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Upstate NY / North Country Thread Fall 2010


NYWx

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yeah, its way too early to get down on things but the early signs sure arent positive as some have mentioned..

but it still can be an exciting winter....i havent been posting much anywhere because i dont see any signs of anything....until its within a few days on the models, best to keep enthusiasm tempered for now, but as you point out, things can change dramatically, at some point in the future.

i dont mind the nice weather right now to be honest.....its once we get a snowpack going, i dont want to see any rain and mild temps......hopefully thats what happens....but for now, ill take it and enjoy it.

It wouldn't surprise me if we saw a couple of inches of snow on Friday at some point. Nothing spectacular, but a start.

JB had a video today in which he compared the CFS forecast for january with the European. The CFS shows a classic january in these parts, while the Euro seems to show a torch for the east. Given the track record of the CFS lately, I'd bet on the Euro

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HAZARDS: A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS: UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK

VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE

ELSEWHERE. MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW AND

SLEET.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ038&warncounty=NYC043&firewxzone=NYZ038&local_place1=Herkimer+NY&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory

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Depends on whether it can get in here while the upper air can still support flakes. That stuff down south of us won't get here...will dry up. The push that gets us is much later.

But if not flakes then FZRAPL because it is only 27.9F here at noon with DPs in the teens.

Snowing and sleeting in most of nj which was unexpected..Even getting heavy sleet where i am, on the jersey shore..I wonder what that will translate to back home..

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Things may be a bit interesting tonight around here...30.2/16.0 right now. Parts of the ground in my yard are a bit crispy well so the ground is starting to cool off as we finish up November. Safe travels for all the Black Friday shoppers. Some shoppers are sure to get caught off guard tonight with a sudden onset of sleet/frz rn. We'll need quite a southerly push to move out all the cold/dry air in time.

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Im up at Massena, NY and its 26 here hoping for some snow :)

you might see some brief period of snow at the onset of the precip near 11 or midnight or so. it will quickly changeover to FRZRA though. it may just start out as IP and skip the snow altogether.

It looks to be a mess up here in Ottawa tonight and tomorrow with prolonged freezing rain. At least the forecast is no longer calling for a blowtorch tomorrow. I've heard we may get some heavy flurries on Saturday morning, so here's hoping for that!

all of those things are possible, but then we warm up next week ahead of the next storm. hopefully that can end up being a classic frontal rain to heavy wet snowflake situation that heralds the start of winter for good if the EPO cooperates.

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Generally running a little colder than the NWS ALY forecasts. They have a low of 32 in the metro areas of the CD and yet it is 31 at the airport right now.

Out here I'm at 26.6F. It certainly looks icy later on.

Things may be a bit interesting tonight around here...30.2/16.0 right now. Parts of the ground in my yard are a bit crispy well so the ground is starting to cool off as we finish up November. Safe travels for all the Black Friday shoppers. Some shoppers are sure to get caught off guard tonight with a sudden onset of sleet/frz rn. We'll need quite a southerly push to move out all the cold/dry air in time.

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you might see some brief period of snow at the onset of the precip near 11 or midnight or so. it will quickly changeover to FRZRA though. it may just start out as IP and skip the snow altogether.

all of those things are possible, but then we warm up next week ahead of the next storm. hopefully that can end up being a classic frontal rain to heavy wet snowflake situation that heralds the start of winter for good if the EPO cooperates.

when do you think the precip will start in Ottawa?

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Nice light coat of ice on the trees this morning (1/16th of an inch or so). Pines were rather pretty.

It's warmed up a bit, sun is out, ice is mostly all melted, and with the wind things are drying out.

Not a bad day all in all, though I must admit 10 days ago I was hoping to be enjoying a good bit of snow!

Soon enough Snowman.gif

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Any ice overnight here couldn't have amounted to much. It was 30F at 11:30 PM, but up to 37F at 7 AM where it peaked. Then the drop began and now just 31F and puddle on the back stoop has frozen solid. Pretty stiff wind also. Basically a thankless wx pattern. I see the far reaches of the Lake Erie snow band are all the way into the southern Dacks.

Nice light coat of ice on the trees this morning (1/16th of an inch or so). Pines were rather pretty.

It's warmed up a bit, sun is out, ice is mostly all melted, and with the wind things are drying out.

Not a bad day all in all, though I must admit 10 days ago I was hoping to be enjoying a good bit of snow!

Soon enough Snowman.gif

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I know many (most?) in this subforum are pre-occupied with the current LES event but I thought I would bump up this main thread to just say Tues PM and Wednesday look to be quite interesting event with wind rain and some (NCRFB) convective potential followed by the chance for a quick change to snow/sleet IF NYS doesn't get dry-slotted. Next weekend also has some interesting potential and possibilities of the wintry kind!

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Nice snowy morning here in Binghamton. First snow on the ground I've seen at my house (valley-level) this season.

My participation in any lake effect event this far south and east is usually not a whole lot more than this. With an occasional notable exception!

I like the idea of keeping the LES events as a separate subtopic here on this board. Not that I begrudge the snowbelt guys their fun.

Here's to a good winter for ALL of us. The Southern Tier is due for a good winter...but I have my doubts about this year. We've had our ten feet of snow seasons here...though it's been a while!

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I know many (most?) in this subforum are pre-occupied with the current LES event but I thought I would bump up this main thread to just say Tues PM and Wednesday look to be quite interesting event with wind rain and some (NCRFB) convective potential followed by the chance for a quick change to snow/sleet IF NYS doesn't get dry-slotted. Next weekend also has some interesting potential and possibilities of the wintry kind!

I've been keeping my eye on that set-up..

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