longer-duration WSW flow than what occurred this past weekend. The distant BUF south towns look to receive the most for now...and due to the longer duration, I think someone in the Boston Hills will approach/exceed 12" of snow by late THU. Tough call for the nearby south towns and the immediate metro area.

What are you thinking for West Seneca/OP border?

[Andyace]

I was watching a video of Bastardi and he is having another one of his forecast years where he says winter becomes mild on or about christmas lasting through Jan/feb. So we probably have a good shot at the opposite, lol.

[lakeeffectkid383]

My first call map for Wednesday night/Thursdays lake effect.

[ayuud]

My first call map for Wednesday night/Thursdays lake effect.

not bad

[Organizing Low]

I just watched JBs long ranger and he continues to say that after December, winter will be pretty much over for much of the east; granted he seems to be aiming this message at his Mid-Atlantic and Ohio valley clients. I'm left asking the question: has it even got started? I mean, there is nothing spectacular in the short and medium range. Still, I can't help wondering if, once the high latitude blocking supposedly breaks down after December, the storm track and below normal temperatures will shift north. A negative AO would seem to be bad news for those of us in the north country and SE Canada if last year is anything to go by.

He did seem to hint that there will be a changeover to snow on Wednesday. I'll believe that when I see it. Rain-to-snow situations rarely deliver I've found.

expect a lot of rain the next couple days.

[Andyace]

lol, yes it is going to rain and rain heavy.

[lakeeffectkid383]

New Map.

[kulaginman]

My first call map for Wednesday night/Thursdays lake effect.

That seems like a pretty good first call map, although I'm not sure I would bring the 8"+ amounts that far south in Chautauqua County...and I think the gradient is going to be even tighter across the immediate BUF metro area. I'm not sure the north town suburbs will receive any more snow with this event than they received with the last event...but the south towns will likely receive more due to the longer duration. So we could be looking at <1" north of I-90 in northern Erie County, while places like Orchard Park and East Aurora end up in the 8-12" range.

[kulaginman]

It's also worth noting that the SREFs are painting a pretty high probability of 1-3"/2-4" synoptic snowfall across much of Western NY following the changeover Wednesday morning.

[lakeeffectkid383]

It's also worth noting that the SREFs are painting a pretty high probability of 1-3"/2-4" synoptic snowfall across much of Western NY following the changeover Wednesday morning.

Justin you should come on the channel 4 WIVB weather blog.

http://blogs.wivb.com/category/weather-watch-4/

[lakeeffectkid383]

It's also worth noting that the SREFs are painting a pretty high probability of 1-3"/2-4" synoptic snowfall across much of Western NY following the changeover Wednesday morning.

I'm hoping between that and lake effect I can see at least 6-8 inches by this weekend in West Seneca/OP.

NAM targets directley over my area with this lake effect event bringing over .75" QPF to my area which would be roughly 8-12" verbatim depending on snow:water ratios.

Not by any means am I saying that this is right or anything , just saying this is what the NAM is showing now verbatim.

I think Justin is right because I think where ever this band does set up and sit , there will be a bit more snow then the past event. Well probally see some 1 foot plus lollipops in Boston or Colden.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I was watching a video of Bastardi and he is having another one of his forecast years where he says winter becomes mild on or about christmas lasting through Jan/feb. So we probably have a good shot at the opposite, lol.

The Uk is having its coldest November since 1993, so maybe we'll have a December like 1993, where the pattern flips to bitterly cold right around Christmas?

[ayuud]

That seems like a pretty good first call map, although I'm not sure I would bring the 8"+ amounts that far south in Chautauqua County...and I think the gradient is going to be even tighter across the immediate BUF metro area. I'm not sure the north town suburbs will receive any more snow with this event than they received with the last event...but the south towns will likely receive more due to the longer duration. So we could be looking at <1" north of I-90 in northern Erie County, while places like Orchard Park and East Aurora end up in the 8-12" range.

what about downtown?

[WNYLakeEffect]

That seems like a pretty good first call map, although I'm not sure I would bring the 8"+ amounts that far south in Chautauqua County...and I think the gradient is going to be even tighter across the immediate BUF metro area. I'm not sure the north town suburbs will receive any more snow with this event than they received with the last event...but the south towns will likely receive more due to the longer duration. So we could be looking at <1" north of I-90 in northern Erie County, while places like Orchard Park and East Aurora end up in the 8-12" range.

GFS and NAM would still support the activity moving south late Thursday or early Friday (based on 850mb winds), which could allow for an opportunity of 8"+ in the usual spots (Findlay Lake-Sherman-Mayville-Stockton). Also, in a few WSW/W events, there's what I call the Erie-Sherman band. From what I've seen through my ongoing mapping of storms in WNY over the past 117 years, there is occasionally this connection between Erie, PA and Sherman where both places get significantly more snow than nearby locations (Union City and Corry to the south, Westfield 2 SSE and Sinclairville to the north, and Jamestown to the east). Occasionally it will extend north to Westfield, or east to Jamestown (December 11, 2009 was close to this, IIRC).

/

12/29/2001 had the looks of it at times, too.

From what I have seen, this coming event would need a more of a Wly wind shift.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Latest NAM =]

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_84HR.gif

Crushes West Seneca,Orchard Park,Elma, East Aurora with a solid 8-10 inches using a 10:1 ratio. If we could get ratios to get up to 13-15:1 that would equate to a solid 9-14"

Will probally change by 00z run but it sure keeps me on the edge of my seat as I'm sure it does others in the immediate BUF area.

One question for anyone who knows this answer (Justin?)... Will thermal backing still be a possible factor in this event?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I am cautiously optimistic about a brief changeover to snow in Ottawa on Wednesday evening, although we might be a little too far east. It would be great if we could get a surprise 2" or something.

In the meantime, we look to get pounded with rain on Tuesday into Wednesday .

[lakeeffectkid383]

Looks like the next few days will be very intresting around here. A High Wind Warning for parts of WNY for gust up to and over 60mph due to downsloping tomorrow.

Then it looks like we will see anywhere from 1.5" - 3" of rain in WNY with lots of ponding on area roadways and flooding in urban areas as well as creeks and streams overflowing their banks.

Then our attention turns to a potential rain/snow burst on the backside of a FROPA Wednesday with a possible quick burst of 1-3"/2-4" which will set the stage for lake effect forming Wednesday night through thursday possibly being very close to the BUF metro area. NAM saying up to 1" QPF is possibly with a pretty sustained WSW flow.

[ayuud]

Looks like the next few days will be very intresting around here. A High Wind Warning for parts of WNY for gust up to and over 60mph due to downsloping tomorrow.

Then it looks like we will see anywhere from 1.5" - 3" of rain in WNY with lots of ponding on area roadways and flooding in urban areas as well as creeks and streams overflowing their banks.

Then our attention turns to a potential rain/snow burst on the backside of a FROPA Wednesday with a possible quick burst of 1-3"/2-4" which will set the stage for lake effect forming Wednesday night through thursday possibly being very close to the BUF metro area. NAM saying up to 1" QPF is possibly with a pretty sustained WSW flow.

last time i got a dust of snow that's it

[lakeeffectkid383]

last time i got a dust of snow that's it

I was in West Seneca/OP and saw 3.5 inches from that event.

[Organizing Low]

welll hold on there a minute

Euro paints an interesting picture for potential snow next week 7 or 8 days from now.

[kulaginman]

GFS and NAM would still support the activity moving south late Thursday or early Friday (based on 850mb winds), which could allow for an opportunity of 8"+ in the usual spots (Findlay Lake-Sherman-Mayville-Stockton). Also, in a few WSW/W events, there's what I call the Erie-Sherman band. From what I've seen through my ongoing mapping of storms in WNY over the past 117 years, there is occasionally this connection between Erie, PA and Sherman where both places get significantly more snow than nearby locations (Union City and Corry to the south, Westfield 2 SSE and Sinclairville to the north, and Jamestown to the east). Occasionally it will extend north to Westfield, or east to Jamestown (December 11, 2009 was close to this, IIRC).

/

12/29/2001 had the looks of it at times, too.

From what I have seen, this coming event would need a more of a Wly wind shift.

Nice post!! I wasn't aware of the so-called "Erie-Sherman" band, but you seem to be onto something based on the images you posted. I'll have to go back and look at some of the reanalysis data for those events to see what might cause that secondary snowband to develop.

[kulaginman]

Also regarding the changeover Wednesday morning, I'm leaning closer to the 1-3" rather than 2-4" for far western New York...and the 3" amounts will probably be confined to the hills southeast of BUF (most likely in Wyoming/Cattaraugus/Allegany Counties). There's going to be a very narrow window between when the boundary layer is sufficiently cold enough to support snow, and when the synoptic precip actually cuts off. That window will be a bit larger farther to the east...and the hilltops of Central New York (especially west of I-81) could actually get a "surprise" thump during the day Wednesday.

[LakeEffectKing]

Also regarding the changeover Wednesday morning, I'm leaning closer to the 1-3" rather than 2-4" for far western New York...and the 3" amounts will probably be confined to the hills southeast of BUF (most likely in Wyoming/Cattaraugus/Allegany Counties). There's going to be a very narrow window between when the boundary layer is sufficiently cold enough to support snow, and when the synoptic precip actually cuts off. That window will be a bit larger farther to the east...and the hilltops of Central New York (especially west of I-81) could actually get a "surprise" thump during the day Wednesday.

Wet,bare, and relatively warm ground with snow falling in the afternoon will make it difficult to achieve much in the way of accumulation, I suspect, but you know the local geography better than anyone here I suppose, so those in the hills may in fact be able to overcome the aforementioned negatives. That said, the LES setup that follows looks pretty good for a decent length of time, for both lakes.

The late weekend, early next week setup is VERY intriguing, and I am actually a bit more enthusiastic than most, I presume. The blocking is so strong, we might be able to retro the offshore system back far enough to not only throw in some synoptic moisture/snow, but to aid in cyclonic, marginally unstable airmass for continued LES potentials. The Euro and UK seem to lead the way with a "quite a bit" further tug back west....and we very well might not be west enough....that -NAO means business! The key will be just how much energy gets ripped to the south of the monster block. Gotta be really tough for the models at this range.

[kulaginman]

The late weekend, early next week setup is VERY intriguing, and I am actually a bit more enthusiastic than most, I presume. The blocking is so strong, we might be able to retro the offshore system back far enough to not only throw in some synoptic moisture/snow, but to aid in cyclonic, marginally unstable airmass for continued LES potentials. The Euro and UK seem to lead the way with a "quite a bit" further tug back west....and we very well might not be west enough....that -NAO means business! The key will be just how much energy gets ripped to the south of the monster block. Gotta be really tough for the models at this range.

Next week's setup kind of reminds me of that which produced the exceedingly rare 30"+ snowstorm at Niagara Falls last January. Days, and days, and days of moist cyclonic northwest flow on the backside of a retrograding storm system in southeast Canada. In the higher terrain south of BUF we never saw truely "heavy" snowfall rates...but it constantly snowed for essentially 10 days straight with an average of 2-3" per day and occasionally as much as 5-6 inches. It was a very wintry period! Just one of many possible outcomes for next week I suppose, but don't worry my interest has been piqued as well!

[danno]

Seeing the LE maps for Erie is making us Ontarioites envious - at least me. Off of Ontario, are we going to see a repeat of this past Fri/Sat, just a tad bigger. Best snows in Southern Jeff. and Lewis, then the band shifting quickly south Thur. pm and broadbrushing Oswego? I know my best wind trajectory for Western Onondaga is 300ish. Anybody have a good wind direction for Redfield/Orwell? 265ish?

LEK - how 'bout a map?

[woolymammoth]

Warm synoptic systems, brief cold shots dropping snow in a few LES-favored areas.....not the kind of winter I'm hoping for.

I'd hate to see another winter where this forum is all about a few guys talking about LES while the rest of "upstate" is dead in the water....

I'm depressed!

And I can't move to Lewis County! It used to snow here very regularly. Really, it did!

[LakeEffectKing]

Seeing the LE maps for Erie is making us Ontarioites envious - at least me. Off of Ontario, are we going to see a repeat of this past Fri/Sat, just a tad bigger. Best snows in Southern Jeff. and Lewis, then the band shifting quickly south Thur. pm and broadbrushing Oswego? I know my best wind trajectory for Western Onondaga is 300ish. Anybody have a good wind direction for Redfield/Orwell? 265ish?

LEK - how 'bout a map?

Well, maybe tomorrow night....busy at work and at home. I think as of now, we can look for a longer duration event that hangs out to the north a bit longer (southtowns of Buf and Jefferson Co. off Ontario) I like to see some larger lapse rates/deltas, but I haven't ran any bufkit data all day and I'm heading off to bed.

Later!

[LakeEffectKing]

Warm synoptic systems, brief cold shots dropping snow in a few LES-favored areas.....not the kind of winter I'm hoping for.

I'd hate to see another winter where this forum is all about a few guys talking about LES while the rest of "upstate" is dead in the water....

I'm depressed!

And I can't move to Lewis County! It used to snow here very regularly. Really, it did!

I think the winter is going to be just fine, synoptically speaking around here.....not "super great" but just give the pattern a chance to settle down.....may take awhile....and don't lose hope with all the discussion on the other region's threads....their misery can lead to our benefit!!