Upstate NY / North Country Thread Fall 2010

[DeltaT13]

I've been keeping my eye on that set-up..

First thing I noticed was the block on the 0z GFS last night, and the subsequent development of a coastal low around the 12/2 timeframe. The 12z run has since come in less favorable, but an amplified trough of that magnitude will have a tough time clearing the coast without firing up something, especially with that kind of baroclinicity in place. WNY really isnt in a great place for this system, but I'll take what we can get right now.

[Wx4cast]

I've been keeping my eye on that set-up..

First thing I noticed was the block on the 0z GFS last night, and the subsequent development of a coastal low around the 12/2 timeframe. The 12z run has since come in less favorable, but an amplified trough of that magnitude will have a tough time clearing the coast without firing up something, especially with that kind of baroclinicity in place. WNY really isnt in a great place for this system, but I'll take what we can get right now.

As of right now based off of the 12z models it looks like the dry slot from hell on Thursday morning across ENY. BUT perhaps across the Western Adirondacks W to perhaps I 81 and south to Cntl S'rn Tier combination of LES/LE, wraparound CCB and some weak deformation, perhaps in the wake of the storm may give some decent snows. Next weekend's system may be supressed south? Who knows this far out but it has that look to it now based on GFS verbatim.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Greetings from Montreal! Drove through quite the snowsquall around the Ontario/Quebec border on the 417 around noon. White out conditions and everything.

[kulaginman]

As of right now based off of the 12z models it looks like the dry slot from hell on Thursday morning across ENY. BUT perhaps across the Western Adirondacks W to perhaps I 81 and south to Cntl S'rn Tier combination of LES/LE, wraparound CCB and some weak deformation, perhaps in the wake of the storm may give some decent snows. Next weekend's system may be supressed south? Who knows this far out but it has that look to it now based on GFS verbatim.

I am departing from Western NY tomorrow morning, heading back to SNE where I will begin paying very close attention to synoptic threats from here on out. Next Sun/Mon does hold some potential, IMO...but I share your concerns about a possible suppressed storm system. If my memory serves me correctly, a lot of storm systems had a tendency to trend north as we approached the event during the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 NINA winters...so it'll be interesting to see if similar patterns develop during this upcoming winter.

[ayuud]

I am departing from Western NY tomorrow morning, heading back to SNE where I will begin paying very close attention to synoptic threats from here on out. Next Sun/Mon does hold some potential, IMO...but I share your concerns about a possible suppressed storm system. If my memory serves me correctly, a lot of storm systems had a tendency to trend north as we approached the event during the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 NINA winters...so it'll be interesting to see if similar patterns develop during this upcoming winter.

LES will miss you

[kulaginman]

LES will miss you

I'm hoping the moist unstable layer will be just deep enough to squeeze out another inch as llvl winds veer to the WSW and the fetch increases early tomorrow....but we'd really have to thread the needle in order for that to occur! But I want to take full advantage of Lake Erie's potential before I hit the road, since this weekend may be my only shot at LES all winter!!

[NorEaster27]

4-6 inches today of fresh snow skiing whiteface. Even a solid coating when I got back home to bolton landing, grass is still nicely snow covered.

[CNY Mike]

3.2" here in Port Leyden. I made a trip up to Lowville, measured 7" up there. Trying to upload some pics, but the computer/phone won't co-operate.

[Andyace]

Looks like a messy week coming up but maybe some hope after that.

[Wx4cast]

Looks like a messy week coming up but maybe some hope after that.

From the 06z GFS from 28 Nov. Very interesting cold fropa for Wed. Good NCFRB and convective potential followed by potential for some mix or even change to sleet/snow with fropa. NAM 06z even more intense on front and delta-T across it as well as the NCRFB ahead of it.

Here are some maps for 18z Wed 1 Dec from the GFS' 06z run:

[kulaginman]

And there could be another round of significant LES in the wake of Wednesday's synoptic storm system. I've never really taken the dgex into serious consideration when constructing a forecast, but it is developing a rather intense single band on a WSW flow downwind of Lake Erie from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night...and continuing downwind of Lake Ontario into at least Friday:

Fwiw:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html

[WNYLakeEffect]

And there could be another round of significant LES in the wake of Wednesday's synoptic storm system. I've never really taken the dgex into serious consideration when constructing a forecast, but it is developing a rather intense single band on a WSW flow downwind of Lake Erie from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night...and continuing downwind of Lake Ontario into at least Friday:

Fwiw:

http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html

00z Euro looked interesting in the >168-240 hour range, too.

0.2" additional snow yesterday evening and last night. The edge of the clouds is approaching me right now, so the sun will probably melt most of the snow here today.

[ayuud]

And there could be another round of significant LES in the wake of Wednesday's synoptic storm system. I've never really taken the dgex into serious consideration when constructing a forecast, but it is developing a rather intense single band on a WSW flow downwind of Lake Erie from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night...and continuing downwind of Lake Ontario into at least Friday:

Fwiw:

http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html

[Tornado Girl]

That weak band in Oswego County should die off in a few hours

[Andyace]

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE

CWA AND BEGINNING TO EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ENSEMBLES DO SHOW

PERHAPS A LITTLE TIMING DIFFERENCE, BUT NOTHING THAT APPEARS

SIGNIFICANT ATTM. AS THE FRONT PULLS OUT, THE RAIN WILL CHANGE

OVER TO SNOW AND SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS, MODELS DO SHOW THE SET UP FOR LES.

ONCE THIS HAPPENS THEY WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS, POSSIBLY

INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

SPLITTING OFF ALONG THE COLD FRONT, TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THIS SYSTEM CUTS OFF AND STALLS AS THERE IS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH

PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC THAT IS SIMILAR IN LOOKS TO AN

OMEGA BLOCK, BUT NOT QUITE AS THERE IS STILL SOME FLOW UNDER IT.

THIS KEEPS A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA, AND THUS THE PROLONGED

LES SHOWERS.

[Tornado Girl]

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE

CWA AND BEGINNING TO EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ENSEMBLES DO SHOW

PERHAPS A LITTLE TIMING DIFFERENCE, BUT NOTHING THAT APPEARS

SIGNIFICANT ATTM. AS THE FRONT PULLS OUT, THE RAIN WILL CHANGE

OVER TO SNOW AND SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS, MODELS DO SHOW THE SET UP FOR LES.

ONCE THIS HAPPENS THEY WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS, POSSIBLY

INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

SPLITTING OFF ALONG THE COLD FRONT, TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THIS SYSTEM CUTS OFF AND STALLS AS THERE IS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH

PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC THAT IS SIMILAR IN LOOKS TO AN

OMEGA BLOCK, BUT NOT QUITE AS THERE IS STILL SOME FLOW UNDER IT.

THIS KEEPS A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA, AND THUS THE PROLONGED

LES SHOWERS.

I think everything will turn back to snow Wednesday night. Then as the flow becomes more zonal LES is a good bet Thursday Downwind of both Eire and Ontario. We will have to wait and see what happens after that...I'M not sold on this belonged LES event...yet.

[ENYsnow]

It looks like after the wednesday event the next system will find a way to slide under us and deliver some snow to the mid atlantic...great. I hope we see something interesting show up in the mid range by next weekend with all that blocking downstream.

[ENYsnow]

12z Euro has some potential. The storm next weekend slides under us and then misses wide right as the trough goes negative over the atlantic and another piece of energy dives down from ontario behind it.

[Wx4cast]

I didn't really look too much at the post LES potential behind Wednesday's system but as far as the rain and wind potential are concerned they both look good. Operational models both NAM and GFS continue to show NCFRB (Narrow Cold Frontal RainBand) with possible strong winds (and possible convection) along leading edge of the rainband.

QP could also be quite high too as pwat anomalies on Wed and +3 or >

As for the change to snow the OPS GFS and to a lesser extent the NAM still have that as a possibility while the GEFS 850T ensemble "say" hold on. GFS rushes in colder air very fast; GEFS lags behind with the 850 0C isotherm while it moves out the best moisture prior to the colder air's arrival.

[Tornado Girl]

I didn't really look too much at the post LES potential behind Wednesday's system but as far as the rain and wind potential are concerned they both look good. Operational models both NAM and GFS continue to show NCFRB (Narrow Cold Frontal RainBand) with possible strong winds (and possible convection) along leading edge of the rainband.

QP could also be quite high too as pwat anomalies on Wed and +3 or >

As for the change to snow the OPS GFS and to a lesser extent the NAM still have that as a possibility while the GEFS 850T ensemble "say" hold on. GFS rushes in colder air very fast; GEFS lags behind with the 850 0C isotherm while it moves out the best moisture prior to the colder air's arrival.

I agree on the rain and wind...QP of 2-3 inches and more in some areas are a good bet

[Wx4cast]

I agree on the rain and wind...QP of 2-3 inches and more in some areas are a good bet

Totally agree with solid 1-3 rain event and potential for isolated 4 inch amounts, especially across the 'Dacks and Catskills (and probably higher terrain east of the HV, too.)

N-S valleys may see channeled flow from south enhancing wind if atmosphere isn't stabilized; depending on how strong the low-topped NCFRB is this could bring down strong winds aloft at 925 thru 80 hPa. To me it has some similarities to the 17 Nov system.

Also forecast hodographs indicate strongly backed flow in the lowest 7K feet or so, however BUFKIT profiles for Albany circa 78 hours out are moist and isothermal.

[Avid6eek]

Totally agree with solid 1-3 rain event and potential for isolated 4 inch amounts, especially across the 'Dacks and Catskills

Has the ground froze in the higher elevations? Just asking because of potential flooding concerns.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The outlook would appear to be bleak for our region into early December. Does anyone else see similarities to 1988-89? July 1988 had a big heatwave, just like this year, followed by a coolish October and warmish November. There wasn't a whole lot of snow in these parts that winter. It was also a La Nina year.

[Logan11]

Hunter Mountain saw that forecast and aborted any snow making this weekend...putting off the opening until at least next Saturday. What a disaster forecast for December. If this was Spring maybe I'd find it marginally interesting, but I'll just tune out until Thursday for the most part.

But thanks for the info of course Andy.

Mid 30's three days in a row here.. 0.2" dusting yesterday. 17 this morning. Now time for the floods. LOL

Totally agree with solid 1-3 rain event and potential for isolated 4 inch amounts, especially across the 'Dacks and Catskills (and probably higher terrain east of the HV, too.)

N-S valleys may see channeled flow from south enhancing wind if atmosphere isn't stabilized; depending on how strong the low-topped NCFRB is this could bring down strong winds aloft at 925 thru 80 hPa. To me it has some similarities to the 17 Nov system.

Also forecast hodographs indicate strongly backed flow in the lowest 7K feet or so, however BUFKIT profiles for Albany circa 78 hours out are moist and isothermal.

[Logan11]

All I recall is that December 1988 was very cold..maybe colder than I see on the current models for this year. But the wasn't much in the way of snow in ALB. Heck the whole 88-89 winter I think only 20" or so fell in ALB...it was horrific.

The outlook would appear to be bleak for our region into early December. Does anyone else see similarities to 1988-89? July 1988 had a big heatwave, just like this year, followed by a coolish October and warmish November. There wasn't a whole lot of snow in these parts that winter. It was also a La Nina year.

[Logan11]

Definitely the top few inches kinda frosty here, but won't take much to lose that by Wednesday. Maybe high up its frozen more.

At least it was cold and wintry tonight for the CP Rail Holiday Train as it stopped in Delanson tonight. That was a fun event as usual. 24F now here.

Has the ground froze in the higher elevations? Just asking because of potential flooding concerns.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

All I recall is that December 1988 was very cold..maybe colder than I see on the current models for this year. But the wasn't much in the way of snow in ALB. Heck the whole 88-89 winter I think only 20" or so fell in ALB...it was horrific.

I just watched JBs long ranger and he continues to say that after December, winter will be pretty much over for much of the east; granted he seems to be aiming this message at his Mid-Atlantic and Ohio valley clients. I'm left asking the question: has it even got started? I mean, there is nothing spectacular in the short and medium range. Still, I can't help wondering if, once the high latitude blocking supposedly breaks down after December, the storm track and below normal temperatures will shift north. A negative AO would seem to be bad news for those of us in the north country and SE Canada if last year is anything to go by.

He did seem to hint that there will be a changeover to snow on Wednesday. I'll believe that when I see it. Rain-to-snow situations rarely deliver I've found.

[Flying MXZ]

Definitely the top few inches kinda frosty here, but won't take much to lose that by Wednesday. Maybe high up its frozen more.

At least it was cold and wintry tonight for the CP Rail Holiday Train as it stopped in Delanson tonight. That was a fun event as usual. 24F now here.

Same here. Ths "sunny side" of the hills won't take much to thaw but the shaded and northern exposure areas might hold onto the frost for awhile.

[Wx4cast]

A good chunk of my backyard which faces north and is shadowed by my house is frozen in most areas to at least 5-6 inches depth.

====

From this mornings 11/29 ALB AFD:

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT TUE NT

INTO WED...

IMPRESSIVE THETA-E ADVECTION COMMENCES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A

CHAOTIC HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS FAST APPROACHING. IN

ADDITION...LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH GREATER THAN 50KTS

EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL

DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME STEADY AND

HEAVIER TUESDAY NIGHT.

THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH THAT

WILL BEGIN TO OPEN AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM

PERIOD. VERY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THE INCREASING WIND FIELD

AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT...CONDITIONS SEEM TO

INCREASE TOWARD WEDNESDAY AS THE FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE UPPER

JET AND THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD

DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD

FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA`S. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO

TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ALL AVAILABLE ENSEMBLES...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL

MODELS ALL SUGGEST A RATHER ROBUST PRECIPITATION EVENT ON

WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS BETWEEN 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL

WITH 850MB WINDS OF AROUND 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

TRAJECTORIES FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FAVOR ENHANCED UPSLOPE

CONDITIONS FOR THE CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS. FURTHERMORE...CROSS

SECTIONS ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF -EPV WHICH SUGGESTS

INSTABILITY FOR PERIOD/S/ OF HEAVY RAINFALL. PER EXTENSIVE

COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S AND HPC...WE WILL WITHHOLD

HEADLINES AT THE PRESENT TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO STRONGLY WORD THE

HWO AND AWAIT FUTURE GUIDANCE AND HPC/RFC GUIDANCE.

BASED ON THE TIMING...FROPA OCCURS RIGHT AT 00Z THURSDAY WHICH

SHOULD END THIS BOUT OF PRECIP RATHER QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO

NORTHEAST AND COLD ADVECTION TO QUICKLY TAKE ITS PLACE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPER WARM

ADVECTION ARRIVES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY COULD ECLIPSE 50F FOR PORTIONS

OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND NW CT WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. DESPITE

THE STRONG WIND FIELD...SEEMS IT WILL HAVE ITS CHALLENGES REACHING

THE VALLEY. HOWEVER...FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THIS MAY PROVE TO

BE AN ISSUE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON

BAY SOUTHEAST TO THE WESTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND...AND WILL BE

THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF

WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO CHESAPEAKE BAY. MUCH

COLDER AIR...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS OF MINUS 8 TO MINUS 10...WILL

BEGIN TO POUR INTO THE REGION...CAUSING RAIN TO MIX WITH AND THEN

CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. AT THE SAME TIME THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR

WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE CONVEYOR OFF TO THE EAST. POPS GO FROM

CATEGORICAL FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD TO CHANCE SOUTH AND

LIKELY NORTH BY LATE EVENING...THEN TO CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF

THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET

FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THE LOW AND

MID 20S WEST AND THE LOW 30S EAST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE

PRECIP AS A MIX WE HAVE HELD DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS...AT LEAST FOR THE

TIME BEING...WITH THE ONLY AREA TO SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE

AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ABOVE ELEVATIONS OF 1500

FEET. SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...HAVE

HELD DOWN THE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS...AS THIS WILL DEPEND ON BOTH

THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP AS WELL AS HOW FAST THE COLD AIR MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. NORTH IT WILL

BE CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND

THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THERE MAY BE

SOME INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE AND IT SHOULD BE DRY. HIGHS WILL VARY

FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF

SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES TO THE MID 40S IN THE HUDSON

VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE

REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO

MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND THE UPPER TROF ROTATES TO THE

NORTHEAST.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT

AS A SECOND UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE

MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IT BRINGS A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE

REGION. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ASIDE FROM WHAT THE

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP OFF THE LAKES...SO THE FRONT IS NOT

EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIP EXCEPT TO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND

ADIRONDACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. IT WILL BE

COLDER...WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S IN

THE HUDSON VALLEY.

PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WILL FINISH OUT THE WEEK...WITH

CLOUDY SKIES AND A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED

SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS VS DRY AND

PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. IT BE CHILLY AND RATHER WINDY ON

SATURDAY AS A GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN A LOW OVER THE CANADIAN

MARITIMES AND A HIGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO

THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A CONTINUED FLOW OF COLD AIR OUT OF

EASTERN CANADA SO HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO

REACH FREEZING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN

VERMONT. IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER...UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...IN

THE HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE

MID 20S.

Sort of validates what I posted yesterday. Also continue to have excellent signals in the models for a strong NCFRB on Wednesday. Upcoming event has some similarities to 17 Nov's event and Decemeber 1, 2006

[Wx4cast]

Here's from the 06z 29 Nov NAM.

First is a TSEC for Albany, NY for the entire run of the NAM. Contoured and colored RH in %, winds with heights in knots. Temps in Degrees Celsius and vertical motion. Looks like the worst of this system for Albany based on NAM is in the 60-69 hour time frame or basically around Noon thru 9pm or so.

Next is a TSEC of theta-e over time with winds; notice a decrease of theta-e with height (inside the yellow ellipse) during the approx 18z to 00z period of Wednesday. This indicates instability (albeit small) but for cool season could be enough for the NCRFB to transport stronger winds aloft downwards.

The following are Forecast Skewts and Hodographs for Albany. VT are located over the upper right of each panel:

The following are forecast maps of PMSL, QPF, 850 isotherms (in 5 degree C intervals) and surface winds (VT times for each panel is located in the upper left of the charts):